U.S. Indices closed firmer on Tuesday, and while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed, it managed to pare all weakness initially seen, driven by NVIDIA, amid The Information reports that Meta is considering using Google’s TPUs in its data centres in 2027. NVIDIA (-2.6%) still ended the day with losses, but the wider index managed to recover. Sectors overall were predominantly in the green, with Health and Consumer Discretionary sitting atop of the pile, with Utilities and Energy the only ones in the red. The latter was hit by weakness in the crude complex amid positive Ukraine/Russia peace deal developments, with President Trump most recently posting on Truth that there are only a few remaining points of disagreement, and as such is sending Witkoff to meet with Putin in Moscow, and Driscoll to meet with the Ukrainians. There was a deluge of US data (more below), but little really moved markets as PPI and retail sales were dated (Sept), although Consumer Confidence (Nov) was dismal. On the Fed footing, Miran was his usual dovish self, but the US yield curve steepened amid BBG reports that Hassett is seen as the frontrunner in Trump’s Fed Chair search. The Dollar was also sold, with money markets also moving more dovishly for December 2026; note, Powell’s term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026. Back to FX, as mentioned, the Dollar was sold with the Japanese Yen, Sterling and the Euro the gainers with focus on the UK budget on Wednesday. Antipodeans saw marginal gains as attention turned to the RBNZ overnight, whereby the central bank is widely expected to reduce rates by 25bps. Headline PPI in September rose 0.3%, in line with estimates and accelerating from August’s -0.1% print, while the Y/Y rate increased to 2.7%, matching forecasts and up from 2.6%. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1%, below the 0.2% forecast but above the previous -0.1%. The Y/Y rate was 2.6%, softer than both the 2.7% forecast and the 2.8% prior. The super-core measure, excluding food, energy and trade, rose 0.1% M/M from 0.3%, with the Y/Y rate at 2.9% from 2.8%. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics said, “September’s PPI data show that the inflation impulse from the tariffs is modest and underlying services inflation is still slowing”. Components feeding into the PCE report were mixed: air fares rose 4.0% (prev. 0.7%), portfolio management fell 1.2% (prev. 1.6%), home health and hospice care jumped 1.2% (prev. 0.1%), outpatient hospital care fell 0.4% (prev. +0.2%), and nursing home care rose 0.7% (prev. -0.1%). Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that September’s PPI and CPI data are consistent with a 0.22% increase in the core PCE deflator, maintaining the inflation rate at 2.9%. It added that the average core PCE inflation rate in Q4 2025 is likely to undershoot the median FOMC participants’ September forecast of 3.1% by one to two tenths, giving policymakers confidence to ease policy next month to support the labour market. The delayed September Retail Sales Report came in beneath expectations, with the headline rising 0.2%, albeit not as much as the expected 0.4% and the prior 0.6%; Retail Control (ex-building material, motor vehicle & parts, gasoline station & food svs, SA), a better gauge of core retail spending, unexpectedly declined 0.1% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.7%, rev. 0.6%). Note, in the Bank of America Consumer Checkpoint monthly data, they had anticipated that SA spending growth per household rose 0.2% M/M. Ex-Autos rose 0.3% in line with expectations (prev. 0.7%, rev. 0.6%), while ex-gas/autos rose 0.1% (prev. 0.7%, rev. 0.6%). Growth in the headline was supported by growth in miscellaneous store retailers (2.9%) and gasoline stations (2%), meanwhile the declines were seen in sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores (-2.5%), clothing (-0.7%) and nonstore retailers (-0.7%). Oxford Economics writes that the slowdown in retail sales growth was largely due to an outright decline in non-store sales, which is likely a seasonal adjustment issue linked to the timing of sales by major online retailers. Given the report, the firm estimates personal spending is on track for a 0.44% gain in September. Consumer confidence for November was disappointing, as it fell to 88.7 from 94.6, much beneath the expected 93.4, tumbling to its lowest level since April – all five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped 4.3 points to 126.9, while the Expectations Index tumbled to 63.2 from 71.8. Chief Economist of the Conference Board Dana Peterson said the Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labour market conditions, while all three components of Expectations deteriorated in Nov. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions worsened, as 20.1% said “good” (prev. 20.7% M/M) and 16.9% said “bad” (prev. 14.5%), while views of the labour market also weakened; 27.6% said jobs were “plentiful” (prev. 28.6%), however 17.9% said jobs were “hard to get” (prev. 18.3%). Looking ahead, and as alluded to, consumers were more pessimistic about future business conditions, more worried about the labour market, and income prospects were less positive. The weekly ADP preliminary estimate for the four weeks to Nov. 8, 2025, showed US private employers cut an average 13,500 jobs per week, compared with a four-week average decline of 2,500 in the period ending Nov. 1. ADP said “consumer strength remains in question as we enter the holiday hiring season, which might be playing into delayed or curtailed job creation”. The report also referenced the September NFP data, noting that self-employed workers in the gig economy lost 114,000 jobs that month. However, a new ADP report indicates structural demographic shifts are expected to reverse this short-term decline. Pending Home Sales for October rose 1.9% M/M, above the expected +0.5%, and the prior +0.1%; inventory/sales ratio was unchanged at 1.37 months’ worth. NE, S, and MW all saw gains M/M, with the latter surging 5.3%, while the W decreased 1.5%. As NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun writes, “Mid-West shined above other regions due to better affordability, while contract signings retreated in the more expensive West. Days on the market typically lengthen from Nov. through Feb., providing better negotiating power to buyers during the holiday season.” Yun adds, “Job gains in Sept., following the data blackout, are reassuring and suggest the economy is not slipping into a recession, which may boost confidence in future homebuying.” Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.6% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 170 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4382 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.91% higher at a price of 6765.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 664 points higher for a 1.43% gain at a price of 47,112.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.58% higher at a price of 25,018.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.91% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.07% higher at a price of 48,659.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.43% lower.
