U.S. Equity Markets rose across the board on Monday as traders unwound the Geo-political Hedges taken on Friday. Despite higher Treasury Yields, the NASDAQ led yesterday’s gains closing higher by 1.18%. The move higher helped the VIX to reverse most of Friday’s spike, closing lower by 11%. The third-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week with Tesla (TSLA) being the first among the “Magnificent Seven” growth and technology stocks to report its results on Wednesday. Last Friday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) reported strong quarterly profits as higher rates boosted interest income for the banks. Financial sector earnings continue this week with Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and several regional banks reporting. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Proctor & Gamble (PG) are also scheduled to release earnings which should give investors insight into the latest consumer spending habits. This week, investors can expect updates from several key economic indicators in the U.S. Retail sales data for September set to be released this afternoon is anticipated to show a 0.2% increase – a sizable slowdown in consumer spending after July and August reported growth of 0.5% and 0.6%. Reports on building permits, housing starts, and the NAHB Housing Market Index are also set to be released and will provide investors with an update on the health of the housing sector. Additionally, reports on regional manufacturing activity are expected to show continued sluggishness at the core if the economy. Over the past couple of weeks oil has seen surges of plus and minus seven-plus percent. The growing threat of a potential expansion of the Middle East conflict between Israel and several terrorist organisations has investors worried. Another factor driving the price increase was a recent move by the U.S. on Thursday, imposing sanctions on individuals who own tankers transporting Russian oil above the Group of Seven’s set price cap of $60 per barrel. The growing uncertainty around Russian and Middle Eastern oil supply is something to watch over the next few weeks. Elsewhere, market focus will centre on key economic updates abroad and central bank speakers. On Wednesday, attention shift to China as economic data is awaited to gauge the state of the country’s recovery, especially amidst concerns about its property sector crisis and potential stimulus measures by Beijing. European Markets closed higher. In the U.K., eyes turn to September’s inflation figures which will precede the Bank of England’s November policy meeting. Stateside, Thursday brings anticipation for insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his address to the Economic Club of New York. Additionally, various regional Fed presidents alongside Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller, are set to deliver speeches throughout the week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.24% lower on Monday while Gold fell 0.8% following a volatile trading session that saw plenty of two-way price action.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 197 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2356 points for October after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.06% higher at a price of 4373.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 314 points higher for a 0.93% gain at a price of 33,984.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.18% higher at a price of 15,172.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.03% lower at a price of 31,659.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.37% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0557.
The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 122.05.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $149.63.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.79%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 4.48%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points higher at 4.71%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.24% lower at $86.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% lower at $1918.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Average Earnings at 7.00 am followed by German and Euro-Zone ZEW Surveys at 10.00 am. Next, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 1.00 pm and Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 2.20 pm while Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Friday’s aggressive sell-off was reversed on Monday as yet again Bears have not been able to break key support levels. As a result of yesterday’s move higher the S&P continues to underperform the NDX as the market again failed to close above its 50-Day Moving Average at 4402. Given the political back drop it is unlikely the Fed will increase Interest Rates even though Inflation came in higher-than-expected last week. November is traditionally one of the strongest months of the year so Bears basically have two weeks left in October to get a move lower. It seems only a matter of time before the S&P breaks higher given the fact that we are trading 170 Handles higher than the 4201 low print made 10 days ago. I am still flat the S&P as the market just surged after I posted early yesterday morning. The S&P has support from 4340/4355. I will now raise my buy level to this area where I will be a small buyer with a 4329 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the S&P having massive resistance from 4400/4420 I have no interest in putting on a short position.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied yesterday, enabling me to cover my latest 1.0525 long position at my revised 1.0557 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0450/1.0520 with a now lower 1.0395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September Dollar Index
The sell-off in the Dollar saw the market trade lower to my revised 106.25 T/P level on last week’s 106.60 short position. I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance from 106.70/107.30 where I will again be a seller with the same 107.75 higher ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 15040/15120 with a higher 14935 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat as the FTSE continues to ignore the volatility in both the DAX and American Indexes. I will now raise my buy level to 7500/7570 with a higher 7435 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow rallied almost 400 points yesterday and I am still flat. This move higher was the first time in six weeks that the Dow has been able to close over its 200-Day Moving Average (33822). This could be significant as four times in the past week we have seen strong selling at this key pivot point. I will now raise my Dow buy level to 33500/33750 with a tight 33395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My latest 15050 long NDX position worked well as the market rallied to my 15180 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again at 15140. I am still long with a 15250 T/P level. I will add to this position at 15030 with a now higher 14895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Plenty of two-way price action in the Bund over the past week. Yesterday’s move lower saw the Bund hit my 129.05 buy level. I am still long, and I will add to this position at 128.35 with a now lower 127.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level at 129.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold. The market performed well as Gold hung on to most of Friday’s aggressive 3% move higher. Gold has support from 1880/1895 where I will be a small buyer with an 1869 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from five weeks ago at 24.05. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading slightly lower at 22.59. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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