Opinion – Monday 13 August 2018

The Turkish Lira’s travails dominated the airwaves and financial market price action elsewhere on Friday. TRY ended the New York day 16% lower, having been down 19% at worse, and has just restarted the week above 7.00 to the USD, some 12% lower. President Trump...

Opinion – Friday 3 August 2018

Yesterday’s official confirmation that President Trump  had instructed the USTR to consider a higher 25% tariff (from 10%) on the proposed $200bn of Chinese goods triggered an angry response from China, a sell-off in Asian equities and a weaker CNY. European equities...

Opinion – Thursday 2 August 2018

As I go to press I am still waiting for President Trump to announce at a press conference details on the further $16bn of tariffs and more importantly increase the threatened tariff from 10% to 25% on the additional $200bn in tariffs promised on retaliation. Chinese...

Opinion – Wednesday 1 August 2018

There has been quite a lot of event and data risk over the past 24 hours both in the Asian session and throughout yesterday. When all is said and done, the AUD/USD sits higher on net this morning, likely aided as much as anything by some press reporting that US-China...

Opinion – Tuesday 31 July 2018

The Interest Rate markets have come under pressure over the past 24 hours with speculation over the Bank of Japan policy decision today pushing core global yields higher. The US Dollar is weaker across the board, the AUD has been a bystander and SEK the outperformer....

Opinion – Monday 30 July 2018

US Q2 GDP print was the big data event on Friday and the numbers came in just below expectations at 4.1% (4.2% exp.) with Q1 figures revised upwards. Consumers and exports led the gains during the Quarter, but with soybeans leading the rise in exports (+9.3%) and tax...

Opinion – Friday 27 July 2018

It has been an eventful past 24 hours with a few macro themes at play. The USD is stronger across the board largely aided by a softer Euro courtesy of a dovish ECB and softer CNH amid heightened US-China trade tensions. European equities had a good day following the...

Opinion – Thursday 26 July 2018

US equities have closed higher, getting a late push into the close after a post-meeting press conference with President Trump and the EU’s Juncker, the bonhomie between the two also evident earlier as the talks began with flattering comments from each. The USD has...

Opinion – Wednesday 25 July 2018

Global equities recorded gains yesterday boosted by a positive lead from Asia with the Shanghai Composite leading the way following the announcement of additional stimulatory measures from China late on Monday. US earnings results also boosted US equities, although...

Opinion – Tuesday 24 July 2018

Bond markets have grabbed the primary attention of markets, centred on Japan for once, while in currency markets, the USD has made up some net ground, if assisted by weakness in the AUD and NZD stemming from weakness in the Chinese yuan. Bond markets in recent times...

Opinion – Monday 23 July 2018

President Trump turned the heat on again on Friday, threatening to increase trade protectionist measures against China, calling out currency manipulators and also had another go at the Fed for raising rates while others continue to ease. Kudlow, Trump’s economic...

Opinion – Friday 20 July 2018

US President Trump’s interview with CNBC, which aired early afternoon New York time enlivened markets in which he opined to not being happy about recent Fed rate rises, has brought the US dollar to heal after having just posted a new one year high above 95.50 in DXY...

Opinion – Thursday 19 July 2018

Equities ex tech shares and commodities have had a decent past 24 hours with Morgan Stanley leading the gains in financials. Soft US Housing data and a less hawkish Fed Chair Powell combined to drive a small steepening of the UST curve. The USD struggled to retain...

Opinion – Wednesday 18 July 2018

At his semi-annual testimony before the Senate, Fed Chair Powell reiterated the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the US economy, noting risks to the outlook remain roughly balanced and that for now the best way forward is to keep lifting rates gradually. On trade, a...