The US stock Indices, end the session higher propelled by higher financials, energy and technology shares. Boeing (transportation) were lower with Boeing subtracting 40+ points from the Dow by itself. Nevertheless, the major Indices rebounded from negative levels reached at midday (after a higher opening). European shares also ended the day with gains (the exception is the German Dax which fell by -0.25%). The FTSE was the main winner closing 0.90% higher helped by a weaker Pound. After the New York close the UK Guardian News Paper is reporting that the EU will offer the UK at least a three month extension to the original March 29 exit date. It is reported this morning that PM May is to seek an extension of nine to twelve months.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 86 points yesterday and is now ahead by 536 points for March, having made 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Currencies
In Forex, the price action was up and down for most of the currency pairs, with most ending the day not far from the prior day closing levels, with the markets not helped by the lack of any economic releases.
The only pair vs the US that was more than 20 pips from the Friday close was the GBPUSD. The GBP is also the weakest currency of the day (while AUD was the strongest). That pair closed 36 points lower at 1.3251 but is also well off the lows of 1.3183 reached in the New York session. Cable was hit after a U.K. Official said that a meaningful vote on Brexit was unlikely this week. ON that break, the price fell below its 100 hour MA at 1.3220 and saw stops on the break. However, less, than hour later, the price was back above the MA and moved to a NY afternoon high at 1.3259.
The EURUSD had a down up and down and up again trading day. The “down” reached down to a trend line connecting the low from March 7 with the low from March 15th. That line held. In the new day, the trend line will be a barometer for bulls and bears and this price is at 1.1320. Stay above it keeps the bulls in control, but a move below would be more short-term bearish.
Bonds
The Bonds continued to trade sideways with the 10 Year closing unchanged at 2.59%. Meanwhile the German Bund also closed unchanged at 8 basis points which is close to the 5 bp record low
Equities
Yesterday was a positive session for the US Market, but also a modest one in terms of volume at the start of a potentially busy week. Investors heightened emotional frenzy will likely be at peak level surrounding the FO,MC Statement and Powell press conference tomorrow evening. The Dow after a late rally closed 0.25% higher while the S&P and NASDAQ both closed up 0.37% and 0.34% respectively.
Commodities
Nothing much to report here with Gold and Silver unchanged while in oil WTI closed 0.75% higher at $59.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Average Earnings and Unemployment at 9.30 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey. Also at 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Construction Output. Finally at 2.00 pm we have US Factory Orders.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well on Friday with the market trading higher to my 2836 sell level before falling 12 Handles. As I wanted to bank some points for Friday’s session I covered this short position at my revised 2833.50 T/P level and I am still flat. Yesterday the S&P firmed after a down opening to close at its highest level since October. The S&P has resistance from 2852/2862 and today I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 2869 stop. I will also raise my buy level to 2805/2818 with a 2797 stop.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro with the market again trading sideways to higher as we patiently wait for the next major break in this currency pair. Today I will raise my buy level to 1.1275/1.1310 with a 1.1240 stop. The Euro has strong resistance from 1.1530/1.1570 and I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 1.1615 stop.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will again leave my 96.50/96.90 sell level unchanged with a 97.30 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
June DAX
I am still flat the DAX with the market trading in a narrow range over the past few trading sessions. Today I will raise my buy level to 11500/11560 with a 11445 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
June FTSE
The FTSE had a nice 1% rally yesterday as it looks more and more likely that Brexit will be extended for at least nine months. With the June Contract trading at a huge 85 point Discount to the Cash FTSE it is very difficult to be short as these two prices have to converge over the coming three months. Today I will now raise my buy level to 7100/7150 with a 7065 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
While the S&P is now trading 20 Handles above its early March initial high the Dow is still 250 points below its equivalent high that day. Obviously Boeing shares is a big part of the Dow’s underperformance. This negative divergence will persist until the Dow can break and close above 26200. Unfortunately the Dow just missed my 25620 buy level with a 25645 low print on Friday before rallying 200 points and I am still flat. Today I will now raise my buy level to 25680/25820 with a 25610 tight stop. Ahead of the FOMC tomorrow I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
June NASDAQ
On Friday the NASDAQ traded higher to my 7360 sell level before falling 30 points and I used this sell-off to cover my short position at my revised 7344 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to re-sell the NASDAQ again at 7380 with a T/P level of 7345 and both of these trades were filled yesterday afternoon and I am now flat. With the NADDAQ have risen close to 5% over the past week I will again look to sell the market on any further rally to 7398/7448 with a 7490 stop.
June BUND
I am still flat the BUND which again traded in a narrow range. Today I will lower my sell level to 164.70/165.10 with a 165.40 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Even though Gold is back above 1300 I still do not trust this recent small rally. Today I will leave my 1283/1291 buy range unchanged with the same 1275 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Yesterday Silver hit my 15.41 T/P level on my latest 15.31 long position and I am now flat. Today I will be a buyer from 14.90/15.20 with a 14.55 stop and a 15.35 T/P level if executed.
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