Opinion – Friday 31 August 2018

News in the last two hours of the New York trading session that President Trump wants to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports as soon as the public comment period concludes next week, has pulled the rug from an earlier recovery...

Opinion – Thursday 30 August 2018

The big news yesterday was the announcement by the EU’s Barnier who suggested an offer to the UK of a deal that has never been seen before.Sterling jumped nearly two big figures on the Barnier headline, from around 1.285 to over 1.3040 this morning, EUR/GBP down from...

Opinion – Wednesday 29 August 2018

While European equities had a mixed session, US counterparts managed to close with minuscule gains. The US Dollar is flat in Index terms and US Treasury yields are higher on the back of mostly solid US data releases. After Monday’s comments by President Trump, that...

Opinion – Tuesday 28 August 2018

Risk sentiment was given a further leg up yesterday with the news that the US and Mexico had agreed on a trade deal to replace NAFTA. Sticking points over the automotive sector have been resolved while duty free access for the agriculture sector. The President sealed...

Opinion – Monday 27 August 2018

Two things moved the dials on global markets after I posted last Friday morning: Fed chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, and a couple of hours before that, confirmation from the PBoC that it would resume using the ‘’counter-cyclical’’ factor when calculating the...

Opinion – Friday 24 August 2018

Looking across markets, not much to say about international equities or bonds over the past 24 hours with the S&P closing lower by 0.2. Treasury yields are little changed, albeit the US Treasury curve is another 2bps or so flatter led by a pick-up in yields at...

Opinion – Thursday 23 August 2018

Despite the US news wire coverage over the past 24 hours of the former Trump campaign manager Manafort’s conviction on eight counts of tax and bank fraud charges and former Trump Lawyer Cohen pleading guilty to illegal campaign finance charges and implicating Trump,...

Opinion – Wednesday 22 August 2018

After Monday’s Bloomberg headlines of Trump complaining that Fed Chairman Powell has not been ‘’cheap money Fed chair’’, late in the NY session Reuters published an interview with Trump which served to maintain negative US Dollar momentum. The acceleration in the USD...

Opinion – Tuesday 21 August 2018

DXY, the US Dollar Index, recorded its fourth consecutive daily decline against a backdrop of improved risk appetite, lower UST yields and news that President Trump had expressed disappointment with recent Fed hikes. According to a Bloomberg story, speaking at a...

Opinion – Monday 20 August 2018

On the heels of Thursday’s FX about-turn on the news that trade talks between the US and China would resume in Washington later this month (reportedly now from this Wednesday), the Wall Street Journal on Friday afternoon NY time reported that the U.S. and China were...

Opinion – Friday 17 August 2018

News of US-China trade talks revival, albeit at low levels, boosted risk sentiment during the London session yesterday while the positive mood was further enhanced by solid US earnings reports. The US has led the gains in equities and the improvement in risk sentiment...

Opinion – Thursday 16 August 2018

Yesterday the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index (MXEF) entered bear market territory, down over 20% from its early January highs. The latest moves have been led by a 6.5% drop in the share price of Tencent after the Chinese e-commerce behemoth reported its first...

Opinion – Wednesday 15 August 2018

The stabilisation in the Turkish lira has helped risk sentiment over the past 24 hours with the S&P500 recording its first positive day in five, but European equities have remained under pressure with the Bloomberg EU Banks Index closing at a new 18 month low....

Opinion – Tuesday 14 August 2018

Turkey still front of mind, but so far contagion has been limited,  Equities have been softer, as have base metals (with oil marginally and gold) and there has been some widening of credit spreads, but it’s been a relatively orderly market and with the Turkish lira...