The rise in oil prices yesterday were not enough to prevent a retail driven decline in US equity markets. The US Dollar was weaker across the board while a solid 10 year US Treasury Auction amid a cautious mood helped core Bond Yields move lower. Disappointing earnings from Macy’s and Walt Disney triggered a sell-off in the US Consumer Discretionary sector. This resulted in a 1.2% fall in the Dow as Bank shares again got hit.
Unfortunately my Blacknight hosting system for my emails has been down since 3.00 pm yesterday and as a result I have not been able to email my Platinum Members. I will email everyone when this problem which is extremely frustrating is resolved.
To mark my 1075th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading session. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 55 points yesterday and is now ahead by 472 points for May having made 2175 points in April. The previous two months saw the same gain of 2265 points in each month following a record 3365 point gain in January. Since I started this service last June it has made over 24,000 points.
Oil prices closed higher yesterday with Brent and WTI up 4.17% and 3.16% respectively as WTI made a new year to date high at $46.08 following news of a drop in the US stock piles. EIA reported a drop of 3.4m barrels in the week ending May 6 compared to market expectations for a jump of 0.47m. Commodity prices were also boosted by the retreat in the US Dollar. Gold reversed Tuesday’s decline closing 1% higher as Copper and Iron ore both gained 0.6%.
The lack of key data releases, weaker risk appetite and the lure of profit taking after six consecutive
days of gains were the most apparent given drivers for a softer Dollar over the past 24 hours. The Dollar Index closed 0.5% weaker with all G10 currencies outperforming the Dollar. The jump in oil prices boosted commodity currencies and the NZD is at the top of the leader board following yesterday’s RBNZ’s Financial Stability Review which did not announce new Macro prudential measures. The USD/JPY closed back below 109 after a solid run in recent days while the EUR/USD closed up 0.5% at 1.1430.
While core Bond Yields were lower yesterday amid a lack of risk appetite. The move lower in 10y Treasury Yields was also boosted by a solid US 10y auction. Although the 2.68 bid to cover ratio was lower relative to recent auctions the auction yield was lower than the 1.731% anticipated by traders and at 73.5% indirect bidders was the highest on record.
In other news the Bank of Canada Deputy Governor hosed down expectations of further stimulatory policies, noting that the BoC does not need to open up its policy ‘toolkit’ while the most likely outcome is a continued progress in global recovery seen already in the US and Europe.
This morning on the economic front we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am. This is followed at 12.00 pm by the latest Bank of England rate decision and Inflation Report. Finally and the only US data of consequence today we have the Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Later this afternoon the Fed roadshow continues with Members Mester, Rosengren and George all scheduled to speak.
June S&P 500
The S&P had a bad trading session yesterday with the market eventually hitting my average buy level at 2061.50. The last 18 hours have been extremely frustrating for me as my Blacknight Hosting System is down and as a result I have no access to my emails meaning I cannot email my Platinum Members with any updates. I have used Blacknight for over 4 ½ years and this is the first time this problem has happened. I am still long and I will leave my stop the same at 2054 on this position. If I am stopped out of this trade I will be a more aggressive buyer in front of 2047 with a 2039 stop. I will now look to T/P on this position on any rally higher to 2066. I will also look to go short on any rally higher to 2073/2078 with a 2083 stop which is just above last Monday’s high print. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 2067. If I am stopped out of my 2061.5 long position and subsequently the market trades lower to my second buy level I will have a T/P level at 2054.
EUR/USD
No change as I am still flat the Euro and today I will raise my buy level slightly to 1.1330/1.1370 with a 1.1295 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.1410.
June Dollar Index
No change as I am still a a buyer on any dip lower to 93.00/93.40 with the same 92.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 93.70. I will also still look to go short on any spike higher to 94.50/94.90 with a 95.25 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 94.10.
June DAX
As I was already long both the S&P and Dow overnight I waited to buy the DAX this morning which I did at 9930. As I have enough risk on board I covered this position after a brief rally this morning to 9975 at 9960. I hope everyone knows at this stage that when we have more than two equity positions open at the one time that you would have taken some evasive action which has been my style with the Platinum Service since I started this service last June and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the DAX on any dip lower to 9730/9790 with a 9680 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 9850.
June FTSE
The FTSE missed my buy level yesterday before having a nice rally. However the FTSE is now following the other major Indices lower with the market just after hitting my 6070 buy level. I am still long and I will now look to cover this position on any rally higher which I have just done at 6095 and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 6035/6065 with a 5995 stop. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 6095.
Dow Rolling Contract
As I was already long the S&P I waited to buy the Dow which I did at the bottom of my buy range at 17710 which happened just before the New York close. I am still long and I will leave my stop unchanged at 17650. I will now reduce my T/P level on this position to 17760. If I am stopped out of this position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 17510/17570 with a 17450 stop. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 17640.
June BUND
I am still flat the Bund which is trying to rally this morning on the back of the weaker stock markets and the much better than expected US 10y Treasury Auction last evening. Today I will still look to go short on any rally higher to 164.70/165.00 with a 165.30 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 164.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
No change as I am still a buyer of Gold on any dip lower to 1256/1263 with the same 1249 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1270.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver having covered my latest 17.00 long position at 17.25. Today I will continue to look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 16.70/17.10 with the same 16.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 17.40.
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