U.S. Equity Markets again closed higher as investors wait for Federal Reserve officials to pause their tightening campaign received backing from yesterday’s consumer price index (CPI) data which came in better than expected with a 4% print. The CPI report, showed that falling energy prices in May offset increases in other categories, resulting in a relatively unchanged headline index. This data is likely to discourage the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee from implementing an 11th consecutive increase in its benchmark interest rate following the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting this evening. Apple (AAPL) shares surged to an all-time high, marking its second record closing since January 2022. The tech giant’s stock rose 0.25% to reach $184.18, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index with a year-to-date gain of over 41%. Apple’s recent unveiling of the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset contributed to the intraday record, while its robust financial performance, strong balance sheet, and successful revenue streams have solidified its status as a preferred investment option. Furthermore, investors remain optimistic about Apple’s expansion and revitalisation plans for its retail chain. The European Union’s antitrust regulators are reportedly considering pursuing a breakup of Google’s (GOOGL) advertising-technology business as part of a new antitrust complaint. The European Commission is expected to file a formal complaint against Google, alleging that the company abuses its dominant position in the digital ads market. Specifically, Google is accused of exploiting its role as a major broker, supplier, and online auctioneer of digital ads on third-party websites and apps. As part of the case, EU officials are contemplating ordering Google to divest certain components of its ad-tech business. This development marks an escalation in the ongoing battle to reduce Google’s grip on the digital advertising industry and follows similar efforts in the United States. Netflix (NFLX) is reportedly in talks to live-stream its inaugural sporting event this fall, featuring a celebrity golf tournament with professional golfers and Formula One drivers. The tournament, set to take place in Las Vegas, would showcase celebrities from Netflix’s docuseries “Drive to Survive” and “Full Swing.” This move signifies Netflix’s initial venture into live-streaming sports, an idea that has been debated among executives for over a year. While discussions are still in the early stages, this potential step into sports streaming follows the footsteps of other major streaming companies that have acquired sports rights packages to attract new subscribers and boost advertising revenue. European Markets closed higher. Investor confidence in Germany’s economy unexpectedly increased, indicating a slight improvement from the country’s recent recession caused by the pandemic. The ZEW institute’s gauge of expectations rose to -8.5 in June, surpassing expectations, though the index of current conditions experienced a significant decline. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that experts do not foresee a significant improvement in the economic situation for the latter half of the year. However, the downturn is generally not seen as overly concerning. Megan Greene, the newest rate setter at the Bank of England (BOE), expressed support for the decision to raise interest rates in May and emphasised the importance of “leaning against” the risk of enduring price pressures. Speaking before Parliament, Greene highlighted the need for the BOE to be concerned about inflationary pressures, emphasising the importance of reining in these forces to prevent long-term damage to the economy. Greene advocated for proactive measures by the BOE to address forthcoming inflation dynamics rather than reacting to existing ones, urging the central bank to employ its tools pre-emptively. While the improved investor confidence offers a glimmer of hope, the overall recovery outlook remains modest for Germany’s economy. In Asia, China is reportedly exploring a wide-ranging package of stimulus measures in response to mounting pressure on President Xi Jinping’s government to bolster the country’s economy, which stands as the world’s second-largest. The stimulus proposals have been drafted by multiple government agencies and include a minimum of twelve measures aimed at supporting sectors like real estate and domestic demand to address the economic challenges facing China. Elsewhere, Oil rose 3.11%, reversing most of Monday’s fall while Gold fell 1% on profit-taking.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 400 points yesterday and is now ahead by 810 points for June. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.69% higher at a price of 4369.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 145 points higher for a 0.43% gain at a price of 34,212.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.79% higher at a price of 14,900.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.63% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.80% higher at a price of 33,018.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0798.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at 1.2610.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $140.20.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 2.42%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 4.43%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 3.79%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.11% higher at $69.21 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.0% lower at $1941.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Wholesale Prices at 7.00 am. At the same time, we have the U.K. Trade Balance, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, GDP and Index of Services. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production, followed by U.S. PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement at 7.00 am and the Powell press conference at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
A weaker than expected U.S. CPI print on top of a surprise rate cut out of China saw Global stocks markets rally again yesterday. The S&P left another unfilled gap as the relentless move towards 4400 continues. No two-way price action just a gradual increase almost every day. The 14-Day RSI closed at an overbought 72 last night. As I said to my Platinum Members buying a market with an RSI north of 70 is never a good idea no matter what these vertical charts imply. However, any sell-off to the 50-Day MAs will see markets oversold. I am still looking for this kind of move into the end of June before we enter the seasonally strong July. There is no sign of any selling as there appears to be an inexhaustible supply of money willing to pay whatever valuation to get into the market. Until this changes risk remains higher as we approach the June Quadruple Expiration on Friday for the June Contracts ahead of another three-day weekend in the States. The lack of two-way price action makes trading difficult as I was stopped out of Monday’s 4335 average short position at 4366 and I am now flat. Hopefully we will see some vol this evening after the FOMC Statement. The S&P has resistance from 4380/4400 where I will again be a seller with no stop. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 4355. The S&P has support from 4290/4310 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4279 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4331.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro traded higher yesterday, and I am still flat. Ahead of the FOMC Statement I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0650/1.0720 with the same 1.0595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
My short Dollar plan worked well as the market sold off to my 103.30 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 103.75/104.45 with the same 105.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Wrong! I was stopped out of my latest 16050 short position at 16210 yesterday and I am still flat. I am going to stay flat the DAX as I do not have an edge in this severely overvalued market at this time. Hopefully we will get more clarity after the latest ECB Rate hike tomorrow. The DAX surged yesterday, reversing all of the last week’s losses.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade heavy, and I am still flat. The FTSE has strong support from 7480/7540. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 7425 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
In hindsight I should have just stayed long the Dow below 33,000 against my attempted shorts in both the S&P and NDX. Yet again the max oversold reading in the $NYSI again proved to be a strong buy signal. One more up day will see this reading maximum overbought when we get the next print on Tuesday. I am still flat the Dow. I will now raise my buy level to 33700/33950 with a higher 33595 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX is on course to close higher for an unprecedented eight consecutive week. This move higher sees the NDX approaching a historic wall being so far extended above its 200 Day Moving Average which comes in at a price of 12200. Yesterday’s move higher has me short again at a price of 14880. I will add to this position at 15030 while leaving my 15105 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level on this position at 14730. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
Despite weaker CPI, the Bund sold off to my 133.70 buy level. I will add to this position at 133.00 while leaving my 132.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 134.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
After Gold hit my 1943 initial buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1946 and I am now flat. I do not like the price action in Gold as every time we approach the $2000 major resistance area we see strong selling. We have had a number of tests of the 100-day Moving Average over the past few weeks, weaking this support level. Gold has support before from 1895/1910 where I will be a stronger buyer with an 1879 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still an aggressive buyer on any dip lower 22.80/23.60 with the same no stop.
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