U.S. Equity Markets finished yesterday higher after another volatile trading session that saw plenty of two-way price action. Lower Bond yields saw a late rally with the NASDAQ 100 leading the market higher with a gain of 1.47%. The U.S. Department of Labour reported that another 229,000 individuals filed Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending June 18. This figure was lower than the prior week’s upwardly revised 231,000 and Wall Street’s forecast of 226,000. As the U.S. has seen since mid-March, Unemployment Claims have gradually trended higher. So, while the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey for April previously showed tightness in the labour market, its July release could fall more in line with jobless-claims data. If this were to happen, it would signal a slowdown in economic momentum as the U.S. Federal Reserve explores large interest rate hikes to rein in decades-high inflation. In turn, it could reduce inflationary pressures by better controlling wage gains, which could potentially reduce some pessimism within the market. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. S&P Global’s preliminary Euro-Zone composite PMI data for June was weaker than anticipated as Manufacturing Output contracted. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% by the end of this year as it’s forced to combat inflation, according to a Reuters poll of economists. German Federal Chancellery Secretary Jorg Kukies said the government in Berlin is open to the idea of imposing an international price cap on Russian oil to boost supply. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said the country is already in an economic crisis and rising bond yields should cause countries to reconsider rising debt loads. In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the government will strengthen and adopt more policy measures to support domestic consumption and meet its 5.5% growth target for the year. Jibun Bank’s preliminary Japanese composite PMI figures for June rose compared to May as services-sector activity rebounded. Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Lee Seung-Heon said there’s a risk of prolonged inflation, requiring pre-emptive central-bank policy tightening. S&P Global’s preliminary Australian composite purchasing managers’ index (“PMI”) data for June eased compared to May as new orders and employment fell. Elsewhere, Oi fell 2% on little news while Gold fell 0.73% on Dollar strength.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 140 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3611 points for June after making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.96% higher at a price of 3795.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 194 points higher for a 0.64% gain at a price of 30,677.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.47% higher at a price of 11,697.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.27% higher at a price of 26,504
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.0510.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2258.
The Japanese Yen rose 1.1% closing at $134.79.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 20 basis points lower at 1.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 18 basis points lower at 2.32%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed seven basis points lower at 3.07%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.01% lower at $103.94 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.73% lower at $1824.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Retail Sales for May which fell 0.5% versus – 0.7% expected. At 9.00 am we have the German IFO Business Survey. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S. New Home Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Cash S&P 500
Once again, we saw plenty of two-way volatility in the S&P. The good news for my bullish view is every dip is being bought while the 5-Day EMA again held. The fact that 10-year Yields have fallen near 50 basis points off the June 3.53% spike high is good news for technology stocks. Overnight the late rally into the close has continued with the S&P now trading over the May lows at 3822 as I go to press. If and it is a big ‘’IF’’ (after what is gone on for the last three months), the S&P can close over 3810 this evening then we should see a decent rally into next Friday’s Quarter -End. Nobody believes in any upside right now as all the news articles are bearish but as I have pointed out countless times this month, the market has already crashed and almost every chart I follow is giving a buy signal. The S&P has support from 3760/3790 where I will be a small buyer with a 3739 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile I am still long from two weeks ago at 3985 and given the points made last week, I will now lower my exit level on this position to 3900, which I believed will be filled by next Friday.
EUR/USD
The awful Euro-Zone PMI Data saw the Euro sell-off to my 1.0510 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.0555 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 1.0450 while leaving my tight 1.0425 stop unchanged
March Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well with the market rallying to my initial 104.40 sell level before trading lower to my 104.10 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 104.40/105.00 with the same 105.75 stop.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 12980 buy level before rallying to my 13060 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite Bund Yields falling an incredible 20 basis points yesterday, the DAX is struggling to rally, with the market now only 500 points above the March extreme low print. The DAX is severely oversold. We have support from 12770/12870 where I will be a buyer with a 12695 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE just missed yesterday’s initial 6990 buy level by a few points before having a small rally in the New York close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 6950/7010 with a higher 6885 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just like the S&P above, every dip in the Dow is getting bought. However, for bulls to regain control we need to see the Dow break and close over 31,000 before looking for higher price targets. I am still flat the Dow as the market again missed my buy range buy a few points before rallying to sit above 30800 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 30250/30550 with a now higher 29995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The McClellan Oscillator improved further, closing last night closing at +1, for a fifth consecutive rise, while the Fear and Greed Index improved slightly, showing a reading of ‘’Extreme Fear’’ with a 23 print.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly, the NDX just missed my buy range by a few points before again reversing yesterday’s morning’s sell-off, to lead the American Indexes higher with a gain of 1.5%. Lower Bond Yields will certainly help Tech stocks and for this reason alone I would not be short the NASDAQ. I will now raise my buy level to 11480/11630 with a higher 11345 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 11855. Meanwhile I will leave my 14327 long position unchanged with a now lower 12850 exit level
September BUND
The Bund continued to build on Tuesday’s gains as yields fell by a whopping 20 basis points yesterday, following the 13 points fall on Wednesday. This move higher has led to a massive 600 point rally in the Bund. I cannot remember the last time the Bund has had such a rally in just 48 hours. The Bund has short-term support from 146.60/147.20 where I will be a small buyer with a 145.95 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold fell 0.75% yesterday and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 1798/1810 with a 1789 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
After Silver hit my 21.10 buy level we had a small rally, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 21.40 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, Silver is opening weaker at 20.90. We have support from 19.80/20.50 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 18.95 wider stop.
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