The two big events in the past 24 hours were a 4.8% slide in the oil price and a surge in European risk assets. The oil price is now back to its lowest point since mid-November with WTI oil sitting at $44.51 a barrel having fallen below $44 overnight and below the level that prevailed before OPEC’s oil production ceiling. In the words of ABBA, it seems US shale oil production is presenting a Waterloo moment for OPEC. Meanwhile European markets have been buoyed by the prospects of centrist Macron winning the second round in the French presidential election on Sunday (May 7). European equities rose 1.2% with the French CAC40 closing 1.4% higher. Betting markets currently ascribe Macron a 91% chance of winning against the Eurosceptic Le Pen while polls put Macron at 61% of the vote.