Despite a 1% fall in the Bank Index, U.S. Equity Markets closed higher on Monday, led again by the NASDAQ 100. The NDX ended the session with a small gain of 0.37% while the VIX closed flat following a quiet start to the week. One notable exception was the eight-basis point rally in 10-Year Treasuries. Markets recovered some losses earlier in the month last week with the S&P 500 closing the week up nearly 6%, just shy of half the yearly gains. Markets were fuelled by a busy week both on Main Street and Wall Street with Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) closing up 6% and 11%. Investors seemed to shrug off the two most anticipated events last week as the Fed kept rates unchanged and Apple (AAPL) reported tepid results on the backs of weakening sales. While this week is far less eventful, investors will be keen to see if markets can maintain the positive momentum. Investors will need to focus on the Federal Reserve this week as it prepares to unveil significant consumer debit and credit figures alongside key speeches by top officials. This afternoon, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will publish its latest quarterly report on household debt and credit, providing insights into the financial status of American households during the third quarter. Later in the week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech at the IMF’s annual research conference. In light of the recent weakening in the job market reported last Friday, investors should pay close attention to any hints from Powell regarding his stance on the labour market potentially softening. Such an indication could signal a definitive conclusion to the Fed’s cycle of rate tightening. Elsewhere this week, investors should keep a close eye on the University of Michigan’s release of November Consumer Sentiment Index, a crucial measure that gauge’s consumer perceptions regarding personal finances and the overall economy. European Markets closed lower. On the global front, significant figures such as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled for public speaking engagements. In addition, it’s crucial for investors to remain vigilant about the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The major concern lies in the potential expansion of the conflict to involve OPEC+ nations (like Iran) and the West (specifically the U.S.). Such an escalation could have significant repercussions and pose considerable downside risks. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.42% higher while Gold fell 0.6%.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 160 points yesterday and is now ahead by 165 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.18% higher at a price of 4365.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 34 points higher for a 0.1% gain at a price of 34,095.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.37% higher at a price of 15,154.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.16% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.37% higher at a price of 32,708.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.22% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0720.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 123.41.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $150.05.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.74%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 4.38%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 4.65%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.42% higher at $80.85 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% lower at $1978.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Industrial Production at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am. Next, we have the U.S. Trade Balance at 1.30 pm and speeches from Fed Members Waller and Williams at 3.00 pm and 5.00 pm respectively. Finally, we have Consumer Credit at 8.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
One of the quietest sessions for the S&P in many weeks as the market tries to consolidate last week’s 6% gain. Despite all three American Indexes posting a positive gain on Monday, internally the market was very weak as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which fell 95 points, closing at +183. Short-term the S&P is severely overbought. With the Government Funding running out on November 17 there is plenty of scope for sell-off in the market ahead of this key political event. However, any sell-off will get bought ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday and the seasonally strong first week of December. I am still flat the S&P as I continue to be a small seller from 4388/4405 with a 4422 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support from 4320/4335. I will be a strong buyer on any dip to this area with a tight 4305 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro has support from 1.0610/1.0670 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.0555 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a strong buyer on any further dip lower to 104.00/104.60 with the same tight 103.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Following last week’s 200 point move lower I no longer want to be a buyer of the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
The DAX traded heavy yesterday and I am still flat. The DAX has short-term support from 14930/15010 where I will be a buyer with a tight 14855 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the overbought condition of the market I have no interest in being short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow 50-point range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7290/7360 with the same 7245 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow missed my 34180-sell level by 15 points before falling 150 points off this high and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my sell level to 34250/34450 while leaving my 34605 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 34110. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has now closed higher for the 22nd consecutive Monday. This is an incredible statistic and came against a background of rising bond yields. I was stopped out of my 14965 average short position at 15125 and I am still flat. The NDX has further resistance from 15200/15350 where I will again be a seller with a 15505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 15080.
December BUND
The Bund never came close to yesterday’s sell range, falling 80 points from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. The Bund has strong support from 128.10/128.90 where I will be a buyer with a 127.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Bund has strong resistance from 130.60/131.30. I will now lower my sell level to this range with a lower 132.05 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite the much weaker Dollar, Gold ended the week below the key $2000 pivot point. Although Gold is overbought, I have no interest in having a short position. I will leave my 1954/1969 buy level unchanged with the same 1945 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from six weeks ago at 24.05. Silver has traded in a narrow 100-point range with very small daily ranges over the past few weeks. I am extremely bullish of Silver while frustrated that Silver has not followed the price of Gold higher. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading slightly lower at 23.15. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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