The ECB and BOE policy meetings came and went with no change to either policy rates. The BOE did not extend its current QE programme beyond the £375 billion that was completed this month even though there was some speculation that it would do so. Spain held a Bond Auction which included the first 20 Year Bonds since May 2011 and has now completed their borrowing programme for the year and, as a result, 10 Year Bond yields rose 16 basis points to 5.85%. US data was positive especially the September Trade report which saw an unexpected 3% lift to exports which will revise GDP by +0.4% and the Weekly Jobless No’s fell to 355K. Early this morning we had much better than expected Retail Sales and Industrial Production from China.
Today is very light on economic data apart from US Consumer Confidence.
Dec S&P 500
The market continues to sell off with Apple leading the way. Apple shares are worth 5% of the S&P and their shares are now down 25% over the last 6 weeks. I had a look at the chart and it is way oversold and outside its Bollinger Band. Support for Apple comes in at 528 and I would expect some bounce off this trend line. As as I keep saying we still have this open Gap in the S&P at 1362 and I will be an aggressive buyer between 1362/1370 with a 1358 stop. Just like Apple, the S&P is very over sold and at the bottom of both its Bollinger Band and Williams Index. The market is now below its 200 day Moving Average at 1380 and I would expect the market to rally in front of 1362 as we are now down over 100 handles from the high made after QE3 was announced.
Dec BUND
The Bund continues to rally with 10 year yields at an unsustainable 1.3%. The Bund has rallied to my sell level and I have gone short this morning at 143.20. I will leave my stop at 143.50.
Dec FTSE
I was stopped out of my 5780 long at breakeven and I am now flat. The FTSE is approaching oversold levels and I will look to go long on any dip to the 5710/5730 area with a 5690 stop. I do not want to be short any Equity markets at this time as we are approaching very important support levels.
Dec DAX
The Dax has followed the other Equity markets lower and we have very good support at 7120 which is the low made two weeks ago. This morning I will look to buy from 7110/7135 with a 7095 stop.
Euro/USD
I am very surprised how well the Euro has held given how weak the Equity markets are. I will look to go long from 1.2690/1.2720 in small size with a wider stop at 1.2660.
USD/JPY
This currency pair continues to whipsaw and I was stopped out of my 7995 long at 7970 and I am now flat. I am going to stay flat and just watch the price action.
Thanks for the aggresive buying call Bryan.