U.S. were choppy on Tuesday, as US traders and investors returned from the US holiday, but ultimately settled with mild gains. After the US cash equity open, Indices saw a notable sell-off with the Mag-7 leading the decline, ex-Apple, although swiftly pared through the afternoon. For Apple, Wedbush wrote that the recent selloff in the tech behemoth is unwarranted, and that 2026 will be the year Apple gets into the AI game. Data came via weaker-than-expected NAHB and New York Fed, which marginally topped on the headline, with internals steady; the latter sparked some gradual pressure in T-Notes. The highlight of the day, and dominating the tape, was geopolitical updates with both the US/Iran meeting, and also the trilateral confab between the US/Russia/Ukraine. On the former, the crude complex saw notable weakness after the Iranian Foreign Minister said they have reached an understanding on the main principles with the US, but it does not mean an agreement will be reached soon; the path has started. In more recent trade, US Vice President Vance remarked that in some ways, Iran talks went well, and Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of Trump’s red lines. On the trilateral meeting, where little new was learnt, Zelensky told Axios that the Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to Russia. The main sticking point is control of the Donbas, and talks in Geneva are expected to continue on Wednesday. The Dollar Index was marginally stronger, with Antipodeans and the Japanese Yen the gainers, and Sterling the G10 loser on a weak UK jobs report. Treasuries were mixed across the curve, with the short-end weaker and the long-end seeing losses. Spot Gold was lower and trades back beneath USD 4900/oz. Ahead, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday is arguably the highlight, as well as a 20 Year-bond auction. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 7.1 from 7.7, above the 7.00 expected. Business activity increased modestly; new orders, inventories, unfilled orders and employment increased, while shipments and supply availability held steady. Additionally, the pace of input prices rose and selling price increases picked up with capital spending plans strengthening. Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the NY Fed, said firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve, with employment expected to grow. The NAHB housing market Index for February unexpectedly fell to 36 from 37, shy of the expected 38. Within the release, current sales conditions held steady at 41, sales expectations in the next six months fell to 46 from 49, and traffic of prospective buyers dipped to 22 from 24. Overall, Oxford Economics notes that the report lends some downside risk to its forecast for Housing Starts to gradually improve over H1 ‘26. However, OxEco do think that lower mortgage rates and stabilising labour market conditions will eventually support an improvement in new home sales and housing construction, although builders will need to work off some of their existing inventory first. Fed Member Barr said it is prudent for the Fed to take time and look at data, before changing policy again; outlook suggests the Fed will hold rates steady for some time, and they can afford to take its time on monetary policy. On inflation, wants to see more evidence that inflation is ebbing to 2% target, and still sees ‘significant risk’ inflation will stay over 2% and believes it’s reasonable to think price pressures will further cool. On labour, he noted that the market is in balance but vulnerable to shock, with recent data pointing to a stabilising job market. Elsewhere, Barr said the AI boom is unlikely to lead to lower Fed interest rates and added that there is little evidence so far that AI is driving up unemployment. Further, Barr said R-star has risen slightly but not dramatically and that AI investment is ‘wildly indifferent’ to what the Fed rate target is. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.67% and Gold by 2.27%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 295 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4962 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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