U.S Equity Markets reversed most of Friday’s early sell-off on Coronavirus fears after President Trump announced that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. After the market closed it was announced that the President would be taken to Hospital for treatment after mixed messages about his health where he was said to have received oxygen after having trouble breathing. This morning the S&P Futures are trading higher after the President took an ill-advised drive in his motorcade before returning to spend his third night in hospital. There were also important economic data out last Friday. Non-Farm Payrolls added fewer jobs that expected, but the Unemployment rate fell by more than estimates. This indicates that the job market continues to recover. Stimulus was also in the headlines, after Democrats passed a $2.2 trillion Stimulus Package. But the Bill was seen to be dead-on-arrival once it reaches the Senate. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is still hopeful that a deal can be reached, while White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said the White House would approve a deal in the range of $1.5 trillion. Euro-Zone inflation data for September were weaker than expected, falling versus August and signalling the need for continued economic support. The European Union and the U.K. are scheduled to wrap up talks on their post-Brexit trading, with few signs of the negotiations making headway. Italy revised its second-quarter gross domestic product lower, indicating that the recession was deeper than previously thought. The British Chamber of Commerce released a survey showing that many businesses are not seeing a V-shaped recovery, signalling that the economic rebound will be slow. Elsewhere, Oil closed 4.44% lower as risk assets got hit while Gold fell 0.5% on Dollar strength.
To mark my 2150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 315 points on Friday and is now ahead by 401 points for October, having made 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.96% lower at a price of 3348.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points lower for a 0.48% loss at a price of 27,682.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.83% lower at a price of 11,255.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.23% higher at a price of 23,312
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1728.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at $1.2904.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% higher at 105.57 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed two basis points higher at 0.70%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis point higher at -0.53%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis point lower at 0.26%.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index closed 0.2% lower.
West Texas Intermediate closed 4.44% lower at $36.93 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% higher at $1896 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone Retail Sales and Sentix Investor Confidence at 10.00 am. This is followed U.S Markit Services PMI at 2.45 pm and finally by ISM Services PMI at 3.00 pm.
December S&P 500
As expected the S&P closed most of the larger ‘’Gap’’ after selling off on the positive Coronavirus test from President Trump. This move higher enabled me to cover my 3310 morning long position at my 3330 T/P level and I am now flat. Last week’s market action was dominated by dozens of Stimulus headlines with the S&P rallying on Stimulus progress and selling off on disagreements. However, it is noticeable that anytime the market looks like it will break lower we get a positive headline as no politician wants a crash ahead of next month’s election. This morning the S&P Futures are trading higher after Trump’s ill-advised motorcade stunt last night. This was insane as he put his co-passengers at risk. I will now lower my S&P sell level to 3378/3393 with a wider 3412 closing stop. The S&P has strong support from 3310/3325 where I will be a buyer with a 3297 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro with the market again trading in a narrow range. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1650/11710 with a higher 1.1615 tight stop. I will not chase the Euro lower, leaving my 1.1805/1.1845 sell level unchanged with the same 1.1885 stop.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will raise my buy level slightly to 93.10/93.50 with a 92.65 stop.
December DAX
The DAX never came close to Friday’s 12520 buy level before rallying to sit at 12720 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 12520/12600 with a higher 12445 stop.
December FTSE
Last week saw one of the smallest FTSE ranges of the year as we wait for some clarity on the latest Brexit timetable after more frustrating negotiations with the EU on Trade. I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 5780/5840 with a higher 5715 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Overnight the Dow rallied to my 27900 initial sell-level after President Trump took his ill-advised motorcade drive to show supporters that he is still alive. We saw a brief move lower and I covered this position at 27850 as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. As long as the Dow does not break and close over 28100 I will continue to be a seller on rallies. Today, my sell level will be from 27980/28140 with a 28305 wider stop. The Dow made a low at 27382 on Friday and this level should attract buyers on any dip. My buy level will be from 27300/27480 with a 27145 stop.
December NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 11270 buy level before rallying to my 11335 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will be an aggressive buyer from 11100/11220 with a 10995 stop. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 11480/11580 where I will be a seller with a 11705 stop.
December BUND
I am still short the Bund at a price of 174.60 from last Thursday. I will continue to add to this short-position at 175.10 with the same 175.45 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 174.40 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a small buyer from 1854/1866 with a 1842 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now lower my buy level slightly to 22.70/23.30 with a lower 22.15 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.75.
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