U.S. Equity Markets closed lower yesterday as higher Bond Yields and weak financials continue to weigh on the market. However, despite the weakness the VIX closed lower by 4%. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said that further rate hikes would be solely directed at inflation and not at relieving uncertainty in the financial sector, while Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr told senators in Congressional Testimony that regulators warned Silicon Valley Bank before its collapse, and that it was a clear case of mismanagement. Disney (DIS) eliminated its entire metaverse division as a part of larger cost-cutting layoffs, a sign that economic stress is still hitting the tech sector hard. The Case Shiller Home Price Index for January fell for a seventh straight month, up only 3.8% from a year ago. Within the S&P 500 Index, six of 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. ECB supervisor Andrea Enria said that recent banking volatility is concerning and that moves into credit default swaps could become contagious among investors. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey implied rate hikes are done when he said the benchmark interest rate is likely to remain below the pre-financial-crisis highs. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said it is still too soon to say how restrictive monetary policy needs to be. French Business Climate Index for March stayed above its long-term average and showed the country’s economy remains resilient despite recent social protests over pension reform. In Asia, outgoing Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said its sustainable 2% inflation target has not yet been met and ongoing easy-money policies are appropriate. South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance is allegedly trying to spur domestic economic growth by planning measures to boost tourism and travel. The People’s Bank of China added roughly $14 billion worth of funds to the financial system via reverse repurchase operations to ensure ample banking liquidity. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.73% while Gold closed 1% higher after a volatile two-way trading session.
To mark my 2750th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 380 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6393 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower at a price of 3971
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points lower for a 0.12% loss at a price of 32,394.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.49% lower at a price of 12,610.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.04% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.19%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.15% higher at a price of 27,518.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0845.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2342.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% closing at $13079.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 3.45%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 3.56%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.73% higher at $73.34 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.05% higher at $1973.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am. This is followed at 9.30 am by U.K. Money Supply and the FPC Minutes at 10.30 am. At 12.00 pm we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications and Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, at 6.00 pm we have a 7-Year Treasury Auction.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P traded in a narrow range as he drip feed sell-off from Monday continued. However, Bears could get nothing moving on the downside as the key Moving Averages again held. This move lower saw the S&P hit my 3958 buy level with a 3952 low print. A nice rally in the last 20 minutes saw the market hit my 3971 T/P level and I am now flat. Nonetheless it was still a down day for the market which now only has three trading days left for both the month and Quarter. Any respite in Financials will see the S&P surge in my opinion. Of note was the VIX closing below 20 (19.97) which either signals complacency or may lead to sustained buy programmes if the ”20” break can be maintained. As long as the S&P can hold its 200 Day Moving Average at 3931 I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, my buy level will be form 3940/3958 with a lower 3927 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be a small seller from 4021/4037 with a higher 4053 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. My own view is the Euro will test the 1.1000 major resistance area over the coming days. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0740/1.0800 with a higher 1.0685 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar continues to build value below 103.00. I will again lower my sell level to 102.30/103.80 with a lower 104.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the market higher especially after the rise in Bond Yields over the past 48 hours. Therefore, I will leave 14820/14920 buy level unchanged with the same 14745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range again yesterday despite Gilt Yields rising a further 10-basis points. Just like the DAX above I do not want to chase the FTSE higher, leaving my 7300/7380 buy level unchanged with the same 7215 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7430.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my initial 32300 buy level. A late rally saw the Dow rally 150 points, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 32380 T/P level and I am now flat. Although the Bank Index is struggling to get anything going on the upside it is worth noting that the Dow continues to hover around its 200 Day Moving Average. The longest period in consecutive $NYMO negative readings in many years has come to an end. We still have not seen a positive reading and it is this chart alone that keeps me from being a seller. The Daily $NYSI has finally seen a turn upward, keeping me on the buyside. The Dow has support from 31950/32200 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 31795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Higher Bond Yields continues to weigh on the NASDAQ. Yesterday’s sell-off saw my 12570 buy level filled. Overnight the NDX has rallied to my 12650 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 12430/12580 with the same 12295 ”Closing Stop”. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 12670.
June BUND
The Bund sold off to my second buy level at 135.80 for now 136.20 average long position. I will leave my 135.15 ‘’Closing Price’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 136.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My latest 1951 long Gold position worked well as the market rose to my 1960 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning Gold is trading higher at 1974. Gold has support from 1935/1950 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1923 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 2015/2030 where I will again be a small seller with a 2041 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to creep higher. I am still long Silver from last month at a price of 23.10. I will leave my 21.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 23.55 as I have this position too long. If any of the above changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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