The Euro closed 0.52% higher at $1.1582.
The British Pound closed 0.81% higher at $1.3211.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.69% closing at $155.81
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.50%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.67%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.00%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.78% lower at $57.79 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.03% lower at $4134.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 12.00 pm we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, followed by GDP, Building Permits, Weekly Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 4.30 pm. Finally. We have a Seven-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P was surprisingly higher on Tuesday, even though it was a Treasury settlement day and we saw overnight funding rates rise, notable usage of the Standing Repo Facility increased, and a drop in Bitcoin. Given those conditions, it would have made sense for the S&P 500 to finish lower overall. In fact, the index fell sharply at the open—by nearly 0.8% at one point—before reversing and grinding higher for the rest of the session as implied volatility was sold, potentially due to the shortened trading week. It is not unusual to see implied volatility sold ahead of holiday trading sessions, since time decay remains the same while the number of trading days decreases, making it an attractive setup for shorting volatility. That appears to be what happened on November 25th, despite what otherwise seemed like favorable conditions for the market to trade lower. Adding insult to injury, NVIDIA was down more than 2% on the day and had traded as low as 6% at one point in the morning. But it did not matter, because the other 493 stocks were pushed higher, and Meta helped lift the index as well. So, at least for the moment, it seemed there was a mechanical force in the market that was able to override tight liquidity conditions, higher overnight funding rates, and even an underperforming NASDAQ 100 throughout the session. In essence, yesterday was nothing more than a volatility dispersion day. The constituent volatility index fell less than the VIX, while the dispersion index moved higher. This is exactly the type of behavior we typically see on volatility-dispersion days, likely driven by the holiday and the shortened trading week. Finally, SoftBank fell another 10% yesterday and has now retraced all the gains it has made since the beginning of September, suggesting that the gamma squeeze that previously supported the stock is now over. If the shares break 14,000 yen, the next support level lies at 12,000. After the S&P hit my 6755-sell level we had a small sell-off to my revised 6744 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The S&P is short-term overbought have risen over 260 Handles since the lows of Friday. We have resistance from 6788/6808 where I will again be a seller with a 6825 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I have no interest in buying the S&P at these levels waiting for a dip before pulling the trigger. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6769.
EUR/USD
The Euro never came close to Tuesday’s buy range before rallying 50 points and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1.1440/1.1510 with a higher 1.1375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1570.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my Dollar buy level unchanged at 98.60/99.40 with the same 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 99.90.
Russell 2000
The Russell now rallied a huge 7% since last Friday’s low. I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. The market is now short-term overbought. Even though we are in one of the seasonally strongest weeks of the year I will use any further rally to go short. Today, my sell level will be from 2495/2565 with a tight 2605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2450. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
The FTSE rallied to my 9575 T/P level on Monday’s 9515 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 9480/9550 with a higher 9415 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9610. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Tuesday’s buy range, and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 46350/4650 with a higher 46095 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46930.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 25100/25300 with the same 25455 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24930. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
No Change: The Bund has literally not moved more than 60 points in a daily session over the past two months. I am still long the Bund at an average rate of 129.50 with the same 129.80 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold traded in a narrow range on Tuesday. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher as I continue to be a buyer from 4010/4030 with the same 3988 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4064.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will not chase the price of Silver higher believing there is more profit-taking to come. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 47.50/48.50 with the same 45.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49.70.
Recent Comments