European Indices rose but closed well off their early morning highs after EU Leaders finally agreed a Euro 750 billion Recovery Fund following four days of marathon talks. The Euro soared on this news closing at its highest level in 18 months, since January 2019 at $1.1520. ECB Member Isabel Schnabel said the Central Bank could still increase the rate of bond purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. In the U.S, the S&P closed higher for the third consecutive trading session after the EU’s announcement boosted risk assets. On the Coronavirus front, California Governor Gavin Newsom said the increase in hospitalisations was slowing as daily infections remained below the July 17 peak for a third straight day. The COVID-19 vaccine front runners gave an update to Congress on their vaccine progress, saying they remain hopeful that a vaccine can be developed by the end of the year. Overnight Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker of the House Pelosi met to discuss the next round of stimulus where Pelosi said she was hopeful a deal can be made by the end of next week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.17% higher on growth optimism after positive vaccine data while Gold surged to close at a new nine-year high, following Silver’s 5.2% rise, closing at its highest level since 2016.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 90 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2313 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Equities
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.2%, to close at a price of 3257.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 160 points for a 0.6% gain to close at 26,840.
The Nasdaq 100 Index fell 1.1%, closing at 10,833.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.3%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index increased 2.1%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.58% lower at 22,751.
Currencies
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.7%.
The Euro rose 0.6% to $1.1521.
The British Pound gained 0.6% to $1.2732.
The Japanese Yen strengthened 0.4% to 106.80 per dollar.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped to 0.60%.
The two-year rate fell to 0.14%
Germany’s 10-year yield rose less than one basis point to -0.46%.
Britain’s 10-year yield dipped less two basis points to 0.136%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 2.2% to $41.96 a barrel.
Silver strengthened 5.2% to $20.94 per ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the UK or the Euro-Zone. At 12.00 pm we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications and this is followed at 2.00 pm by the Housing Price Index. Finally, we have Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
The ECB’s Lagarde and De Guindos are speaking this afternoon at 2.15 pm and 4.00 pm respectively.
September S&P 500
The S&P made a high yesterday afternoon at 3272, just missing my initial 3280 sell level before falling over 30 Handles into the close and I am still flat. As long as the S&P can hold the 3223/3238 short-term support then I am looking for the market to rally to my final 3280/3310 objective before we have a more meaningful sell-off. I will be a seller in this area with a 3325 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 3223/3238 with a higher 3208 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded the whole of yesterday’s sell range and I am now short at an average rate of 1.1515. The fact that the Euro broke and closed over 1.1480 is bullish and the big question is this the start of a potential longer term move higher. Too early to tell, but it is certainly my first signal. I will now move my T/P level on my short position to 1.1500 while leaving my stop unchanged at 1.1575.. Despite the Euro trading overbought I will be an aggressive buyer on any further dip to 1.1410/1.1460 with a 1.1365 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1515.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar closed 0.7% lower yesterday with the market hitting my 95.20 buy level. I will add to this trade at 94.70 with the same 94.45 tight stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 95.45 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September DAX
Frustratingly the DAX just missed my initial 13320 sell level with a 13302 high print before selling off 200 points into the New York close and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 13300/13430 with a 13505 stop. I am not going to chase the DAX higher and I will leave my 12800/12950 buy level unchanged with the same 12715 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 13230. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13020.
September FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market continues to underperform the other main Indices. I will now lower my sell level to 6285/6330 with a lower 6365 stop. The FTSE has short-term support from 6110/6160 where I will be a small buyer with a 6065 wider stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The just missed my 26650 buy level with a 26700 low print before rallying 150 points off this low into the close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 26520/26720 with a higher 26395 stop. I am not going to chase the Dow lower and I will leave my 27300/27550 sell level unchanged with the same 27725 stop.
September NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading the while of my buy range for a 10850 average long position before rallying to an overnight high so far at 10914. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my revised 10890 T/P level and I am still flat. The NASDAQ has support from 10700/10800 where I will again look to buy the market with a 10595 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 11080/11180 with a 11265 stop.
September BUND
No Change as I am still a seller from 176.60/177.00 with the same 177.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan did not work well with the market trading the whole of my sell range for a 1844 average short position before stopping me out of this position overnight at 1856. I know most of you do not trade Gold given how expensive the points are. I still do not trust this move higher in Gold but I have to respect the price action. As a result I will be a small buyer on any dip lower to 1828/1840 with a 1815 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has now doubled in price since the March low. As I have mentioned plenty of times, Silver has the potential to make further gains from here as we still trading well below the May 2011 high of $51. Even though Silver is extremely overbought I will now raise my buy level to 21.30/21.80 with a higher 20.65 stop.
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