Despite a quiet session following the NASDAQ rebalancing, U.S. Equity Markets closed higher across the board. The Dow closing higher for the 11th consecutive trading day, led the gains, at +0.52%.The busiest week of the summer earnings season on Wall Street is here, with over 150 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report their quarterly results. The highlight of the week will be earnings announcements from tech giants Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META). Investors will be closely watching the earnings reports from these massive tech and growth stocks, which have been instrumental in driving the market higher this year. Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) are also set to report earnings today and tomorrow with investors keen to see how these telecom giants perform considering recent news about lead sheathed cables, which caused their stocks to drop sharply in early July. Overall, this busy week of earnings announcements will be closely watched by investors to gauge the performance and outlook of major corporations in various industries. Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s latest policy-setting meeting, where a rate hike is almost certain. The Fed had previously paused rate hikes in June after implementing the fastest monetary policy tightening cycle in over 40 years to address surging inflation. Analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) believe this upcoming hike may be the last in the current tightening cycle, but they expect the Fed to maintain a more hawkish stance than what the market is pricing in. The key question is how strongly Fed Chair Jerome Powell will signal a “careful pace” of tightening, which some interpret as implying rate hikes at every other meeting. The Federal Reserve’s willingness to tolerate higher inflation than preferred may be crucial for hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. European Markets closed higher. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on Thursday. However, there is uncertainty among market participants about the ECB’s plans for September, as opinions vary between the likelihood of another rate hike or a pause. While inflation in the Euro-Zone has eased since reaching a peak of 10.6% in December, it remains significantly above the ECB’s 2% target. The central bank has acknowledged that inflation is expected to remain elevated for a prolonged period and that more actions are necessary. In Asia, Investors are eagerly awaiting this week’s monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as there is ongoing speculation that policymakers might adjust their ultra-loose monetary stance due to elevated price pressures. Recent data showed that Japan’s core inflation remained above the central bank’s 2% target for the 15th consecutive month in June. However, an index that excludes energy costs showed a slowdown, suggesting that price pressures might have peaked. The general expectation is that the BOJ will maintain its current yield curve control and interest rates, possibly with a slight upgrade to its inflation outlook. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.40% while a stronger Dollar, saw Gold fall 0.2%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 62 points yesterday and is now down by 60 points for July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.40% higher at a price of 4554.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 180 points higher for a 0.52% gain at a price of 35,411.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.14% higher at a price of 15,448.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.09% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.14% higher at a price of 32,672.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.1064.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2837.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $141.48.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.41%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.25%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.84%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.4% higher at $78.74 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $1955.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey and ECB Bank Lending Survey at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Housing Price Index and Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 5-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday was a quiet session for the S&P. It was an incredibly boring session as Monday saw a ‘’Gap’’, quick ramp and then a slow drift chop all day. The 5 EMA again held while the NASDAQ 100 was relatively weak, but also held support. The S&P is close to making a new high for the year unless we start to see some evidence of a breakdown which we are currently not. Given how overbought all my technical signals are, I am trying to remain patient. I will continue to look to add to my 4505 short position at 4580. Meanwhile, I will leave my 4520-exit level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro fell 80 points yesterday on the weaker PMI data, hitting my 1.1060 initial buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1.1095 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1000 while leaving my 1.0935 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, UI will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar had a strong rally yesterday, and I am still flat. The Dollar has support from 100.10/100.70. I will now raise my buy level to this range with a higher 99.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Despite the awful Euro-Zone PMI data, the DAX rallied to my 16210-sell level before selling off to my revised 16148 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. The lower Bund Yields are telling us that a recession in Europe is imminent despite what the ECB President says. Today, I will again be a seller from 16270/16350 with a higher 16425 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE has resistance from 7790/7860 where I will be a seller with a 7915 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 7530/7610 with a higher 7475 ‘‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed higher for the 11h consecutive trading session. As far as I know the record for consecutive Dow gains is 13. The 14-Day RSI again closed at an even more overbought 74 while the ‘’Fear & Greed Index improved to a reading at 83 last night. All of the above is telling me to be short the Dow. I am still short at a price of 34236. I will continue to this trade at 35500 with a fixed 35705 stop. I will have a T/P level on this position at 35050. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I wrote at length about the rebalancing of the NDX in yesterday’s Daily Commentary. As a result, the big 10 stocks will no longer make up 62% of the Index and are now moved down to 50% so any downward impact from earnings this week will not be as hard it otherwise would have been. As it turned out the rebalance was a damp squib and I am still flat. I will continue to be a seller from 15550/15700 with the same 15805 ‘’Closing Stop’’ I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
September BUND
I am still flat. The Bund has support from 131.40/.132.20 where I will be a small buyer with a 130.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, my only interest in selling the Bund is still on a rally higher to 134.30/135.10 with the same 136.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
The stronger Dollar saw Gold have a small fall yesterday. I am still flat. As I am back long Silver, I will now lower my Gold buy level to 1927/1942 with a lower 1915 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1953.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 24.50 buy level. I am still long as I continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 23.80 with the same no stop. I will leave my 25.20 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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