Markets over the Christmas period have been quiet with equities basically unchanged while the US Dollar is broadly weaker as US Bonds lead gains against its Global peers. In terms of data the Conference Board measure of US Consumer Confidence undershot expectations, but it did not impact the markets. Amongst G-10 pairs, the Swedish Kroner and Australian Dollar both rose 0.6% against the US Dollar while this morning the Euro has finally broke the key 1.1870/1.1900 resistance level to currently trade at 1.1940.
To mark my 1500th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 12 points yesterday and is now ahead by 906 points for December, having made 823 points in November and 657 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points.
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given. This can be viewed by clicking HERE. Please subscribe to this for new interview notifications.
The biggest asset class move over the Holiday was in US Treasuries with the US Curve flattening sharply. The 2 year yield is unchanged at 1.90%, while Yields from 5 years (-5bps) to 30 years (-8bps) are lower. The Benchmark US 10 year Yield is down 6bps to 2.41%, taking the 2/10y curve back to the decade low of 51bp seen in mid-December. The curve flattening trend reflects a longer term macro theme and is consistent with a Fed well advanced in its tightening cycle. However the sharpness of the move in the past 24 hours is also due to Quarter and Year-End rebalancing and duration flows into long end bonds amid thinner than usual liquidity at this time of year. Soft demand for a $34bn 5 year auction also contributed to underperformance in short end bonds, which follows a similarly weak result for the 2 year note on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, post-holiday trading returned to European Bonds where most markets have also rallied but German Bunds could not match gains made in US Treasuries with the Bund closing 4 bps lower at -0.37%, driving tighter yield spreads in the US – consistent with US Dollar weakness.
In Commodities, Gold and Silver have broken key resistance levels to close over 1% higher.
This morning on the Economic Front the ECB will publish it latest Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by US Trade Balance and the Weekly Jobless Claims. Finally we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 2.45 pm.
March S&P 500
The S&P has traded in an extremely narrow range since my last Daily Commentary on Friday. I am still flat as the S&P continues to hold the 2676/2682 support level. Trading has been light over the past few trading sessions with total volume last Friday one of the lowest of the year. Today I will move my buy level higher to 2675/2682 with a 2670 stop. Again if I am taken long and subsequently stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any move lower to 2648/2655 with a 2643 stop. My only interest in selling the S&P is on a further rally higher to 2705/2713 with a 2718 stop.
EUR/USD
The Euro finally broke its key 1.1860/1.1900 resistance level and I am still flat. Today I will now move my buy level to this area with a tight 1.1825 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
The overnight weakness in the Dollar sees the Dollar Index opening below its 92.50 previous support level. A break and close below 92.10 will be bearish opening up the possibility of a move lower to at least 91.00. I am still flat the Dollar and in light of this key support level I will now lower my buy level slightly to 91.70/92.15 with a 91.35 stop.
March DAX
The DAX is opening weaker this morning on the back of the stronger Euro as the market again fails to break its key 13200 resistance level. Today I will now raise my buy level to 12850/12920 with a 12790 stop. Despite the price action being weak I still do not want to be short the market at this time especially with year – end tomorrow.
March FTSE
The FTSE has hardly moved since my last update as the market continues to hold below its all-time high at 7580. Today I will now be a small buyer on any dip lower to 7480/7520 with a 7450 stop. With Year-end tomorrow I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow which unusually has traded in an extremely narrow range over the past two trading sessions. The Dow has key support at its recent 26697 December 20 low and it will take a break and close below here for the market to turn short-term bearish. Given the importance of this support level I will now raise my buy level in the market to 24630/24700 with a 24570 stop. Despite the Dow trading overbought I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
March NASDAQ
No change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 6370/6410 with the same 6335 tight stop.
March BUND
The BUND tried to rally after opening this morning before again running into strong selling. I am still flat and today I will be a seller on any rally higher to 162.30/162.70 with a 163.05 stop. The Bund has strong support at 161.40 and a break and close below here by tomorrow evening will be bearish.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold finally broke and closed over its key 1260/1270 resistance level which is bullish. I am still flat Gold and today I will now raise my buy level to 1267/1275 with a 1259 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest long 16.15 Silver position worked well with the market trading over 16.80 this morning. Unfortunately as I wanted to be flat over the Christmas Period I covered this position too early at 16.27 and I am now flat. This is the fourth consecutive December that both Gold and Silver have put in a tradeable low. In light of the key break of the previous 16.40 support level I will now look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 16.35/16.70 with a 16.10 stop.
Recent Comments