Despite a much higher than expected Retail Sales number, U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier losses to close flat on Tuesday following another volatile session. Retail Sales rose 0.7% sending Bond Yields higher with 10-Year Treasuries closing at 4.84%. Rite Aid (RAD) has filed for bankruptcy in a bid to close unprofitable stores, address lawsuits regarding its role in the opioid crisis, and restructure $4 billion of debt. The pharmacy chain has battled allegations that it knowingly filled hundreds of thousands of unlawful prescriptions for controlled substances. Rite Aid has secured $3.45 billion in financing to fund itself through bankruptcy. The company will also sell Elixir, its pharmacy benefit management business, for $575 million. It now plans to cut costs and close a portion of its 2,100 locations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that, despite persistently high interest rates, the U.S. has the means to provide aid to Israel after war broke out with Hamas. She also believes the U.S. can continue aiding Ukraine in its dispute with Russia. Yellen acknowledged that as the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates, it is still too early to tell if it could push the global economy into a recession. She noted that interest on U.S. debt, which is at 98% of economic output, “remains manageable” and requires attention and that the U.S. economy is still “in a good place.” According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, factory activity in the state contracted for October. The reading indicates a slowdown in demand and suggests that inflation is cooling. The New York Fed’s general business conditions index fell 6.5 points to a reading of negative 4.6. Despite the contraction, New York factories remain slightly optimistic, with 6-month forward-looking shipments and new orders still in expansionary territory. While challenges are present in the short term, the data suggest manufacturers are anticipating a better outlook in the coming months. Oil futures fell after the U.S. and Venezuela struck a deal to ease sanctions on the South American country’s oil industry. The deal requires Venezuela to host a competitive, monitored presidential election next year. The agreement could lead to increased oil supply, but Brent crude futures and West Texas Intermediate futures fell to $1.08 and $1.07, respectively. The decrease in oil prices could prove to be short-lived as geopolitical risk associated with the Israel-Hamas conflict could drive crude prices higher. European Markets closed mixed. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) is pushing to stifle businesses that refuse to accept cash. The tougher stance led the ECB to suggest mandating that shops and service providers cannot exclude cash as a form of payment. The efforts seek to uphold the stability of physical currency as a reliable means of payment. According to the central bank, the spread of businesses refusing cash would undermine the legal-tender status of banknotes and coins. The ECB’s efforts to solidify physical currency come as the central bank attempts to develop a Digital Euro. In Asia, The U.S. plans to tighten restrictions on China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. The restriction will refine and close loopholes to prevent China from obtaining innovative technologies that could give it a military advantage. Additionally, the rules will impose a trade-restriction list and add additional checks on Chinese firms seeking to skirt restrictions. The revision will allow companies to continue their exports to China but will exclude firms’ most powerful chips. The measures highlight the U.S. government’s ongoing concerns about the national-security implications of China’s semiconductor advancements. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.42% while Gold ended Tuesday with a small 0.2% gain.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 345 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2701 points for October after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 4373.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 13 points higher for a 0.04% gain at a price of 33,997.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.33% lower at a price of 15,122.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.1% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.20% higher at a price of 32,040.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.35% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0575.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 121.80.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $149.80.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 2.88%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 4.51%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 13 basis points higher at 4.84%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.42% higher at $87.02 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1924.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index at 7.00 am. Next, we have speeches from ECB Members Elderson and President Lagarde at 8.30 am and 9.55 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output at 10.00 am. At 12.00 pm we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm ahead of Building Permits and Housing Starts at 1.30 pm. This is followed by speeches from Fed Members Waller, Williams and Bowman at 5.00 pm, 5.30 pm and 6.00 pm respectively. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the Beige Book.
Cash S&P 500
You can only but be impressed by the price action in the S&P as yet again a strong sell-off was reversed into the close. The S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4347 average long position before rallying to my revised 4365 T/P level and I am now flat. All the charts that I follow are bullish for much higher prices. It was noticeable that despite the spike in Treasury Yields that the Dollar weakened. Once these severely overbought Bond Markets start to rally then the S&P can rocket into year-end which is still my preferred strategy. As long as the S&P can hold the 4300/4320 support area I will continue to be a buyer on dips. Today, I will again be a buyer from 4338/4353 with the same 4329 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro closed higher yesterday, and I am still flat as my buy range was never touched. However, I will not chase the Euro higher, leaving my 1.0440/1.0520 unchanged with the same 1.0395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has resistance from 106.70/107.30 where I will again be a seller with the same 107.75 higher ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well yesterday. The DAX traded lower to my 15120-buy level before rallying to my 15190 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 15020/15105 with the same 14935 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat as the FTSE continues to ignore the volatility in both the DAX and American Indexes. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7510/7590 with the same 7435 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed yesterday’s buy range before rallying over 200 points off its 33835 low print. Today, I will raise my buy level to 33580/33830 with a higher 33455 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 33990. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Following the much larger than expected U.S. Retail Sales print the NDX hit a low at 14935. This move lower saw my 15030 second buy level triggered for a 15085 average long position. Subsequently, the NDX rallied 250 points off this low, hitting my 15180 T/P level and I am now flat. When you consider than Bond Yields are near their highs for the year this is impressive action by the NASDAQ as yet again short positions have to be quick to take any profit before it evaporates. This morning the NDX is trading at 15100 as I go to press. We have support from 14900/15040 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 14795 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December BUND
Yesterday’s sell-off saw the Bund hit my second buy level at 128.35 for a now 128.70 average long position. I will leave my 127.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 129.30. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold. The market performed well as Gold hung on to most of Friday’s aggressive 3% move higher. Gold has support from 1880/1895 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 1869 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from five weeks ago at 24.05. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading slightly higher at 22.85. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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