Apple shares came under pressure late yesterday following the announcement of the iPhone15 and a new Apple watch. The 2.5% decline in the share price following the event to a session low and highlights the ‘’Sell the Fact’’ reaction. The negative reaction to Apple’s event saw the NASDAQ 100 lead yesterday’s losses, closing lower by 1.11% while the VIX ended Tuesday’s session with a 3% gain. Charter Communications (CHTR) and Disney (DIS) have struck a deal to end blackouts of Disney-owned channels for millions of customers. While the financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, Charter won the rights to include ad-supported Disney+ and ESPN+ streaming services in its pay-TV packages. Additionally, Charter will have access to the streamed version of the flagship ESPN network when it launches in the future. Disney had lobbied for an increase in the fees Charter paid to carry its channels, while Charter wanted more flexibility to offer tailored pay-TV packages. The deal represents a compromise between the two parties, and Charter will continue to carry key Disney channels while narrowing its line-up by removing less popular networks. Apple (AAPL) has extended its agreement with Qualcomm (QCOM) to source modem semiconductors from the chipmaker for another three years, covering the next smartphone launches through 2026. The contract extension suggests that Apple’s in-house chip development is taking longer than anticipated. Apple currently makes up a quarter of Qualcomm’s revenue and has helped cement the semiconductor giant as a leader in 5G chip technologies. While Apple aims to eventually replace Qualcomm’s modems with its own, the new agreement still sent Qualcomm’s shares up nearly 4% in midday trading on Monday. J.M. Smucker (JSM) has agreed to acquire Hostess Brands (TWNK) in a deal valued at roughly $5.6 billion. The acquisition comes as packaged-foods companies are attempting to innovate or acquire new brands to retain shoppers who are opting for healthier, fresher foods. Hostess owns a variety of popular brands and products such as Twinkies, DingDongs, Donettes, and Zingers. According to statement regarding the acquisition, Hostess shareholders will receive $34.25 in cash and stock for each of their shares. TWNK shares spiked on the news, rising more than 19% in midday trading. Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, warned that the U.S. banking industry could lose between $200 billion and $250 billion from office real estate amid shifting workplace trends. Elevated interest rates and tight lending conditions have exacerbated the problem for property developers. Bass believes that commercial real estate losses in general will mostly be seen in the office space sector, while industrial and multifamily segments remain strong. If his prediction rings true, it will result in a roughly 10% loss to U.S bank equities. European Markets closed mixed. Bank of England (“BOE”) member Catherine Mann said she thinks it is too soon for the central bank to stop interest-rate hikes, favouring the overtightening of rates rather than a premature halt. Mann is concerned that self-sustaining inflation pressure would be harder to swallow than an economic downturn from overtightening. Her stance differs from that of BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, who recently indicated that the central bank is closer to ending its rate hikes. The BOE is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on September 22, with markets expecting a rate hike to 5.5% from the current 5.25%. In Asia, China recently released positive economic indicators that suggest a potential stabilisation in the nation’s economy following its sharp downturn. Credit data showed that demand for mortgages and corporate loans has begun to increase, which has helped ease deflationary pressures and bolster the Yuan. While these developments are a boon for the Chinese economy, there are still challenges ahead – particularly the ongoing property crisis and overall weak economic confidence. China’s policies may generate short-term rebounds but, to sustain growth, the government might need to consider interest-rate cuts or additional support for the property sector. Elsewhere Oil rose to an eight-month high with a 2% gain while Gold closed lower by 0.6%.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 286 points yesterday and is now ahead by 487 points for September, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.57% lower at a price of 4461.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points lower for a 0.05% loss at a price of 34,645.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.11% lower at a price of 15,289.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.17% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.95% higher at a price of 32,776.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0755.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 124.93.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $147.10.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.65%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.42%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.28%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2% higher at $89.02 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% lower at $1913.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K July GDP which fell 0.5% versus -0.2% expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am, followed by the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have CPI at 1.30 pm and a 30-Year Treasury Note Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as the market sold off to my 4469-buy level. Subsequently we got the expected rally on the Apple news helping the S&P to spike to a 4487-afternoon high. This move higher saw my 4478 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The S&P could not close the 4496 ‘’Open Gap’’ from last week and sold off over 25 Handles into the close. This move lower saw the S&P again close below its 50 Day Moving Average (4480) and is trading lower at 4458 this morning. With the $NYSI near max oversold it is very difficult to make a bearish case despite yesterday’s aggressive fall in Oracle Shares and the late sell-off in Apple shares to near last week’s low print. The $BPSPX 14-Day RSI closed at an oversold 23 last night again making it difficult to press the downside. This RSI reading sees some positive divergence. Last week’s Double Bottom at 4440 should offer strong support. With CPI being released at 1.30 pm we should see plenty of two-way volatility. I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 4427/4442 with a lower 4415 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my 1.0710 buy level before having a small rally. As I want to bank points after a slow start to September, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1.0735 and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0640/1.0710 with the same higher 1.0585 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar at 104.70. I will continue to look to add to this position at 105.30 with the same 105.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 104.35. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 15710-buy level shortly after I posted before rallying to my revised 15761 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX continues to trade between two important trendlines. I still maintain that the DAX is still one decent positive day from making a run to 16000/16200. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 15500/15580 with a lower 15435 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE was the strongest of the European Indexes yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 7580/7640 with a higher 7705 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a wild session yesterday, hitting an afternoon low at 34560 before surging 300 points. This initial move higher saw the Dow briefly trade above its 50-Day Moving Average but the Apple news reversed most of this move with the Dow trading lower at 34600 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 34180/34430 with a higher 34055 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the Dow trading below its 50-Day MA, I do not want to be short.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well helped by the 9% fall in Oracle Shares. This move lower saw my 15330-buy level triggered before rallying to my revised 15400 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The Apple reversal saw the NDX sell-off into the close. The NDX has support from 15080/15240 where I will a strong buyer with a lower 14945 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December BUND
This morning the Bund opened in yesterday’s buy range. I am now long in small size at 130.35. I will add to this position at 129.75 while leaving my 128.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level at 130.80 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
After Gold hit my 1909 buy level I had too much exposure looking for a weaker Dollar. As a result, I exited this long position at my revised 1914 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has support below from 1880/1895 where I will be an aggressive buyer with an 1869 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 24.05. Silver is trading lower at 23.10 this morning. Buying the dip has worked almost every time in Silver over the past two years. However, just like Gold finding strong resistance from 1960/2000, Silver is seeing a lot of selling between 24.00 and 25.00. I will now lower my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to 21.95. If Silver drops from here, I will come back with a new level to add to my existing long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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