U.S. Indexes closed were mixed to end the week, with the NASDAQ 100 underperforming once again. The latest jitters were sparked following reports that OpenAI is leaning towards delaying its IPO until 2027 with CEO Altman insisting on a USD 1 Trillion valuation for the IPO. Adding the most pressure to the NDX included Broadcom (AVGO -3%), Nvidia (-0.7%), Micron (MU), and Qualcomm (QCOM.). Apple saw a bounce after seeing the biggest selloff in over a year, with the latest news being the Vision Pro and Smart glasses chief is to leave for OpenAI. In FX, Dollar strength took a pause, amid lower US yields as the continued drop in oil prices weighed. EUR/USD gains were limited by Trump threatening countries, particularly European, with 100% tariffs if they impose a Digital Services Tax on US companies. Precious metals benefited from the drop in US yields, allowing spot Gold to hit highs of 4097. At the Fed, Kashkari, a 2026 voter concerned on inflation as is in fitting with the broader committee, confirmed his view on rates, seeing one rate hike in 2026, then holding through 2027. Oil prices continued their march lower with WTI settling below USD 70/ barrel for the first time since the war began. The narrative driving price action remains the view that oil flows will return to pre-war levels undisturbed. A trilateral US-Israel-Lebanon agreement was announced, though Hezbollah reportedly rejected it. Meanwhile, the UAE sent a false missile alert; oil prices briefly spiked before paring as the alert was downplayed. US data included upward revisions to University of Michigan Sentiment and expectations while current conditions were revised lower; meanwhile, the US international trade deficit rose in May, notably above expectations as imports grew and exports declined. The international trade deficit rose to USD 105.8 billion (prev. 83 billion) in May, bigger than the USD 88.5 billion expected. Exports declined to USD 207.7 billion (prev. 219.5 billion) while imports grew to USD 313.4 billion (prev. 302.5 billion). Wholesale Inventories rose 0.3% M/M to USD 944 billion while retail inventories jumped 0.6% M/M to USD 832.2 billion. Oxford Economics notes that the data points to net trade imposing a larger drag on Q2 GDP growth. However, “strong business investment figures and an offsetting boost from inventory accumulation means GDP should remain above 2% in the quarter”. Fed Member Kashkari is concerned about inflation, especially in services; seeing some signs of life in the labour market. He adds that the inflation move up is not just about oil and the Middle East and is not seeing the all-clear sign in the Middle East. The Minneapolis Fed President sees rates on hold in 2027, and has one rate hike pencilled in for 2026, which is the same as the median SEP in the latest FOMC’s dot plot. Going to have to see how no forward guidance works, Kashkari noted. Lastly, he noted that the labour market is not causing inflation right now, but rather is being driven by supply issues, including the AI buildout, and that “AI is probably pushing up market interest rates”. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 4% while a softer Dollar saw Gold end Friday’s session with a gain of 1%.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 870 points on Friday and is now ahead by 10442 points for June after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.05% lower at a price of 7354.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 44 points lower for a 0.09% loss at a price of 51,876.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.09% lower at a price of 29,118.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.68% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.16% lower at a price of 69,247.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.10% lower.
The Euro closed 0.14% higher at $1.1385.
