U.S. Equity Markets closed positive yesterday but well-off highs although the Russell made new all-time-highs, managing to hold onto the majority of gains while Treasuries bull flattened. The upside in both stocks and bonds was primarily a response to the market-friendly pick of Scott Bessent as US President-elect Trump’s Treasury Secretary. Bessent is seen as a fiscal conservative and has urged for a phased approach to the implementation of tariffs. The appointment drove the direction of trade with the Dollar initially selling off on the news, but the Dollar Index headed into overnight trading rather flat while the Euro and Swiss Franc outperformed on the pick and the downside in US Treasury yields. Stocks had initially rallied before being sold after the US cash equity open with downside in technology weighing, notably the 4% loss in NVIDI shares. Energy stocks lagged as crude prices slumped on reports that Israel and Lebanon are close to a ceasefire agreement, with reports suggesting a cease-fire for two months will be announced on Tuesday after the Israeli cabinet approves it. This also weighed on gold prices which saw the steepest losses since 2020 while the Canadian Dollar again underperformed in the FX space on the weaker oil prices. Looking ahead, the FOMC Minutes, Richmond Fed, and New Home Sales Units are due on Tuesday, but the focus lies on a busy Wednesday where we see Core PCE (Oct), GDP 2nd Est (Q3), Durable Goods (Oct) and weekly Initial Claims data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The FOMC Minutes will be released this evening at 7.00 pm but will likely be deemed as stale given recent data and commentary. Recent data saw in line CPI but hotter than expected PPI, with attention turning to the PCE data on Wednesday. Fed Chair Powell, after the two data points, said he projects October Core PCE at 2.8%, up from the 2.7% in September. Recent Fed speak has seen Chair Powell state data shows that the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut rates, while hawk Bowman has called for a cautious approach. Meanwhile, many others are keeping their options open, waiting for the data to determine the Fed’s decision-making process. The Minutes will be eyed to garner the Fed’s views on the balance of risks to the mandate in reference to the recent cooling of the labour market and the “bumpy” inflation readings. Focus will also be on clues for guidance, but it will likely show policymakers want to keep options open and make decisions meeting by meeting
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2666 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.30% higher at a price of 5987.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 440 points higher for a 0.99% gain at a price of 44,736.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.14% higher at a price of 20,804.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.06% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.3% higher at a price of 38,780.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.70% lower.
The Euro closed 0.86% higher at $1.0506.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2576.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2% closing at $154.12.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower 2.21%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points lower at 4.27%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower at 4.35%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.12% lower at $69.02 a barrel.
Gold closed 3.3% lower at $2626 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 2.00 pm we have the U.S. Housing Price Index. This is followed by Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a Five-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the FOMC Minutes at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as the market made a new intra-day high at 6021 before falling almost 60 Handles. This aggressive sell-off was met by strong buying helping the S&P to rally 30 Handles off its afternoon low into the close. The original sell-off saw my 6014-sell level triggered before selling off to my too tight 6001 T/P level and I am now flat. As I go to press this morning President Elect Trump has threatened both Canada and Mexico with a tariff of 25% causing the S&P to drop 20 Handles and the Dollar to rally. We have to get used to this increased two-way volatility now that Trump is elected. Older readers will remember that Trump was constantly talking about the economy on Twitter during his first term. This is great for us as it will bring plenty of two-way price action back into the market. The S&P has resistance from 6006/6024 where I will again be a seller with the same 6041 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5912/5928 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 5897 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5990. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5942.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
Given how oversold the Dollar is trading I am glad that my latest 107.60 average short position worked out as it helped to minimise Friday’s loss on the Index. The Dollar hit my 106.80 T/P level, and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 107.30/108.10 with a higher 108.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
The DAX is selling off as I go to post, following the American Indexes lower. I will now lower my DAX buy level to 19050/19150 with a lower 18975 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. This should come as no surprise given the massive rally since last Thursday. I will now raise my FTSE buy level to 8160/8230 with a higher 8095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the FTSE been short-term overbought I have no interest in selling the market at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8280.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully we are not short the Dow as the market rallied to a new high on Monday, closing at a price of 44736. The Dow has now rallied an incredible 3000 points since Trump was elected President on November 5. The Dow is again short-term overbought having risen 2% in the past two trading sessions. The Dow has short-term resistance from 45100/45400 where I will be a small seller with a 44605 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 43670/43920 with the same 43495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX missed my 20670 initial buy level by just 40 points before rallying over 100 points into the close. Despite NVIDIA closing lower by 4% the NDX held in which is no surprise ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 20480/20630 with the same 20395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund never came close to my buy range before following both the U.K Gilt Market and U.S Treasury Markets higher. With yields at 2.21% there is limited scope for a much larger rally in my opinion. The Bund has resistance from 134.30/135.10 where I will be a seller with a 136.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, my only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 131.50/132.20 with the same 130.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Wrong! Gold ended Monday’s session in New York with a hefty 3.31% loss. Anyone like me trying to buy the dip caught hit hard yesterday. Gold traded the whole of my buy range for a 2656 average long position before stopping me out at 2639 and I am still flat. Gold has further support below from 2575/2592 where I will be a small buyer with a lower 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2610.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from two weeks ago with a now lower 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning Silver is trading lower at 31.40 having hit a morning high at 32.00. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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