U.S. Indices surged on Friday, recouping some of the recent losses. Upside came despite the weakness in Amazon (AMZN) shares after the company ramped up its FY26 CapEx view. Gains were led by Tech and Industrials, with semiconductors surging, which are largely seen as a beneficiary of the hikes in CapEx plans from tech behemoths. However, it was the RUSSELL 2000 that outperformed, followed by the Dow, which crossed 50,000 for the first time. The heavy caps, Google, Meta and Amazon underperformed on Friday – weighing on the Communication and Consumer Discretionary sector. Health Care was also green, albeit the Medicare providers were hit following Molina (MOH) earnings (-30%), weighing on Centene (CNC) and initially others like UNH, HUM and ELV, albeit the latter three stocks managed to turn losses around. The risk on trade supported cyclical currencies with both the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar outperforming, with Sterling and the Canadian Dollar also gaining, while the havens – JPY, USD and CNH underperformed. Note, CAD was also supported by the jobs report, while Japanese traders were tentative ahead of the election on Sunday. T-Notes were ultimately little changed across the curve with a slightly flatter bias while attention largely turns to next week’s events, including US NFP and CPI, as well as Treasury issuance. Data on Friday saw the University of Michigan beat on the headline, while inflation expectations were revised down for the 1-year but revised up marginally for the 5-10 year. Crude prices settled in the green in choppy trade as attention resided on the outcome of US/Iran talks, which appear to have gotten off to a good start, but discussions will continue. Crypto prices rebounded from the recent slump, while Gold and Silver also surged. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said current monetary policy is well positioned and roughly neutral, allowing flexibility for supply-side developments, with future decisions to remain data-dependent. He is cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook, projecting 2.2% growth in 2026, and sees the job market as stabilising in a low-hire, low-fire environment, with recent softness tied to reduced demand and immigration challenges. On inflation, Jefferson reaffirmed the Fed’s strong commitment to price stability, viewing tariffs as a one-time driver of 2025 inflation, with pressures expected to ease in 2026. He noted that stronger productivity could help temper inflation, and while upside risks remain, inflation should moderate, with December PCE estimated at 2.9% Y/Y – in line with Fed Chair Powell’s view. Meanwhile, Fed Member Daly said she keeps a “very open mind” on interest rates and currently leans toward more rate cuts in 2026, though it is unclear whether that would mean one or two cuts. She supported the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady but noted that a case could have been made for a cut. Daly emphasised that to justify easing, the Fed would either need greater confidence that inflation is sustainably falling or see more signs of weakness in the labour market, which she views as more vulnerable than inflation at present. She observed that many workers feel they are walking a “knife’s edge,” and if the labour market shifts from a “no firing” to a “some firing” environment, the Fed may need to respond with rate cuts. However, she also stated she would be comfortable holding rates steady for longer if inflation were to reaccelerate. The University of Michigan preliminary report for February, saw Sentiment unexpectedly rise to 57.3 from 56.4, despite the forecasted drop to 55. Current Conditions also unexpectedly lifted, printing 58.3 (exp. 54.9) from 55.4. Expectations fell more than expected to 56.6 from 57.0 (exp. 56.7). Inflation expectations were mixed. The 1yr fell to 3.5% from 4.0% while the 5yr ticked higher to 3.4% from 3.3%. UoM Director Hsu noted that sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings. “Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread”. Elsewhere, Oil closed Friday with a gain of 0.4% while Gold surged from overnight lows ending the session with a 2.3% gain.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1909 points on Friday and is now ahead by 3552 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.97% higher at a price of 6932.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1206 points higher for a 2.47% gain at a price of 50,115.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.15% higher at a price of 25,075.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.89% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 3.89% higher at a price of 56,363.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% lower.
The Euro closed 0.11% lower at $1.1814.