The British Pound closed 0.15% higher at $1.3198.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.05% closing at $161.72.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.74%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.85%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.37%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.78% lower at $69.20 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.97% higher at $4067.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we Have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and U.K. Mortgage Approvals at 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am and U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Stocks finished essentially flat again on Friday, marking the third straight day that the S&P 500 has moved by 0.1% or less. I cannot remember the last time that happened. That was not the case for the NASDAQ 100, which fell more than 1% on Friday and finished the week down more than 4%. What is interesting is that the price action has tracked the Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which declined roughly 7% this week. Semiconductors continue to be the primary driver of the broader market, and as long as that remains the case, the market is likely to stay vulnerable. While the distribution has shifted somewhat, the SMH heatmap still shows that the ETF’s top 10 holdings remain relatively elevated in implied volatility rankings. This week marks a turning point in liquidity flows, at least as they relate to Treasury issuance. On June 30, Treasury coupon settlements will total $64.1 billion, while Treasury bill paydowns will amount to roughly $4.9 billion. Then, on July 2, net issuance returns with a $1.5 billion Treasury bill settlement. Beginning next week, settlement amounts will increase significantly through the end of July and are expected to remain elevated into early September. Historically, periods of heavy Treasury settlements have not been favorable for the SMH. Since October 28, the ETF has risen on just 16 of the 35 Treasury bill settlement days, with an average decline of 40 basis points. By comparison, it has risen on 85 of 131 non-settlement days, posting an average gain of roughly 55 basis points. The divergence is both wide and noticeable. While it could simply be the result of chance, the gap in both the percentage of winning days and the magnitude of returns appears too large to dismiss outright. Of course, only time will tell. The longer this relationship persists, the less likely it is to be purely coincidental. Not surprisingly, the pattern is very similar for the NASDAQ 100, which has risen on just 12 of the 35 settlement days since October 28, or 34.3% of the time, compared with gains on 80 of 131 non-settlement days, or 61.1% of the time. The average move on a settlement day has been a decline of nearly 42 basis points, versus an average gain of 21 basis points on non-settlement days. This week will likely be driven by implied volatility as it rises ahead of multiple headline events, including new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first appearance at the ECB Forum in Sintra on Wednesday, July 1. What has become, in recent years, the ECB’s version of Jackson Hole will feature the familiar central bank policy panel on stage with Warsh, joining Christine Lagarde, Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada, and Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England. The discussion begins at 1.00 pm London Time. This will be Warsh’s first public appearance outside of an FOMC setting, so markets will be eager to see whether he says anything that differs from his remarks at the post-meeting press conference. If there is a day that could be particularly rocky, Wednesday would be it, especially with the June jobs report due on Thursday, July 2. We could see volatility rise sharply throughout the day on July 1 as markets react to Warsh’s comments and, more importantly, hedge ahead of the jobs report. Overnight, despite the negative political backdrop the S&P has rallied over 35 Handles. This is a holiday shortened week with U.S. Markets closed on Friday for Independence Day and is traditionally a bullish week. After the S&P traded the whole of Thursday’s buy range for a 7305 average long position, the market rallied to my revised 7332 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 7440/7465 with the same 7483 tight ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 7320/7345 where I will be a small buyer with a 7299 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7415. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7375. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1490 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 101.60/102.30 with a lower 103.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 101.10.
Russell 2000
The Russell rallied to my 3015-sell level. I am still short with the same 2960 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 3085 while leaving my 3155 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to trade in narrow ranges and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 10280/10350 with the same 10205 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 10420.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market made a new all-time high on Thursday. This move higher saw the Dow trade the whole of my sell range for a 52450 average short position before selling off to my revised 52240 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has resistance from 52250/52550 where I will again be a seller with a lower 52755 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 51930.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX traded in a wide range since Thursday with plenty of two-way price action. The NDX traded the whole of my buy range for a 29040 average long position before rallying to my 29430 T/P level and I am now flat. Friday’s late sell-off saw the NDX test its 50-Day Moving Average at 28890 before closing just above this key pivot point. Today, my only interest in buying the NDX is on a further move lower to 28350/28550 with a lower 28095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 28810. I will now lower my sell level to 29650/29850 with a lower 30005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 29390. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still short the Bund from last week at a price of 127.35. I will add to this trade at 128.15 while leaving 128.85 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 126.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still long Gold at an average rate of 4068 with the same 3945 ‘Closing Stop’. Gold had a decent bounce on Friday as flagged by the 14-Day RSI hitting 25. Today, I will leave my 4115 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at a price of 57.40 with the same 60.90 T/P level. I will add to this position at 54.20 with the same 52.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments