U.S. Equity Markets closed lower for the fourth consecutive trading session following an extremely choppy market that witnessed plenty of two-way price action. Markets soared initially after Bond Guru Bill Ackman tweeted that he had covered his Bond short position. Despite Equity Markets closing lower, the VIX ended Monday with a 6% loss. The third-quarter earnings season continues this week as four more of the “Magnificent Seven” growth and technology stocks prepare to report. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google’s parent company, Alphabet (GOOGL), are scheduled for Tuesday. Meta Platforms (META) is set to release its earnings on Wednesday, while Amazon (AMZN) will report on Thursday. These mega-cap stocks have been the driving force behind much of the S&P 500’s gains this year, and any signs of slowing growth could potentially trigger a market pullback. Additionally, other notable companies such as Visa (V), Mastercard (MC), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), and ExxonMobil (XOM) are also slated to announce their earnings. This week, investors should keep a close eye on important economic data that will offer fresh insights into the state of the economy. On Thursday, we will receive the first look at the gross domestic product (“GDP”) for the third quarter. Economists are anticipating annualised growth of 4.1%, driven by increased consumer spending. However, most experts believe this will mark the conclusion of a period of significant growth, with expectations of a transition to a low-growth outlook for the next few quarters. To round off the week, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is scheduled to be released on Friday, showing a 3.7% annualised increase in prices. The European Central Bank is set to convene for its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday. It is widely anticipated that the bank will put a halt to rate hikes for the first time in 15 months, spanning over 10 meetings. Investors should closely monitor the guidance provided by ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding the expected duration of high rates, especially in light of the recent surge in bond yields. Elsewhere, the market’s focus will remain on the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on oil prices. The volatility in the region and the potential for escalation continue to create unease among investors and analysts. The Bond Market will also be a critical sector to monitor, especially after the 10-year Treasury yield crossed the 5% threshold for the first time since 2007 last week. All of these factors have led to increasing uncertainty on Wall Street, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closing at its highest level in nearly seven months last Friday. Momentum toward safe-haven assets such as the Dollar, Gold, and Bonds will be something to watch in the coming weeks. European Markets closed lower following another volatile trading session. Elsewhere, Oil fell 2.94% while a weaker Dollar saw Gold end Monday with a further gain of 1.5%.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 33 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2504 points for October after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 4217.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 191 points lower for a 0.58% loss at a price of 32,936.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.30% higher at a price of 14,604.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.11% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.83% lower at a price of 30.999.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.43% lower.
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.0669.
The British Pound closed 0.7% higher at 122.48.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $149.76.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.86%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 4.60%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.84%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.79% lower at $88.66 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% higher at $1949.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence and U.K. Unemployment when both will be released at 7.00 am. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Servies PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. Finally, we have the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm and a two-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Incredible two-way volatility as the S&P made an early afternoon low at 4189 before surging to a rebound high at 4256. A late sell-off saw the S&P close below its 200 Day Moving Average again at a price of 4217. My S&P plan worked well as the market sold off to my 4209 average buy level before rallying to my 4226 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The past two weeks have seen the VIX hit a seven-month high as investors are spooked by 10-year Treasuries hitting at 17-year high above 5% while the breakout of war in Gazza is adding to the tricky environment. No matter what the news the S&P continues to be bought on dips. I still maintain the November will see a bullish stance and it is why I continue to be a strong buyer on any sell-offs. There is no chance that a Central Bank can raise interest rates in this environment. Bill Ackman cutting his short Bond position yesterday, saw the 10-Year close at 4.84% – 17 basis points below Friday’s high. The surge in the Euro over the past two sessions is another reason not to be short. The S&P has support from 4187/4207 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with a 4175 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
Frustratingly the Euro missed my initial 1.0550 buy level by 20 points before having a nice 100-point rally into the New York close. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0550/1.0620 with a higher 1.0485 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
Unfortunately, the Dollar hit a high at 106.57 just missing my 106.60 sell level before falling 100 points and I am still flat. I will now lower my Dollar sell level to 106.10/106.70 with a lower 107.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX traded heavy for all of Monday’s session. The initial sell-off saw the market hit my second buy level at 14750 for a 14795 average long position. As I wanted to reduce the number of ‘’Open Positions’’ I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 14820 and I am still flat. The DAX has support below from 14600/14680 where I will again be a buyer with a wider 14495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the weak price action, I still do not want to be short.
Cash FTSE
After the FTSE hit my 7350 buy level we had a small bounce enabling me to cover this position at my revised 7378 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 7250/7320 with a lower 7195 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! A late sell-off saw my 33325 average long Dow position stopped at 33055 and I am still flat. I am surprised how weak the Dow is trading given the fall in both the Dollar and Bond yields yesterday. This move lower saw the 14-Day RSI close at 33. The McClellan Oscillator closed at -153 last night and is only one more down day from generating a buy signal. Adding to the gloom is the ‘’Fear & Greed Index which closed at 27. These signals will soon all set up a nice buy signal which would be no surprise given the seasonally bullish November begins next Wednesday. This morning the Dow is trading lower at 32980. We have support from 32750/32900 where I will again be a buyer with a 32595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 33150. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX had a wild session on Monday, hitting an early afternoon low at 14420 before rallying to a rebound high at 14752. This move higher saw my 14750 T/P level triggered on my 14670 average long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again at 14720. I am still long and I will add to this position at 14570 with the same 14495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level at 14850 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change., I am still long from last week at an average rate of 128.70 with the same 127.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 129.05. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Gold surged last week, trading $150 higher from where we were 10 days ago. This is a massive move on Geo-political risk. I am still flat Gold, and I am going to stay this way as I certainly have no interest in being long the market at these prices. The price action is telling you not to be short. Once the price of Gold settles in a new range I will be back with a new update.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from five weeks ago at 24.05. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading lower at 23.02. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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