U.S. were choppy on Tuesday, as US traders and investors returned from the US holiday, but ultimately settled with mild gains. After the US cash equity open, Indices saw a notable sell-off with the Mag-7 leading the decline, ex-Apple, although swiftly pared through the afternoon. For Apple, Wedbush wrote that the recent selloff in the tech behemoth is unwarranted, and that 2026 will be the year Apple gets into the AI game. Data came via weaker-than-expected NAHB and New York Fed, which marginally topped on the headline, with internals steady; the latter sparked some gradual pressure in T-Notes. The highlight of the day, and dominating the tape, was geopolitical updates with both the US/Iran meeting, and also the trilateral confab between the US/Russia/Ukraine. On the former, the crude complex saw notable weakness after the Iranian Foreign Minister said they have reached an understanding on the main principles with the US, but it does not mean an agreement will be reached soon; the path has started. In more recent trade, US Vice President Vance remarked that in some ways, Iran talks went well, and Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of Trump’s red lines. On the trilateral meeting, where little new was learnt, Zelensky told Axios that the Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to Russia. The main sticking point is control of the Donbas, and talks in Geneva are expected to continue on Wednesday. The Dollar Index was marginally stronger, with Antipodeans and the Japanese Yen the gainers, and Sterling the G10 loser on a weak UK jobs report. Treasuries were mixed across the curve, with the short-end weaker and the long-end seeing losses. Spot Gold was lower and trades back beneath USD 4900/oz. Ahead, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday is arguably the highlight, as well as a 20 Year-bond auction. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 7.1 from 7.7, above the 7.00 expected. Business activity increased modestly; new orders, inventories, unfilled orders and employment increased, while shipments and supply availability held steady. Additionally, the pace of input prices rose and selling price increases picked up with capital spending plans strengthening. Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the NY Fed, said firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve, with employment expected to grow. The NAHB housing market Index for February unexpectedly fell to 36 from 37, shy of the expected 38. Within the release, current sales conditions held steady at 41, sales expectations in the next six months fell to 46 from 49, and traffic of prospective buyers dipped to 22 from 24. Overall, Oxford Economics notes that the report lends some downside risk to its forecast for Housing Starts to gradually improve over H1 ‘26. However, OxEco do think that lower mortgage rates and stabilising labour market conditions will eventually support an improvement in new home sales and housing construction, although builders will need to work off some of their existing inventory first. Fed Member Barr said it is prudent for the Fed to take time and look at data, before changing policy again; outlook suggests the Fed will hold rates steady for some time, and they can afford to take its time on monetary policy. On inflation, wants to see more evidence that inflation is ebbing to 2% target, and still sees ‘significant risk’ inflation will stay over 2% and believes it’s reasonable to think price pressures will further cool. On labour, he noted that the market is in balance but vulnerable to shock, with recent data pointing to a stabilising job market. Elsewhere, Barr said the AI boom is unlikely to lead to lower Fed interest rates and added that there is little evidence so far that AI is driving up unemployment. Further, Barr said R-star has risen slightly but not dramatically and that AI investment is ‘wildly indifferent’ to what the Fed rate target is. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.67% and Gold by 2.27%.
To mark my 3325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 295 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4962 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.10% higher at a price of 6843.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher for a 0.07% gain at a price of 49,533.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.13% lower at a price of 24,701.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.13% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.42% lower at a price of 56,566.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.28% higher.
The Euro closed 0.08% lower at $1.1843.
The British Pound closed 0.61% lower at $1.3557.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.5% closing at $153.38.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 2 basis points lower at 4.38%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.74%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.04%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.67% lower at $62.47 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.29% lower at $4880.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI and PPI at 7.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts and Building Permits at 1.30 pm followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. At 6.00 pm we have a 20-Year Treasury Auction followed by a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 6.05 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Minutes at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It is noticeable that over the past 24 months U.S. stocks are underperforming and starting to stall. Momentum is no longer a U.S. dynamic while since the summer of 2024, US Equities have started to underperform the rest of the world. Meanwhile US equities account for more than two thirds of the MCSI World Index. Everyone and their dog is overweight the US, perhaps not relative to benchmarks, but certainly relative to the weight of the US economy in Global GDP. The S&P is trading at stretched multiples with earnings that are hardly depressed and may well be close to cyclical highs. On a simple ratio of Market Cap to Money Supply, US stocks are as richly valued as they have ever been. With US Markets underperforming the rest of the world for the past three years it begs the question what will need to happen for the US to begin outperforming again? These are some of the reasons why I continue to be a seller of rallies and patiently wait to buy the S&P like we have done for most of February. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well with the market hitting my 6790-buy level before rallying 50 Handles. This move higher saw my 6816 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The S&P has short-term resistance from 6890/6915 where I will be a small seller with a 6935 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is on a further move lower to 6748/6773 with a lower 6729 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6862. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6898. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro again traded in narrow range on Tuesday. I will leave my 1.1700/1.1780 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1635 tight ‘Closing Stop’. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.2040/1.2120 where I will be a small seller with a 1.2205 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1850. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1960.
Dollar Index
Finally, the Dollar rallied to my 97.15 T/P level on my latest 96.80 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of the Dollar on any further dip lower to 96.00/96.80 with the same 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 97.30.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell. Today, I will leave my 2680/2740 sell level unchanged with the same 2795 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2640.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to trade close to all-time highs, ignoring all the negative price action elsewhere. This move higher saw my 10520-sell level triggered. I am still short and I will continue to look to add to this position at 10610 with the same 10675 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 10450. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow continues to attract strong buying on any dip. The Dow has short-term support from 48850/49150 where I will be a small buyer with a 48595 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller from 50150/50450 with the same 50705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49390. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 49830. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: I am still flat. As we are having a super month there is no need to take undue risks as I prefer to be patient and wait for my levels to be executed. Today, I will leave my sell level unchanged from 25100/25300 with the same 25505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24940. The NDX has short-term support below from 24150/24350 where I will be a strong buyer with a 23995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24570.
December BUND
Since 2012. Investors in Japanese Government Bonds have lost roughly half their money in US Dollar terms. By any standard, this is a terrible outcome. While the Japanese Yen has recently bounced, over the past 12 months JGBs remain the only major bond market still delivering negative returns to investors. So far, higher yields have not so far been sufficient to lure investors back into JGBs. Moreover, the aggressive fiscal spending plans of the Takaichi Government are unlikely to generate much enthusiasm for Japanese Bonds. As a result, the path of least resistance for JGBs is likely higher. In turn, this raises a genuine quandary for other Sovereign Bond Markets. As seems likely, JGB Yields continue to creep higher, can US, German and UK Bond Yields fall meaningfully. This is the main reason why I cannot chase the Bund Yield lower. The Bund has short-term resistance from 129.70/130.50 where I will be a seller with a 131.25 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold was weak again on Tuesday, closing lower by a further 2.25%. I am still flat. Today, I will lower my buy level to 4700/4780 with the same 4595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4895. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Silver has short-term support from 67.10/71.50 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 64.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 74.10
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