U.S. Equity Markets got the new week off to a positive start led by the 1.65% gain in the NASDAQ 100. Despite Bond yields hitting new highs for the year tech stocks were strong all-day. Investors are gearing up for the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this week, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell’s speech, scheduled for Friday, is expected to offer valuable insights into the central bank’s outlook for the remaining quarter of the year and into 2024. The Federal Reserve recently adopted a hawkish stance on future rate hikes, signalling further room for rate hikes. Any deviation from this stance in Powell’s speech could boost bond markets, as it may indicate another pause or end to interest rate increases. Following last week’s mixed earnings results from the retail sector, investors are awaiting further insights into consumer spending behaviour and sentiment with major retailers reporting. Earnings reports from BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), Lowe’s (LOW), Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are scheduled for this week. Additionally, Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow after the close. The chipmaker has stood out in the tech sector due to strong performance, largely driven by advancements in artificial intelligence. European Markets closed mixed. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the U.K. and Euro-Zone will be of critical focus for investors this week, given the ongoing economic struggles in Europe. High prices and low economic output, coupled with a decline in demand, have resulted in a significant slump in economic activity. The service sector, which traditionally absorbs contractions in the manufacturing sector, is also feeling the pinch. If the PMI data indicates a further decline, it could lead to calls for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to halt their planned rate hikes. Overall, the economic calendar is fairly sparse this week. However, investors should also be paying attention to a few trends that we have seen gain momentum over the last few weeks. Up first, expectations continue to grow that China will make a significant cut to its loan prime rate which would lower mortgage rates for a struggling real estate sector. Next, a resurgence in gas prices could pose as a serious headwind to a further reduction in headline inflation heading into the fall. The U.S. national average price for a gallon of gasoline is currently $3.87, 31 cents higher than last month and only six cents below prices this time a year ago. Lastly, the recent decline in the Nasdaq Composite, marking its third consecutive weekly fall, suggests a possible shift in investor sentiment towards the tech sector. The once ‘invincible’ tech rally appears to be losing steam, which may be attributable to concerns over a potential soft-landing in the economy. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.8% while Gold again closed below $1900, despite closing higher by 0.5%.
To mark my 2850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 145 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1418 points for August following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.69% higher at a price of 4399.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points lower for a 0.11% loss at a price of 34,463.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.65% lower at a price of 14,936.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.06% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.37% higher at a price of 31,565.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0894.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 127.56.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5% closing at $146.20.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.70%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 4.73%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points higher at 4.34%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.80% lower at $80.12 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1895.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Goolsbee and Bowman at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed strong yesterday helped by the 1.65% gain in the NDX. Despite the late rally into the close, the S&P still failed to break the Daily 5 EMA. Internals were negative throughout yesterday’s session as it was left to tech stocks to lead the way. $BPSPX is still on the floor while the $NYSI reading this evening should show a reading of max oversold. With Apple RSI still on a buy signal there is now way that I am going to be short here. We have Nvidia Earnings tomorrow after the close and of course Powell’s key speech on Friday. The S&P needs to break back above its 50-Day Moving Average at 4455 for the bulls to regain control. This is a long way from current pricing. I am still flat the S&P as the market just missed yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 4362/4377 with a higher 4359 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The boring action in the Euro continues. I am still long at 1.0970 with the same 1.0875 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1000. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
No Change. I am still flat as the Dollar again traded in a narrow range. I will continue to be a seller from 103.70/104.30 with the same 104.81 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX fell shy of my buy range before having a small rally into the European Close. I will not chase the market higher leaving my 15400/15500 aggressive buy level unchanged with the same higher 15315 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat. The FTSE traded in a narrow range despite Gilt Yields making new highs for the year. The FTSE is oversold. We have support from 7150/7210 where I will be a strong buyer with a 7085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how oversold the FTSE is trading I have no interest in being short.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market reversed earlier losses to hit my 34295-buy level. As I wanted to bank some points for today, I exited this long position at my revised 34380 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow needs to get back above its 50 Day Moving Average to give Bulls more comfort. Given how oversold my technicals are at this time I have no interest in pressing the downside. Today, I will again be a buyer from 34050/34250 with a lower 33795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 34440.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX had a nice rally yesterday. I am still long at an average rate of 15085 with the same 15170 T/P level. As long as my tech signals are on a buy I will not be a seller of this market or have any stop. I am impressed with the fact that tech stocks were able to rally against a backup of 10 Year Treasury Yields to 4.35%. The bottom line is still the potential for a big rally despite the potential bear flag in both the NDX and S&P. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
Every rally in the Bund brings strong selling. Yesterday’s move lower has me long at 130.70 with a now lower 131.30 T/P level. I will add to this position at 130.00 with a now lower 129.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to struggle, hitting morning high at 1898 before having as a small sell-off. As I am long the Euro and Silver, I exited my 1886 latest long Gold position at my revised 1892 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has further support from 1862/1877 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 1849 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver had a nice 1.5% rally since I marked prices 24 hours ago, trading at 23.35 as I go to press. I am still long at an average rate of 24.20 with the same 24.70 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop on this position. If this view changes I will email my Platinum Members.
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