Opinion – Wednesday 2 August 2017

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in a Bloomberg TV interview, speaking of a bubble in the bond market. “By any measure, real long term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable. When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble not in stock prices but in bond price”. He went on to talk of how the economy was about to enter a period of rising inflation, essentially then bursting the bubble. Rising inflation would be a challenge for bond investors and for yield-sensitive stocks, but a challenge the Fed would relish, a more familiar historical challenge than current circumstances. Despite Greenspan’s comments the ‘’Bond bubble” get bigger, US 10s down 4.3bps to 2.25% on the back of still subdued US inflation revealed by the latest PCE deflators, a pull-back in oil prices, and for once a steadier US Dollar. The Bloomberg spot BBDXY index has risen 0.22%.

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