Monday’s session saw two-way price action, with the initial optimism in equities fading as the session progressed. Sentiment was initially supported by the US and Iran pausing strikes against each other over the weekend, which saw oil prices tumble. Crude hit its lows during the European morning as US equity futures traded around their peaks, although both moves began to retrace as US participants arrived. The downside in equities was concentrated in tech, with the NASDAQ 100 closing lower while the S&P 500 was broadly flat and the Russell 2000 and Dow gained. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) also outperformed, highlighting positive underlying breadth. Nvidia (NVDA) was weighed on by reports that the company is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee USD 250 billion in financing for a data centre, while ASML (ASML) fell following reports that China has begun mass production of domestically developed DUV lithography equipment. The sharp decline in oil prices supported T-notes across the curve as some of the recent inflation concerns eased, although the Treasury move was considerably more contained than that seen in crude ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Treasury supply was mixed, with the 2-year auction stopping through the when-issued yield by 0.5bps, while the subsequent 5-year auction tailed by 0.9bps. In FX, the Dollar was little changed overall, with AUD outperforming while CAD and NZD lagged. AUD and CAD were influenced by the respective moves in their commodity exposures, while CHF was pressured by Bloomberg source reports suggesting the SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2027. Gold and silver prices were firmer as the sharp decline in crude eased inflation concerns and Treasury yields moved lower. Headline Durable Goods Orders rose 0.3% M/M in June, below the 1.6% forecast, while the prior was revised up to -4.0% from -4.5%. In nominal terms, orders increased by USD 1.1 billion to USD 334.8 billion. Ex-transport orders rose 0.6%, below the 0.9% forecast, although the prior was revised sharply higher to 1.8% from 1.3%. Ex-defence orders rose 0.3%, following an upwardly revised -4.3% (initially -4.5%). The closely watched non-defence capital goods orders ex-aircraft, a proxy for business investment, rose 0.9%, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.9% (initially 1.6%). Computers and electronic products, which have risen in nine of the last ten months, led the increase, rising USD 0.9 billion, or 3.1%, to USD 31.1 billion. Meanwhile, non-defence capital goods shipments ex-aircraft rose a strong 1.9%, accelerating from 0.2% previously. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the shipments data are consistent with an annualised increase in business equipment investment of around 8% in Q2. Overall, Pantheon described the release as another strong report despite the headline miss, which was partly driven by declines in autos and defence aircraft components. Underlying orders remained solid, particularly when accounting for the upward revisions to prior data. Pantheon also highlighted that AI-related demand continues to boost orders, although some of the recent strength may also reflect temporary stockpiling as firms seek to get ahead of potential supply-chain disruptions stemming from the energy shock. Elsewhere, Oil closed Monday with a whopping 8.25% fall while Gold closed higher by 0.7%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 550 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6586 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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