Yesterday was another very quiet trading session with little or no movement at all in the main markets. They are not helped by the fact that most of Europe is now on holiday for the month of August. European Indices were initially stronger on the better than expected revision to the PMI Services, which rose from 49.6 to 49.8, but then they finished flat to negative in response to the weaker US Equity markets, with the Dow closing down 0.3%.
Currently the Australian Central Bank are meeting and are expected to cut rates by 0.25%. This is weighing heavily on the Australian Dollar which traded briefly below .89 versus the US Dollar, down from 1.10 earlier this year.
This morning, in terms of economic data releases, we have UK Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production at 9.30am and this is followed by German Factory Orders. Later at 1.30pm we have the US Trade Balance. This afternoon, the Fed’s Evans will speak to reporters in Chicago and answer questions on the economy. Hopefully the data releases today and his comments will get the markets moving again.
September S&P 500
For the second day in a row none of my parameters were hit as the market traded in an even narrower range than last Friday. Today I will still be a seller on any rally to 1706/1711 with a 1713 stop. If I am taken short and subsequently stopped out I will be a more aggressive seller in front of 1720 with a 1725 stop. I will also look to buy the market on any dip to 1690/1695 with a 1688 stop.
Euro/USD
The Euro just missed my 1.3230 buy level with a 1.3232 low before having a nice rally. Today I will lower my buy level to 1.3190/1.3220 with a 1.3175 stop. As I have mentioned for the last few weeks my only interest in going short the Euro is on a rally to 1.3370/1.3400 with a 1.3420 stop.
September FTSE
Unfortunately the FTSE dropped down to my 6580 buy level before stopping me out of this position at 6555 and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy level to 6520/6550 in small with a 6495 stop. I still do not want to be short at this time.
September DAX
The DAX plan worked well as shortly after I posted the market popped up on the better PMI Services data and I was able to cover my 8385 long position from last Friday at 8430 and I am now flat. Today I still like the market and I will use any dip to 8340/8370 to go long with a 8320 stop. My only interest in shorting the DAX is on a rally to 8500/8530 with a 8550 stop.
September BUND
The Bund dropped down to my 142.40 buy level and I am still long with the same 141.95 stop. A break and close below 142.00 will be very bearish.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded down to my 1305 buy level and I am now long in small with the same 1288 stop. Gold needs to rally today or else I will look to cut my position.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver also dropped down to my 19.72 buy level and I am also long in small with a 19.35 stop .Again as I mentioned over the last two weeks Silver needs to break 20.70 to confirm that the market has put in a decent bottom.
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