The NASDAQ 100 made new highs for 2023 after Apple held its annual Worldwide Developer Conference. Investors were eagerly anticipating the event, where they hope to catch a glimpse of Apple’s highly anticipated and first-ever augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset. This product launch is particularly significant for the company, as it represents its most significant hardware release since the introduction of the Apple Watch in 2015. Apple made new highs before closing lower by 1% dragging the NASDAQ lower with it. This week, keep an eye out for the Federal Reserve’s release of consumer credit data, shedding light on U.S. consumer borrowing in April. In March, borrowing surged by $26.5 billion, the fastest pace in four months, with credit card balances soaring by 17.3%. Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, consumers have continued to spend using credit, potentially jeopardising future balance sheet health for households. However, projections indicate a potential decrease in consumer borrowing for April, estimated at around $20 billion. The Federal Reserve has entered its blackout period in preparation for its upcoming monetary policy meeting scheduled for June 13-14. Investors currently anticipate a rate pause in June, with a potential final rate increase in July. On an international scale, the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia will both hold policy meetings this week, providing insights into their respective economies. Additionally, the European Central Bank will enter its quiet period on Thursday in preparation for its meeting on June 15. This week, investors should pay attention to the World Bank and OECD as they provide updates on the global economic outlook. This morning, the World Bank will release its latest projections for global growth, followed by the OECD with its own forecasts on the following day. Last month, the World Bank issued a warning about a potential slow-growth crisis in the global economy that could persist for the next decade. On the other hand, the OECD raised its global growth forecasts in March, but cautioned that the outlook remains fragile, with risks leaning toward the downside. European Markets closed lower while in Asia, the Nikkei surged a further 2.20%, closing above 32,000 for the first time in 33 years. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.57% while Gold closed lower by 0.60%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 552 points yesterday and is now ahead by 839 points for June. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.20% lower at a price of 4274.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 199 points lower for a 0.59% loss at a price of 33,563.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.07% higher at a price of 14.556.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.48% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.20% higher at a price of 32,217.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.40% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0712.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.2431.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5% closing at $139.55.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 13 basis points higher at 2.38%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 4.20%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 10 basis points higher at 3.70%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.57% higher at $72.15 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.60% lower at $1962.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Factory Orders at 7.00 am, followed by U.K. Construction PMI at 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. We have no U.S. data of note this afternoon.
Cash S&P 500
Incredible! The S&P has rallied over 100 Handles since Thursday afternoon’s 4170 low print led by the insane one-way price action in the major tech stocks. The ease with which the S&P broke the 4250 resistance point now means that this level should attract even more buying on any dip. With the $NYSI and $BPSPX maximum oversold my only interest in selling the S&P will be on rips looking for a quick profit. Friday’s move higher saw the August ‘’Open Gap’’ filled as the S&P closed the week above its Daily Bollinger Band. However, as we have seen with the main stocks this technical signal has not worked for the past few weeks as AI hit the news wires. Markets have ignored both a rising Dollar and rising Bond Yields to accomplish new 2023 highs. Last year this combination would have led to an aggressive sell-off. I was lucky on Friday as after the S&P hit my 4258-sell level on the NFP spike I emailed my Platinum Members to move their T/P level to 4244 which was filled before the late surge. Yesterday the S&P hit my second and third sell levels per emails to my Platinum Members telling them to sell at 4296 and again at 4297 before trading lower to my 4283 and 4287 T/P levels respectively and I am now flat. With Apple having a small reversal into the close I will continue to sell spikes in the S&P. Today, my sell level will be from 4290/4310 with no stop. The S&P has short term support from 4238/4253 where I will be a buyer with a 4225 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
Just before the New York close on Friday, the Euro hit my 1.0710 buy level. We made a Monday low at 1.0675 before having a small rally into last night’s close. I am still long as I continue to look to add to this position at 1.0650 with the same 1.0595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0765. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I am still flat as I continue to be a seller on any further rally to 104.50/105.10 with the same 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
For those of you who stuck to plan of selling the DAX with my wider stop then this strategy worked well for you. The DAX hit a Monday high at 16115 before falling 150 points into the New York close. After the market hit my 16040-sell level on Friday I had too many open positions. I covered this position at my revised 16018 T/P level, and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 16050/16150 with the same 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE has rallied hard since Friday morning, easily hitting my 7520 T/P level on my latest 7490 average long position and I am now flat. This morning the FTSE is trading at 7600. We have support from 7470/7530 where I will be a small buyer with a 7425 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow surged on Friday, trading over 700 points higher from where I marked prices on Friday morning. Thankfully we had no sell level in the Dow helped by the oversold readings in both the $NYSI and $SPBPX. Scarily both these charts are signalling higher prices despite the record complacency in the market. Friday’s surge sees the Dow close over its 50-Day Moving Average (33406) which will act as strong support on any initial test. As a result, I will now raise my buy level to 33150/33400 with a tight 32995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
One would have thought a total collapse in banking stocks would have produced a negative reaction in markets. Every other melt down in bank stocks in history has caused a severe correction. This time is different because of AI. Last week saw a record weekly inflow in tech stocks. This move higher saw my second sell level at 14570 triggered, for a now 14495 average short position. The 14-Day RSI closed at 77 last night. We have absolutely no fear in the market as the VIX closed at a three-year low on Friday at a price of 14.74. I will leave my 14705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 14430. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
June BUND
The Bund got hit hard since Friday’s Daily Commentary was published. The whole of my buy level was triggered for a now 134.90 average long position. I will leave my 133.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 135.30. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 1944 buy level before rallying to my 1957 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1930/1945 with the same 1919 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Yesterday morning Silver traded lower to my 23.40 buy level. I am still long with the same 24.20 T/P level. I will add to this position at 22.70 with the same no stop policy. If this changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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