U.S. Equity Markets reversed afternoon gains before selling off into the close. The NASDAQ 100 again led the declines with a loss of 0.36%. The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) data for March rose 8.5% year over year compared with Wall Street’s anticipated 8.4% gain and the prior month’s rise of 7.9%. On a month-over-month basis, those same numbers increased by 1.2%, in line with estimates and above February’s gain of 0.8%. This headline number was better than the so-called “whisper” expectation for a double-digit percentage increase. However, if inflation does not moderate, sentiment could grow more pessimistic. Institutional investors remain worried about the impact of higher prices on consumer demand. They are also concerned that rising costs for energy and food will force individuals to pass up on items they want in favour of ones they need. And in this instance, it may lead to slowing economic growth ahead of the upcoming earnings season. Within the S&P 500 Index, four of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. Germany’s 10-year sovereign bond yields continued to gain on increasing speculation the European Central Bank will be forced to raise interest rates sooner than later. European Union (“EU”) Foreign Ministers from Ireland, Lithuania, and the Netherlands said the group was drawing up legislation to ban the import of Russian oil. The oil cartel OPEC told EU officials that the Russian oil supply lost due to sanctions will be impossible to replace. In Asia, The Chinese city of Shanghai announced more than 23,000 new COVID-19 cases as lockdowns remained largely in place for the country’s financial and manufacturing hub. The Bank of Japan lowered its growth assessment for eight of its nine regional economies, citing supply-chain bottlenecks and COVID-19 infections. China’s new Yuan loans for March surpassed expectations, more than doubling from February’s level, as local governments raised funds to pay for stimulus plans. Japanese Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki said the government was closely tracking foreign exchange developments, implying it may step in to support the weakening yen. Elsewhere, Oil rose 6.64% after China loosened some of its COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC warned that the global crude supply would remain tight, while Gold closed 0.61% higher after U.S. consumer inflation showed little signs of easing.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 235 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 1006 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.34% lower at a price of 4397.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 87 points lower for a 0.26% loss at a price of 34,220.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.36% lower at a price of 13,940.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.49% higher at a price of 26,821.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.0831.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3004.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2%, closing at $125.46.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.79%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 1.80%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points lower 2.73%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.64% higher at $100.94 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.61% higher at $1967.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI and PPI at 7.00 am. Next, we have the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. This is followed by PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
In contrast to Monday, my S&P plan worked well yesterday with the market rallying to my 4470 sell level before trading lower to my 4453 T/P level in what turned out to be a volatile trading session and I am still flat. Having hit an afternoon high at 4471, the S&P fell 75 Handles into the close as yet again the Bears remain in full control. The S&P has resistance from 4435/4455 where I will be a small seller with a 4472 stop which is just above yesterday’s high print. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 4340/4360 with the same no stop policy for now.
EUR/USD
Just before the New York close, the Euro traded lower to my 1.0820 buy level. I will add to this trade at 1.0760 while leaving my 1.0855 T/P level unchanged. My stop remains at 1.0695 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 100.35/100.85 with the same 101.21 stop.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 13880 initial buy level before rallying to my 13945 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 13740/13840 with a lower 13655 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 13905.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to ignore the movements in the other main Indexes and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 7620/7680 with the same 7718 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7580.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow missed my initial 34080 buy level by 22 points before rallying 500 points at one stage before reversing most of these gains into close and I am still flat. As I go to press this morning, the Dow is trading at 34300. We have support from 33780/33980 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a now lower 33595 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time given the extent of the decline since last Monday.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still aggressively long at an average price of 14327. I will now lower my exit level to 14270 which is just below yesterday’s high print I will continue to have no stop and I will be back with an update for my Platinum Members after we get the release of PPI at 1.30 pm.
June BUND
The Bund traded lower to my second buy level at 154.50 for a now 156.40 average long position. I will now look to exit this trade for a small loss at 155.95 while continuing with no stop for now. If any of these levels are filled, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1917/1932 with a higher 1903 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1940.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver never came close to yesterday’s buy level before following Gold higher, sitting at 25.40 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 24.10/24.70 with a higher 23.45 stop.
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