U.S. Equity Markets surged on Friday as the S&P had its best day since January closing higher by 1.96%. Meanwhile better tech earnings saw the NASDAQ 100 end the day with a gain of 3%. After a volatile session yesterday Equity Markets closed mainly unchanged. Amazon reported a renewed surge in sales growth as the e-commerce giant rebounded from a post-pandemic dip in sales. The online-retail behemoth’s recent efforts to cut costs and shut down unprofitable initiatives seem to have worked – quarterly profit came in far above expectations at $3.2 billion. However, the tech giant warned that cloud revenue is likely to see a dip moving forward. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both posted earnings that beat analyst estimates, showing resilience in the face of declining oil and gas prices. Comcast beat analyst estimates for its first-quarter revenue and earnings – despite advertising revenue and broadband subscribers having taken sizable hits compared with the prior year. The surge in Equity Markets came against a background of stagflation. Economic growth has slowed even further, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ first-quarter GDP data. Americans could easily be facing stagflation – a period of low economic growth and high inflation – for the first time in generations. In its largest drop since September 2022, the National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales fell 5.2% in March. The housing market may not be in the clear just yet, as mortgage rates have recently rebounded and seasonal demand may begin to taper off. European Markets closed higher. The Bank of England’s executive director for financial stability, Sarah Breeden, cautioned that U.K. companies may face undue market risk following the shift from bank lending to market financing. If investor sentiment dampens, these companies could be overly exposed to downside risk. In Asia, The Bank of Japan, led by new Governor Kazuo Ueda, kept ultra-low interest rates unchanged but pledged to hold a more liberal view of monetary policy changes in the future. This saw the Yen fall over 1.6% versus the U.S. Dollar. Taiwan’s economy plunged into recession territory as GDP contracted 3% in the first quarter – the largest drawdown in economic activity since the global financial crisis. Declines in global demand for semiconductors proved to be a major factor. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.46% lower while after a volatile session Gold rose 0.1%.
To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 796 points yesterday on the first trading session for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.04 lower at a price of 4167.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points lower for a 0.14% loss at a price of 34,051.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.11% lower at a price of 13,221.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.60% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.40% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.12% higher at a price of 29,157.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0975.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2498.
The Japanese Yen fell 1.6% closing at $136.10.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 15 basis points lower at 2.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 3.71%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 3.55%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.46% lower at $75.66 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $1985.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which fell 2.4% versus +0.4% expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone ECB Bank Lending Survey and Money Supply at 9.00 am, followed by CPI at 10.00 am. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S. JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders.
Cash S&P 500
One bad economic report after another as I reported above. It does not matter as the S&P took how my key 4173 resistance level and now has 4200 in its sights. The VIX has a 15 Handle which is insane when you see what this week has in store. We have tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting where a 25-basis rate hike is priced in, Apple earnings on Thursday and Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. Friday’s 3% rally in the NDX saw nine slow down days completely erased in one session. With the $NYSI also guaranteed to print max overbought when it reports this evening I just cannot be a buyer of markets at these prices especially as we are now in one of the seasonally weakest months’ of the year. On Friday the S&P hit my 4115-buy level before rallying over 70 Handles. Yet again short positions have been obliterated. This move higher saw my 4127 revised T/P level triggered. Subsequently the S&P hit my 4158-sell level before thankfully trading lower to my 4142 T/P level. The S&P went vertical into the close and again yesterday, hitting my next sell level at 4180. A nice sell-off into the close saw this positioned hit my 4162 T/P level and I am now flat. Given the volatility I cannot emphasise enough the value of my Platinum Service. Yesterday I sent three updated emails to my Platinum Members. Every new high has been made on negative divergence. Slower lending is usually followed by weaker corporate growth which makes no sense to have the VIX at multi month lows. Microsoft is jammed overbought, trading well outside the top of its daily Bollinger Band. Microsoft alone is responsible for 17.62% of the S&P’s rally this year. Apple is responsible for 21.27% of the S&P rally. Two stocks responsible for 39% of the 2023 gains. Small Businesses are not optimistic with Business Optimism back at the 2008 Global Financial Crisis levels. point rate increase is practically guaranteed. We have earnings from Apple on Thursday and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. It promises to be an interesting week. Today, I will again be a seller of the S&P on any further rally to 4175/4195 with the same 4211 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 4130/4145 where I will be a small buyer with a 4119 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro missed my 1.1050 T/P level, hitting a 1.1045 high print before getting slammed yesterday. With equity markets at 2023 recovery highs it makes no sense to have a stronger Dollar. I am still long at 1.1000. I will continue to add to this position at 1.0940 while leaving my 1.0895 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1030.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to Friday’s buy range. The Yen falling 1.6% since Friday morning sees the Dollar trading higher by 0.9%. The Dollar has resistance from 102.60/103.40 where I will be a small seller with a 104.05 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Despite Retail Sales falling 2.4% the DAX still cannot fall. It is incredible as every weak data point is ignored while Bund Yields are trading 8 basis points higher this morning. I am glad I stayed flat the DAX over the long weekend. I certainly would not have been long the market. The DAX has resistance from 16030/16110 where I will be a small seller with a 16195 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE missed Friday’s 7780 by 10 points before following the American Indexes higher. I will now raise my buy level to 7760/7840 with a higher 7695 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The beauty of my Platinum Service is my updated emails. On Friday when both the Dow and NDX were surging I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their Dow sell level to 34180. This price was hit yesterday afternoon. We finally saw a small sell-off into the close and again this morning enabling me to cover this position at my 34015 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Internals are atrocious and deteriorating which is another warning sign as we wait for the FOMC Statement tomorrow evening. Today, I will be a seller of the Dow from 34200/34450 with a 34605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how overvalued the Dow is trading I do not want to be long the market at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Friday’s 3% rally in the NDX saw the market hit my 13280-sell level. Yesterday morning we had a small sell-off enabling me to cover this position at my revised 13224 T/P level and I am now flat. According to the bulls nothing matters as all three American Indexes just fly higher. There is something to be said for that because nothing has mattered. Nothing. One bank after the other biting the dust including the second largest bank failure in history – First Republic over the weekend. Good news from three Tech companies drove the NDX to the moon on Friday while the rest of the market is stagnant to lower. Given these three stocks made new highs or recovery highs on negative divergence I am sticking with my plan of selling the rips. The NDX has resistance from 13300/13450 where I will be a seller with a 13505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has short-term support from 12900/13050 where I will be a small buyer with a 12795 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June BUND
Weaker German GDP and lower inflation saw the Bund rally 200 points on Friday. This move higher saw my 134.85 T/P level executed on my latest 134.40 long position and I am now flat. This morning the Bund is trading 90 points lower at 134.60. We have support from 133.50/134.20 where I will again be a buyer with a 132.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
A wild session for Gold yesterday, hitting an afternoon high at 2015 before aggressive selling sees Gold trading at 1983 this morning. Today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1953/1968 with the same 1941 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver had a wild session yesterday, trading to a high at 25.92 before falling 100 points. This move higher saw my 25.60 T/P level triggered on my 24.90 long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy Silver again which I did at a price of 25.10. I will add to this trade at 24.40. I will have a T/P level on this position at 26.10 with a 23.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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