U.S. Markets closed higher led by the 1.60% gain in the NDX. These gains came despite higher Bond Yields as attention turns to this afternoon’s CPI release. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said that price stability is still too far away and that further tightening of monetary policy will be necessary. January’s Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged from last month. Meanwhile, year-ahead housing prices’ expectations fell, while gas and food price forecasts both increased. Within the S&P 500 Index, 10 of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets also closed higher. A European Central Bank study released yesterday showed that rapid growth in Euro-Zone inflation will ultimately end up weighing on public finances over time. European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said it will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in March, but it is still unclear if that will happen in May. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors’ January report showed property sales and house prices in the United Kingdom continued to decline, while new buyer demand and listings were down. In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to nominate Kazuo Ueda, an easy-money policy proponent, as the next Bank of Japan governor later this week. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government’s upcoming budget proposal will focus on bringing down inflation growth, including assistance with power bills. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.59% lower while Gold was heavy, closing lower by 0.53%.
To mark my 2700th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1714 points for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.14% higher at a price of 4137
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 376 points higher for a 1.11% gain at a price of 34,245.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.60% higher at a price of 12,502.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.90% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.8%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.64% higher at a price of 27,602.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0718.
The British Pound closed 0.6% higher at 1.2130.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $132.55.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.38%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 3.41%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.73%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.59% lower at $79.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.53% lower at $1854.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. January Payrolls rose 0.3% while the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 3.7%. Next, we have Euro-Zone GDP and Unemployment.at 10.00 am, followed by U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. At 1.30 pm we have CPI. Finally, at 7.05 pm we have a speech from Fed Member Williams.
Cash S&P 500
Just when I expected the S&P to have a quiet session, comments from some key Bank Analysts that the Bear Market was over saw the S&P rally from the off, closing higher by 1.14%. The S&P has now reversed most of last week’s losses as attention turns to this afternoon’s CPI release. This is a binary data where there is no point in guessing the outcome. Looking at the 2 hour chart I note that so far in 2023 we have not seen a single oversold reading. No wonder the bears are scratching their heads. However, for the next leg of the recovery to gather pace we need to break and close over the key resistance at 4215/4230. This is where the Monthly 20 MA and Weekly 100 MA come in. As a result I will be a strong seller in this range with a wider 4251 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support from 4087/4102 where I will be a small buyer with a 4073 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If the CPI comes in much stronger than expected, I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 4020/4040 with no stop or T/P level for now as I want to give this trade some room on any test.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.0660 long Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.0710 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro has strong support from 1.0610/1.0680 where I will again be a buyer with the same 1.0545 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market again traded in a narrow range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 102.10/102.70 with the same 101.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The price action continues to see strong buying on any dip. Despite the DAX being extremely overbought there is no point in trying to go short. For me to turn bearish I need the DAX to break and close below 15,000 for two consecutive trading sessions. The DAX has short-term support from 15160/15240. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 15085 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE closed at another new all-time high as the market looks to break the next key 8000 resistance level. I am still flat as the market again missed my buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 7835/7905 with a tight 7775 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow missed yesterday’s buy range by 80 points before rallying over 500 points off its 33730-morning low. The Dow has struggled above 34200 so far in 2023. Ahead of CPI, I will now raise my sell range to 34450/34700 with a tight 34855 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my buy level to 33750/34000 with a higher 33595 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX had a nice 1.5% rally yesterday. This move higher came despite rising Bond Yields. As a result my 12480 T/P level was filled and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a strong buyer from 12200/12350 with a wider 11995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
March BUND
It took a while but finally the Bund rallied to my 136.50 T/P level this morning on last week’s 136.10 long position and I am now flat. The Bund has support from 135.10/135.80. I will be an aggressive buyer on any dip to this area with a lower 134.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. Gold has support below from 1828/1843 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 1817 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver has traded sideways since we saw the market fall 3% on Thursday. I am still convinced that it is only a matter of time before Silver takes out the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area. Remember in May 2011, Silver was trading above $50. I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 with the same no stop policy. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 23.50. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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