U.S. Equity Markets closed Monday with small losses following an ugly Home Sales Report and a dip back into contraction for manufacturing production. The theme of disappointing economic data saw Treasury Yields close nine basis points lower at 4.39%. No one really knows how the American consumer did over the weekend. On the one hand: Black Friday e-commerce spending popped 7.5% from a year earlier, reaching a record $9.8 billion in the U.S., according to an Adobe Analytics report, while Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton’s Black Friday store checks pointed to ~flat to down Y/Y traffic across Softlines Retail/Brands. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane visited various retailers on Black Friday, noting that overall traffic still appeared muted relative to 2019 at most “traditional” Black Friday weekend destinations. Finally, Mastercard ‘’Spendingpulse’’ said on Saturday that U.S. retail sales on Black Friday rose 2.5% year-over-year. The NASDAQ outperformed yesterday but none of the major Indexes were able to hold onto Friday’s positive closes. Small Caps got hit hard yesterday while despite the VIX closing higher by 1.7%, it still closed with a 12 Handle. And as the U.S. Dollar dropped, spot gold prices accelerated higher, breaking back above $2010 to its highest since May. Finally, financial conditions continue to loosen as I will talk about in my S&P commentary below. Elsewhere. Oil closed 0.9% lower while Gold rose 0.6% after a quiet trading session.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 350 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1187 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.20% lower at a price of 4550.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points lower for a 0.16% loss at a price of 35,333.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.13% lower at a price of 15,961.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.34% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.53% lower at a price of 33,447.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.17% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0953.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2627.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.5% closing at $148.63.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 2.55%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 4.21%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.39%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.82% lower at $74.92 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $2012.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Housing Price Index at 2.00 pm followed by Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Goolsbee, Waller and Bowman at 3.00 pm, 3.05 pm and 3.45 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Following a massive 450-Handle rally in less than three weeks, volatility has come to a halt resulting in the S&P trading in a 30 Handle range for the past week. Everyone knows we are short-term overbought with those investors who have missed this move higher waiting to pounce on any sell-off. With the $BPSPX RSI cooked at 82 you just cannot be net long against this background which I have been saying since last Tuesday. However, if we go by what happened in June, the S&P will only have a small sell-off before hitting its next target level at 4610. We still have not had a 5EMA reconnect which I wrote about in yesterday’s Daily Commentary. On Friday they crushed the VIX to the lowest level not only for this year but to the lowest level since Pre-COVID. I mentioned in my Commentary above about the loosing of financial conditions. Bank reserves increased by $62bn last week for a total increase of $308bn since October 10. This is the highest level of 2023, so it is no wonder that the S&P has exploded to the upside. The number of open gaps in both the S&P and VIX is unprecedented suggesting that some retracement is likely. This period between today and into mid-December offers the best opportunity for some two-way price action and possibly fill some of these open gaps. The traditional Santa rally does not really kick in until December 20. My short 4557 S&P position worked well as the market traded lower to my 4542 T/P level. Subsequently, the S&P rallied to my second sell level at 4560 as emailed to my Platinum Members before hitting my 4550 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 4565/4580 with the same 4591 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support below from 4510/4525 where I will be a small buyer with a 4499 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat the Euro as the market never came close to either my sell or buy level over the past 24 trading hours. The Euro has support from 1.0810/1.0890. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 1.0765 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to look to be a seller of rallies. The Euro has resistance from 1.0990/1.1060 where I will be a seller with the same 1.1105 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September Dollar Index
I am still long from last Friday at 103.40. I will continue to look to add to this position at 102.80, while leaving my 102.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 103.75. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change as the DAX again traded in a narrow range. It was the correct decision to stay away from the DAX last week as the market surprisingly has had an extremely small trading range. The DAX seems tired to me having rallied 1400 points in just over two weeks. We have resistance from 16110/16200 where I will be a small seller with a tight 16275 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE again traded in a narrow range, and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 7340/7410 buy level with the same 7285 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still short the Dow from last week at 35280. With the 14-Day RSI closing slightly lower at 71 last night, I am comfortable in being short. I will continue to look to add to this position at 33520 with the same tight 35705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 35155. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
After the NDX rallied late in yesterday’s session to my 16030-sell level we had a small sell-off to my 15975 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how severely overbought the short term technical are I just cannot justify a long position at this time. For this reason, I will continue to be a seller of rallies. The NDX has resistance from 16040/16190 where I will again be a seller with the same 16305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
Friday’s 130.40 long Bund position worked well as the market rose to my 130.85 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Bund is trading higher at 131.38. We have support from 130.00/130.80 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 129.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold finally closed over $2000 for the second consecutive trading session and I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Today, I will again raise my buy level slightly to 1975/1990 with a higher 1963 ‘’Closing Stop’’
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver closed higher yesterday despite falling short of my 25.00 T/P level on my seven-week large 24.05 long position. Today I will leave my T/P level unchanged while raising my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to 23.45. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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