The British Pound closed 0.41% lower at $1.3609.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.78% closing at $157.17
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points lower at 4.51%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.84%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower at 4.21%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.41% higher at $63.55 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.33% higher at $4966.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. The only other news of note is a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 4.00 pm and speeches from Fed Members Waller at 6.30 pm and Waller at 8.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Last week was extremely volatile that ultimately yielded no results. Three consecutive down days were followed by a sharp snapback on Friday, leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat for the week. The Friday rally had all the hallmarks of a mechanically driven move rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment. Entering Friday’s session, the market was firmly in a negative-gamma regime. In this environment, market makers are effectively forced to trade with the market—buying as it rises and selling as it falls—which amplifies moves in both directions. Once the market began moving higher, the negative-gamma positioning created a feedback loop that accelerated the rally. The move continued until the S&P 500 reached approximately 6,900—the estimated zero-gamma level. At that point, market makers likely flipped into positive gamma, becoming sellers on rallies and buyers on dips, which capped upside and brought stability for most of the afternoon session. It was only in the final minutes of trading that the index gained further. This move higher saw the VIX close over 18% lower at a price of 17.76. Overall, it appeared that much of the move was a mechanical unwind in a negative-gamma regime, with call holders monetising gains while downside protection remained firmly in place. Additionally, most of Friday’s trading volume was concentrated in ODTE, primarily on the call side. This zero-DTE call buying likely added fuel to the rally, creating additional hedging demand that accelerated the move into the 6,900 area. Helped by the 4% rally in the Nikkei the S&P is trading higher at a price of 6935 as I go to post. Last week’s calls worked really well. After the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 6821 average long position the market subsequently rallied to my revised 6857 T/P level. Early Friday morning the S&P sold off to my next buy level at 6745 as emailed to my Platinum Members before rallying 200 handles. This move higher saw my 6787 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 6975/6900 with a lower 6921 ‘Closing Stop’. If executed, I will have a T/P level at 6948. The S&P has short-term support from 6830/6855 where I will again be a buyer with a 6805 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 6886.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro just missed Thursday’s buy rang before having a small rally into Friday’s New York close. I will not chase the Euro higher as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1670/1.1750 with a higher 1.1595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1815.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 96.00/96.80 with the same 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 97.30.
Russell 2000
My Russell plan worked well as after the market hit my initial 2560 buy level we rallied to my 2610 T/P level and I am now flat. It was an impressive rally as the Russell ended Friday’s session over 4% higher than the lows printed early Friday morning. Thankfully we have ne sell level and are still flat. The Russell has short-term resistance from 2710/2770 where I will be a seller with a 2825 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2660.
FTSE 100
My latest 10400 average short position worked well as the market sold off to my 10340 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading at a price of 10420 as I go to post. We have short-term resistance from 10460/10560 where I will again be a seller with a higher 10625 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10390. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
While the NASDAQ 100 made its all-time high on October 29, 2025 and the S&P its ATH last month, on January 28, the Dow only made its latest all-time high on Friday when the key round number resistance of 50,000 was finally breached. Meanwhile turbulence is amping up across the breadth of financial markets, as demonstrated by the drama in Cryptos and Precious Metals. As the Dow made a new high last week, the global universe of software stocks were being summarily dismissed from the Great Bull Market. However, this morning the Nikkei surged 4% to another ATH on the back of Prime Minister Takaichi’s stunning victory in the snap elections yesterday. This is helping global assets to recover some of last week’s carnage. On Friday. The Dow hit my sell range for a now 50000 short position. I will only add to this position at 50300 with a now higher 50505 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 49820 and reassess if triggered. If any of my above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to Thursday’s sell range despite trading in a wide range over the past two trading sessions. Today, I will lower my sell level to 25310/25510 with a lower 25655 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24130. I still do not want to be a buyer of the NDX at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund never came close to my buy range before consolidating above 128.00. Today, I will raise my buy level slightly to 126.90/127.70 with a higher 126.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 128.25. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well. Early Friday morning, Gold hit my 4700-buy level before rallying over $250. This move higher saw my revised 4853 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Gold has short-term support from 4730/4800 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 4595 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4910. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Wrong! Incredible volatility in Silver over the past two trade sessions with price ranges hitting historic levels. On Thursday evening I was stopped out of my latest 80.70 average long position below my 77.55 stop at 75.59 which was the closing price in New York. Subsequently, Silver made a low on Friday morning at 64.10, which was 45% below the price level recorded the previous Friday. This morning, Silver is trading at a price of 81.20 having hit an overnight high at 82.20. We have short-term support below from 69.10/73.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 66.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 75.80
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