U.S. Equity Markets closed higher on Tuesday, ked by the 1.9% impressive gain in the Russell 2000 with the vast majority of sectors in the green, with only Energy in the red as President Trump’s executive orders and initial Dollar firmness weighed on the crude complex. The Dollar was ultimately flat on Tuesday, despite seeing an initial resurgence in wake of heavy selling pressure on Monday which was triggered by news that President Trump refrained from imposing tariffs on day one of his Presidency. Most of G10 FX was flat more-or-less flat against the Dollar, although both the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso lagged on Trump saying overnight that he is thinking of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and thinks that they will do it on February 1st. Elsewhere, more reports out of Japanese press noted the Bank of Japan is moving towards a rate hike at this week’s meeting. Treasuries were firmer with the curve flattening, albeit settling off initial peaks after Trump’s inauguration and the aforementioned tariff reports. In terms of stock specifics, MMM and SCHW reported strong earnings, while Oracle was buoyed in wake of CBS reporting that Trump is set to announce billions of dollars in private sector investment to build AI infrastructure in the United States, and OpenAI, Softbank (SFTBY) and Oracle (ORCL) are planning a JV. Surprisingly, headline newsflow was actually fairly light on Tuesday amid a lack of tier 1 US events and Fed on blackout, but participants await any remarks from Trump with him appearing on Fox News’s Hannity on Wednesday night and Davos on Thursday. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.56% lower, while a weaker Dollar saw Gold end Tuesday with a gain of 1.2%.
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 434 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1949 points for January after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.88% higher at a price of 6049.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points higher for a 1.24% gain at a price of 44,025.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.58% higher at a price of 21,566.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.40% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.32% higher at a price of 39,027.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0422.
The British Pound closed 0.05% higher at 1.2329.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.0.02% closing at $155.54.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.51%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.60%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.58%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.56% lower at $75.89 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% higher at $2744 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing Requirement at 7.00 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm, followed by Leading Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President at 3.15 pm and Bundesbank President Nagel at 4.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as the market rallied to my 6035 initial sell level before selling off to my 6022 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go shot again at 6048. I am still short, and I will add to this position on any further move higher to 6068 with a higher 6083 ‘’Closing Stop’’. With Trump now back in the White House we can expect all sorts of market moving news events to come out at any stage without notice. Incredibly both Trump and his wife Melania launched their own crypto meme coins at the weekend. This is an unprecedented era. Whatever our political views are I do have to call this one out: What a blatant and obvious gift grab void of any ethical or legal constraint. $Trump saw over $70 billion in Market Cap created out of thin air over the weekend with zero economic foundation whatsoever and over 80% of supply in personal control of the Trump family. This was followed by the Melania coin a few hours later ($Melania) which has its own Market Cap above $1 billion. With outgoing President Biden allowed to pardon his whole family against any crimes committed, what chance have we got to stop anyone been constrained by ethical and moral compass. No wonder Billionaires are now on the Trump bandwagon meaning they will do everything in their power to ever see a stock market crash again. Yet as I mentioned yesterday, Trump is taking office at the highest valuations ever and debt levels which are also at their highest levels in history. Yes, 2025 will see massive opportunity given the two-way volatility that I expect to see. I will have a T/P level on my latest short S&P position at 6032. The McClellan Oscillator closed at a very overbought +227 last night. History tells us that any print above 250 is nearly always followed by a large retracement. The S&P is trading at 6053 as I go to press. We now have over 115 Handle Gap from last Thursday’s 5937 Chicago close which is insane. I will be a buyer of the S&P on any initial close of the 5937’’ gap’’ where my buy level will be from 5945/5960 with a 5929 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5976.
EUR/USD
My Euro call worked well as the market sold off to my initial 1.0350 buy level before rallying to my revised 1.0404 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how oversold the Euro is trading, I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, my buy level will be from 1.0280/1.0360 with the same 1.0215 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0420. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well as the Dollar rallied to my 108.70 sell level before trading lower to my 108.10 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Dollar is trading at 108.00 as I go to press. The Dollar has resistance from 108.40/109.10 where I will again be a seller with a higher 109.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’
Russell 2000
Frustratingly the Russell just missed my level on the spike lower early yesterday morning before leading Tuesday’s move higher. This morning the Russell is trading at a price of 2316. We have strong support below from 2180/2250. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 2095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2295.
Cash FTSE
Shortly before the New York close the FTSE spiked to my 8570-sell level. The FTSE is trading well above its Daily Bollinger Band indicating that the market is now at risk of a larger correction before subsequently moving higher. I will add to this trade on any further move higher to 8640 while leaving my 8705 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will move my T/P level higher to 8525. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully the Dow had a nice spike lower overnight to a price of 43290 before rallying over 700 points off this low into the close. This initial move lower saw my 43510 T/P level triggered and I am still flat as I had no further sell levels for Tuesday’s session. The Dow has now recaptured its 50 Day Moving Average at 43575. This level will offer any support on any test. There is every chance the Dow can now trade back to the 45,000-pivot level before a more sustained sell-off ensues. Therefore, I will be a small buyer of the Dow from 43540/43790 with a tight 43395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX underperformed Tuesday’s session and I am still flat as the market never came close to my sell range. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 21690/21840 with the same 21955 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given the number of ‘’Open Gaps’’ below, I have no interest in being a buyer of the NDX at this time.
March BUND
I am still flat as the Bund traded in a narrow range again yesterday. The Bund is still oversold despite Wednesday’s rally. We have short-term support below from 130.40/131.20. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 129.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 131.90
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to build value above 2650, and I am still flat. Gold has support from 2655/2670. I will leave now raise my buy level to this area with a higher he same 2639 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2684
Silver Rolling Contract
It took a while but finally Silver rallied to my revised 30.80 T/P level on my 30.40 average long position, and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 29.60/30.20 while leaving my 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 30.90.
Recent Comments