Federal Reserve policy makers lowered their main interest rate for a second time this year and Chairman Jerome Powell said that “moderate” policy moves should be sufficient to sustain the U.S. expansion. “We took this step to help keep the U.S. economy strong in the face of some notable developments and to provide insurance against ongoing risks,” Powell told reporters Wednesday after the Fed cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2%. “Weakness in global growth and trade policy have weighed on the economy.” Treasury Yields rose, the US Dollar rallied and U.S. stocks reversed earlier losses after Powell made clear that policy makers did not expect to need deep rate cuts. The chairman has been under relentless public pressure to reduce rates from President Donald Trump, who returned to Twitter within minutes of the FOMC’s announcement to say policy makers had failed again by not cutting more and had “No ‘guts,’ no sense, no vision!” The Federal Open Market Committee decision didn’t alter expectations among futures traders for another 25 basis-point cut this year. In other news, Boris Johnson’s lawyer promised the Supreme Court the government will file a statement overnight on what it will do if it loses the landmark case over its suspension of Parliament. The second of three days of hearings has finished in the landmark case, which has the potential to derail Johnson’s Brexit strategy and even curtail his premiership.
To mark my 1900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 137 points yesterday and is now ahead by 911 points for September, having made 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 Index closed unchanged at 3006 after traded below 2980 shortly after the After the FOMC Statement was released.
The Dow Jones closed 37 points higher at 27,147, having traded to a low of 26899 before rallying 250 points into the close.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3%.
The Shanghai Composite was little changed.
Euro Stoxx 50 Futures fell 0.1%.
Currencies
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher
The Japanese Yen rose 0.5% to 107.91 per dollar.
The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 7.1014 per dollar.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.1039, having hit an earlier low of $1.1013.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 1.78%.
Germany’s 10 Year Yield fell three basis points to 0.51%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to close at $58.00 a barrel.
Gold closed lower at $1,495.42 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am and this is followed at 9.30 am by U.K. Retail Sales. At 10.00 am we have a speech by ECB’s Coeure. Next we have the Bank of England Rate Decision where no change is expected. Also at the same time we will have the latest Bank of England Minutes. At 1.30 pm we have the Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Existing Home Sales.
December S&P 500
I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a small two-point Premium to the September Contract. Friday is quadruple witching day for U.S. markets. When the quarterly expiration of futures and options on indexes and stocks occurs on the same day, surging volatility and trading can follow. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 2990 buy level before rallying to my 2997 T/P level and I am now flat. I said in yesterday’s commentary that any sell-off in the S&P would be contained ahead of tomorrow’s Expiration and that is exactly that happened with the S&P trading below 2980 before rallying 26 Handles into the close. One note of caution is the fact that the McClellan Oscillator only closed barley in positive territory with +42 print. Today I will be a buyer of the December Contract on any dip lower to 2974/2984 with a 2966 tight stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1020 buy level before rallying this morning to my 1.1045 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Euro on any dip lower to 1.0970/1.1010 with the same 1.0945 tight stop.
December Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a small seller on any rally higher to 98.50/98.90 with the same 99.30 stop.
December DAX
I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a 15-point Discount to the September Contract. I am still flat the DAX and today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 12200/12280 with a 12145 stop.
December FTSE
I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a Discount of 35 points. I will continue to be a buyer of the FTSE on dips and today my buy range will be from 7190/7230 with a 7155 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 26940 buy level with a low of 26899 before rebounding strongly to a high of 27161 ahead of the close. Unfortunately as I wanted to be flat ahead of the Powell press conference I covered this position at 26952 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the Dow from 26750/26910 with a lower 26670 stop.
December NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 7820 buy level before rallying to my revised 7850 T/P level and I am now flat. I have now rolled to the December Contract which trades at a 30-point Premium to the September Contract. As I go to press the US Indices are getting hit hard with the December NASDAQ down 50 points at 7868. I will be a buyer of this contract on any further dip lower to 7770/7830 with a 7725 stop.
December BUND
I am still flat the BUND which traded in a narrow range yesterday. Today I will leave my 172.10/172.50 buy level unchanged with the same 171.70 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1470/1480 with a 1461 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver and today I will lower my buy level slightly to 17.00/17.40 with a 16.70 stop.
Recent Comments