Firstly, I would like to wish all our subscribers and premium members a very Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year and to thank everyone for their support over the last 10 months.
Currencies are opening little changed this morning after European and US markets extended last Friday’s large Asian Session rebound in the US Dollar. The Equity market losses on Friday reflected the decision by US House of Representatives leader, John Boehner, to put the House into recess until next Thursday after failing to gain enough votes to pass his Plan B for the Fiscal Cliff. However US Equity markets recovered their worst levels earlier in the day by rallying into the close after Boehner said that discussions on the Fiscal Cliff would continue over the Christmas break as well as optimistic statements from President Obama that deal could still be done by Dec 31st. Over the weekend Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, who formally tendered his resignation on Friday, expressed his willingness to serve as Prime Minister in the next Government following elections which are due to be held on Feb 24th 2013. This will require that the leaders of the parties who are able to form a coalition after the February election to support the motion. US Economic data was mixed on Friday with Durable Goods Orders exceeding expectations whilst the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell back to 72.9 from a preliminary reading of 74.5.
This morning we have the UK Home Track Price Index whilst we have no data from the US or Europe with the latter closed for the day. The US markets all close at 6.15pm GMT today.
Note: As I am travelling on Thursday my next update will be on Friday morning.
Mar S&P 500
The S&P worked really well as shortly after the market opened in New York we dropped down to my buy zone with a 1416 low before having a nice rally to 1428. I bought the S&P at 1418 and I took a nice gain at 1426 and I am now flat. Friday was one of the largest volume days of the year with over 5.1 billion shares traded on the NYSE with 82% of total volume on the downside. As noted earlier the market closes at 6.15 pm and traditionally this is one of the slowest days of the year. I have bought the S&P this morning in small size at 1418 as I look for the Gap to close and I will leave a 1413 stop on this position. Again if I am stopped out I will use my 5 Handle buy back rule with a stop on any new position at what ever low is put in before I am taken long a second time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold worked really well as the Williams Index and Bollinger Band kicked in and I took a nice gain at 1659 on my 1642 long position and I am now flat.The 1670/1675 area should act as good resistance and 1635 recent low will now be strong support. I am a small seller from 1668/1673 with a 1678 stop and I will also look to buy Gold on any dip to 1638/1645 with a 1632 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Shortly after I posted on Friday Silver dropped down to my buy zone with a 29.60 low. I went long at 29.70 and I have taken a nice gain at 30.30 this morning to make up for last Thursday’s loss and I am now flat. Today I am only interested in buying Silver on any drop to 29.70/30.00 with a 29.55 stop.
USD/JPY
Looking at the Daily Sentiment Index for Yen Bulls, it is at 7% which is the lowest in 7 1/2 years and on this basis USD/JPY is ripe for a turnaround. This morning and over the next week I am a small seller on any rally to 8470/8500 with a 8540 stop.
Eur/USD
No change from Friday as I still look to sell any rally to 1.3270/1.3295 with a 1.3315 stop.
Recent Comments