US Indices closed higher on Monday as sentiment remains bullish ahead of a busy and important week of earnings (MSFT, META, TSLA, AAPL, ASML). Futures dipped on Sunday before erasing losses throughout APAC and EU trade. Downside was sparked by President Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Canada over recent trade ties with China, as well as the potential for a partial government shutdown following disagreement over ICE funding after a Minneapolis shooting on the weekend. Sector performance was led by Communications and Tech, while Consumer Discretionary was the sole sector in the red. Microsoft announced the Maia 200 chip, in the latest challenge to NVIDIA, an update that contributed to modest losses in NVDA shares (-0.7%). In FX, participants continued to look for US Dollar alternatives amid trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, leaving Gold and Silver rallying once again. Gold briefly surpassed USD 5,100/oz while Silver climbed above $117/oz before paring to ~108. The Japanese Yen extended on Friday’s strong strength after more verbal intervention, as well as participants mulling a potential joint US-Japan intervention. For Treasuries, the long-end outperformed while the 2 Year’s relative underperformance was limited by a strong 2 Year Treasury Note Auction. Attention turns towards the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, a possible Fed Chair announcement, as well as the beginning of Mag 7 earnings. Lastly, oil prices were lower following the return of Kazakhstan’s oil production at its largest oil field, although outages have occurred in the US amid Storm Fern. Natgas prices saw a fifth day of consecutive gains. Overall, it was a solid 2yr auction. The high yield was 3.580%, and saw a stop-through of 1.4bps. vs. the prior auctions 0.2bps tail and the six-auction average of a 0.3bps stop-through. Bid-to-cover was strong at 2.75x, above both the prior of 2.54x and the average of 2.6x. Dealers took a small 7.3% of the auction (prev. 12.7%, avg. 11.2%), while Directs took 28.3%, compared to 34.1% last time out and the six-auction average of 33.0%. Indirects took a very chunky 64.4% (prev. 53.2%, avg. 55.9%), ahead of the 5 and 7yr auctions later in the week. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.127% following another volatile session while Oil ended Monday with a 0.6% loss.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 123 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4309 points for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.50% higher at a price of 6950.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 313 points higher for a 0.64% gain at a price of 49,412.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 25,713.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.24% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.79% lower at a price of 52,885.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.53% lower.
The Euro closed 0.41% higher at $1.1868.
The British Pound closed 0.28% higher at $1.3680.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.95% closing at $154.20
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.50%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.87%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.21%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.65% lower at $60.67 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.27% higher at $5047.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the UK. At 1.15 pm we have the U.S. ADP Employment Report followed by a speech from President Trump at 1.30 pm. Next, we have the latest House Price Index and the Composite PMI at 2.00 pm. This is followed at 2.45 pm by the Bank of Canada Rate Decision. At 3.00 pm we have U.S. Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Finally, at 6.00 pm we have a Five-Year Treasury Auction.
Cash S&P 500
Monday’s trading session felt like a classic volatility-dispersion session for the stock market, with a handful of mega-cap tech names driving the S&P 500 higher while the rest of the index struggled to gain any real traction. The equal-weight RSP ETF finished up just 0.24%, versus 0.5% for the S&P. The spread between S&P 500 constituent volatility (VIXEQ) and the S&P 500 VIX index has widened to 23.1, putting it back near the upper end of its historical range. This measure typically peaks heading into earnings season. The last time we saw levels like this was at the end of October, which was followed by the market decline in November. Before that, similarly elevated readings occurred in January 2025 and July 2024, both of which were also followed by sharp pullbacks in the S&P 500. Taken together, this pattern suggests a strong signal that another pullback could be developing once earnings season is behind us. We have also seen weakness return in several private-equity names—such as Apollo, Blackstone, Ares, and Blue Owl—over the past few trading sessions, reversing much of the sharp gains they posted following the November sell-off. These stocks are worth watching because, in many ways, they may be reflecting the liquidity flows currently moving through the market. In addition, recent headlines around the group have turned somewhat more negative. Notably, these same stocks also led the decline we saw in October and November. The S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a now 6967 average short position. I will leave my 7001 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level to 6951. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Wrong! The Euro rallied late in Monday’s session, stopping me out of my 1.1745 average short position at 1.1868 and I am now flat. The Euro is severely overbought and due a correction. We have short-term resistance from 1.1940/1.2020 where I will again be a seller with a higher 1.2105 ‘Closing Strop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1850.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 96.00/96.80 with the same 95.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 97.40.
Russell 2000
Late Monday the Russell rallied to my 2685 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 2650 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 2755 while leaving my 2805 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are triggered I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
Overnight the FTSE traded higher to my 10180-sell level. I am still short with a now higher 10120 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 10260 while leaving my 10335 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Monday’s buy range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 48800/49050 with a higher 48595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49290.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat as the NDX never came close to yesterday’s buy range. This morning, the NDX is trading at 25870 which is now less than 300 points from all-time highs. The NDX has short-term resistance from 26010/26210 where I will be a small seller with a higher 26355 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25840
December BUND
I am still long the Bund at 127.50 from last Friday. I will continue to look to add to this position at 126.80 while leaving my 128.10 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am going to stay flat until normal conditions return. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
The SLV ETF implied volatility index (VXSLV) surged above 100 today, briefly peaking near 120 intraday—an extremely elevated level that could be consistent with a peak in silver prices. The last time we saw readings this high was during the COVID lows for silver in March 2020. This may be signalling a developing inflection point not just for silver, but for the broader metals complex, particularly given the sharp reversals seen yesterday in Platinum and Palladium, alongside Silver. Silver traded above $117 before hitting an overnight low at $ 102. These are insane moves and shows how dangerous it is for trading this market. The 14 DAY RSI peaked at 90 yesterday. This morning Silver is recovering some of these losses, trading at 110.30 as I go to post. Given the volatility trading Silver may not be your cup of tea. If you want to trade this market, I would only trade in a fraction of your normal position size. In March 2020 Silver was trading at $11. Silver has resistance from 115.00/117.00 where I will be a tiny seller with a 118.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 110.50.
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