U.S. Indices advanced on Tuesday with broad-based gains as all indices closed higher, with the Russell and Equal Weight S&P outperforming. Sectors were also predominantly firmer with Health Care, Materials and Industrials leading the gains, while Energy and Communication Services closed lower. NVIDIA (NVDA) closed in the red despite some optimistic commentary from the CEO and CFO, but with weakness still attributed to uncertainty around H200 China orders being approved. Energy stocks tracked crude prices lower, giving up some of Monday’s gains in what has been a volatile start to the year for crude. Downside today appeared to stem from optimism surrounding Russia/Ukraine peace following a positive meeting on security guarantees between US, EU and Ukraine, but we are still awaiting Russia’s response. T-Notes largely meandered but settled slightly lower ahead of key jobs data this week and potential opinions from the US Supreme Court on Tariffs, while a record-sized Fed Funds block trade (200k in Jan Fed Funds!) and ongoing chunky corporate issuance also weighed. In FX, the Australian Dollar outperformed on risk appetite and ahead of CPI, while Dollar also saw gains to the detriment of G10 peers. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc lagged. Precious metals advanced further with gold trading either side of USD 4,500/oz, whilst silver rose above USD 82/oz at its peak. Fed Member Miran the uber-dove expects data to support more rate cuts and said the Fed should cut more than 100bps this year. Speaking on the inflation side of the mandate, it said it is over Fed’s target due to statistical quirks, and that underlying inflation is near the Fed’s target. Re Fed Chair, the Governor said he has not spoken to President Trump about being it, and all names on the short list are credible. Miran remarked that Fed policy is restrictive and holding the economy back, but noted fiscal policy will support growth this year, and he is optimistic about economic growth. Fed Member Barkin the 2027 voter said the current policy rate is within a range of neutral, and he expects tax changes, deregulation, and impact of rate cuts to add stimulus to the economy in 2026 with uncertainty also diminishing and building confidence among consumers and businesses. He said inflation has come down but remains above target. Unemployment remains low but does not want the labour market to deteriorate much further. He said upcoming rate decisions will be finely tuned given risks to both sides of the mandate. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.5% while ended Tuesday with a 0.6% gain.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 265 points yesterday and is now ahead by 465 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.62% higher at a price of 6944.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 485 points higher for a 0.99% gain at a price of 49,462.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.94% higher at a price of 25,639.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.58% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.10% lower at a price of 51,941.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.30% higher.
The Euro closed 0.24% lower at $1.1692.
The British Pound closed 0.29% lower at $1.3498.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.26% closing at $156.73
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 4.49%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.85%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.18%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.52% lower at $56.26 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $4468.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales at 7.00 am. This is followed by German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Construction PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and a UK 10-Year Gilt Auction at 10.30 am. This is followed by the U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Next, we have ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS – Job Openings and Durable Goods Orders at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 8.10 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed 0.60% higher on Tuesday while barely eking out a new all-time high. It was somewhat striking to see the market advance on a day when Apple fell by nearly 2%, while Nvidia declined by about half a percent. Most of the strength appeared to come from the semiconductor memory stocks, which feel distinctly late-cycle. When memory chip names are leading the market higher, it naturally raises questions about how much further this move can extend, at least in my view. Really, how many more times can Micron continue to rise by 10%? All of this leaves the broader outlook increasingly uncertain. With so many indicators stretched and volatility measures already at very low levels, the market appears to be running on fumes, making the next meaningful move far from obvious. The 1-month implied correlation index fell to 8.3, placing it at the very low end of its historical trading range. Historically, experience has shown that when implied correlations reach these levels, a market turn is often imminent but as you know I have been saying this for the past few weeks. Meanwhile, BTIC S&P 500 Total Return futures (EFFR), or equity financing costs, have melted down, with the January 2026 contracts now trading below 60. Again, experience has taught us that the cash market tends not to perform well when declines of this magnitude occur. The index has been range-bound, gaining less than 1% from its October 29 closing high, and the setup still looks very similar to what we saw at the start of 2022 and 2025. The 1966 track is not dead yet, either. If correlations were higher, financing costs were stable, and volatility was higher, one could argue that another surge is imminent—and that may still prove to be the case. However, it would also require volatility metrics to be compressed even further, and I cannot handicap those odds. Yesterday’s move to new all-time highs saw the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a now 6938 average short position. I will leave my 6963 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 6924. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro never came close to Tuesday’s range. Today, I will lower my sell level to 1.1750/1.1830 with a lower 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1690. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 98.60 exit level on my three-week 98.80 average long position and I am now flat. The Dollar has support below from 97.40/98.20 where I will be a small buyer with a lower 96.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.70.
Russell 2000
Late in Monday’s session the Russell hit my sell range for a now 2550 short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 2510. I will continue to look to add to this trade on any further move higher to 2610 while leaving my 2655 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Wrong! I was stopped out of my 9985 average short position at 10085 and I am still flat. The FTSE continues to trade outside the top of its Daily and Monthly Bollinger Bands. Given this backdrop I cannot see a good risk/reward in being long. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 10150/10250 with a higher 10355 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10060.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! Frustrating as the Dow just missed my 48810 T/P level before turning around and trade to new all-time highs. This move higher saw my 49305 stop triggered on my latest 48900 average short position and I am now flat. Nothing matters as the markets continue to ignore all the noise with Market Cap to GDP back above 230% which in my opinion is just madness. There is no risk/reward in being long at these levels. The Dow has further resistance from 49800/50100 where I will again be a seller with a 50305 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 49550.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Just before the close the NDX traded higher to my 25650-sell level. I am still short and I will add to this position at 25850 with a now higher 26005 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now move my T/P level higher to 25510. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund never came close to Tuesday’s buy range and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 126.40/127.20 with a higher 125.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 127.70. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat as I still have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has almost recovered all of last week’s losses. This move higher saw the market trade the whole of my sell range for an 81.30 average short position. To reduce some of my equity losses I have now exited this position here at 78.70 and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 81.80/83.80 with a higher 85.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 80.20.
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