The US and European Equity markets were quiet to firm ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payrolls but the big news is the weakness of the Euro. The ECB cut its growth and inflation forecasts for the Monetary Union and President Dragi said yesterday, at his press conference, that the Euro-Zone won’t start to shake off its slump until the second half of 2013 leaving the door ajar for further interest rate reductions. The Euro has fallen over 120 points against the US Dollar on this news and looks like we have seen the top of the Euro at 1.3130 for some time. The US markets were helped by the Weekly Jobless Claims falling 25K to 370K versus expectations of 380K as the effects of Hurricane Sandy begin to wear off. Asian stocks rose this morning to have its largest streak of weekly gains in three months while European Equities closed yesterday at an 18 month high.
The markets will be quiet this morning ahead of Non-Farm Pay Rolls due at 1.30pm and these Nos may still be effected By Hurricane Sandy. We also have the University of Michigan Survey due at 2.55pm and this is followed by Consumer Credit at 3.00pm.
Dec S&P 500
Yesterday was much quieter day in comparison to the fireworks of Wednesday as markets go on hold ahead of today’s Non-Farm Payrolls. I do not like having a position into the No’s and prefer to react to the news after. If we get good No’s I will still look to short a rally from here and I will be a seller from 1424/1428 with a 1431 stop and on a weak No, I will be a buyer from 1399/1403 with a 1395 stop. Overall it is very hard to be short as we are in the seasonally strong time of the year for Equity markets and a break and close over 1425 will be very bullish.
Nasdaq 100 Rolling Contract
The Nasdaq worked really well yesterday as shortly after the open we traded down to my buy level with a 2623 low. I went long at 2626 and I took a nice gain at 2660 and I am now flat. This morning I will still look to buy any dip again to the 2620/2630 with the same 2605 stop. I do not want to be short at this time.
Dec FTSE
The FTSE worked really well as shortly after we posted yesterday the FTSE traded up to my 5925 sell level with a 5928 high. As the FTSE is not as volatile as the other Equity Indices I do not look for as much profit in this market and I took a nice gain at 5900 on this short position and I am now flat. This morning I will be a seller from 5925/5940 with a 5945 stop as the market is still overbought on a daily basis.
Euro/USD
Very lucky yesterday in deciding not to have a position into the ECB press conference. The Euro looks like we have put in a major top at 1.3130 on Wednesday and this market is now a sell on rallies rather than a buy on dips. It is very hard to see the Euro recovering as we are now back in recession as these austerity measures begin to bite. Today I am a seller on any rally to 1.2960/1.2990 with a 1.3010 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as Gold just missed my buy level yesterday and I still want to buy the market if we dip to 1670/1680 with a 1658 stop. The 1668/1675 is key support and I would expect a decent rally if we trade to this level before Gold trades lower.
March BUND
The Bund has rolled to the March contract with almost a 200 point difference from the December Contract. As there is such a difference in price I want to observe this new range before making a trade and I will take a look at the Bund again next week.
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