U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed after it was announced that First Citizens Bancshares has agreed to acquire Silicon Valley Bank from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The Dow led the gains, closing higher by 0.60% while higher Treasury Yields weighed on Technology as the NASDAQ 100 posted a loss of 0.74%. Fed President Neel Kashkari admitted that the recent banking crisis makes the U.S. economy more vulnerable to a recession, but it is unclear to what extent yet. More and more investors are flocking to perceived safer investment alternatives following the banking-sector upheaval. Bank of America’s latest report on the flow of investor funds showed that more than $300 billion entered money-market funds over the past four weeks. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for March showed further deterioration as recession concerns are beginning to outweigh inflation fears. Finished goods’ prices fell below the series average for the first time since 2020. Within the S&P 500 Index, eight of 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said interest rates will likely not reach the peak seen in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said recent banking-system stress will lead to a meeting-by-meeting approach for future interest-rate decisions, while Isabel Schnabel said headline inflation is easing and higher interest rates should cool lending growth. The German IFO Business Climate Survey improved for the sixth consecutive month, showing that Europe’s largest economy remains stable despite regional banking woes. In Asia, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called on Chinese policymakers to boost spending in an attempt to support global economic growth. Chinese industrial profits for January and February contracted for the first time since August 2020 due to waning demand for overseas goods. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval rating exceeded disapproval numbers for the first time in seven months, signalling political continuity ahead of local elections. The People’s Bank of China added roughly $33 billion worth of funds to the financial system via reverse repurchase operations to ensure ample banking liquidity. Elsewhere, Oil surged 5.37% while Gold fell 1.58% despite a weaker Dollar.
To mark my 2750th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 147 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6013 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% higher at a price of 3977
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 194 points higher for a 0.60% gain at a price of 32,432.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.74% lower at a price of 12,673.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.05% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.44%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.33% higher at a price of 27,476.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0793.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2275.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $131.83.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points higher at 2.26%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 3.36%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 14 basis points higher at 3.51%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.37% higher at $72.98 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.58% lower at $1957.10 an ounce.
This afternoon on the Economic Front we have the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin at 12.00 pm. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S. Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance. Next, we have the Housing Price Index at 2.00 pm. At 2.15 pm we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm and a 5-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P rallied above 4000 on news that First Citizens Bank & Trust said it will acquire $110bn in assets, $56bn in Deposits, $72bn in loans of failed lender Silicon Valley Bank. This move helped the Bank Index to close higher by 2.5% on what turned out to be a very boring trading session. The late sell-off in the S&P means the market is stuck in limbo as we do not as yet have a breakthrough to the upside, while so far this year every move lower has been defended. Bulls need a break and close over the 50-Day Moving Average (4014) while the Bears need the 200 Day Moving Average at 3932 to break before we can see much lower prices. I am still of the view that with the seasonally strong April around the corner that the S&P breaks higher to my 4270/4290 target level before we see a more meaningful correction in May. I will now raise my S&P buy level to 3942/3962 with a higher 3929 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be a small seller from 4017/4032 with the same 4041 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro followed the rise in European Equities, trading to my revised 1.0795 T/P level on Friday’s 1.0750 latest long position. I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0670/1.0730 with a lower 1.0595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar saw a small sell-off yesterday, enabling me to cover my 103.30 short position at my 102.88 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 103.50/104.20. I will again be a seller in this range with a higher 104.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the market higher especially after the rise in Bond Yields over the past 24 hours. Therefore, I will leave 14820/14920 buy level unchanged with the same 14745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. It looks like the market is on hold until we get the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin this afternoon. Just like the DAX above I do not want to chase the FTSE higher, leaving my 7300/7380 buy level unchanged with the same 7215 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7430.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. Higher bank shares helped the Dow to outperform the other major Indexes yesterday as forecast in my Daily Commentary. I will now raise my buy level to 32050/32300 with a tight 31895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 12660 buy level before rallying to my 12730 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has support from 12430/12580 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 12295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite my view is for the NDX to underperform the Dow I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
June BUND
The Bund reversed some of Friday’s rally, trading lower to my 136.60 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 137.20 T/P level. I will add to this position at 135.80 while lowering my stop to 135.15 ‘’Closing Price’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Despite a weaker Dollar, Gold fell over 1.50% yesterday as traders continue to take profits at or near the now key $2000 resistance level. Yesterday’s move lower has me long at 1951. I have a 1960 T/P level on this position. I will add to this position at 1935 while lowering my stop to a ‘’Closing Price’’ at 1923. We have resistance from 2015/2030 where I will again be a small seller with a 2041 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from last month at a price of 23.10. Silver rallied again yesterday, sitting at 23.20 as I go to press. I will leave my 21.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now have a T/P level at 23.60 on this position. If any of the above changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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