U.S. Equity Markets rebounded yesterday led by the upgrade in Telsa Shares. The NASDAQ 100 led Monday’s gains, closing higher by 1.2%. Today and tomorrow are key days for trading this week. We have the Apple news event later this afternoon, where it is expected to unveil its latest line of products. The unveiling of the iPhone 15 will be under a magnifying glass, especially in light of China’s recent restrictions on state-related entities using iPhones. This development has posed a considerable challenge to Apple, given China’s status as a major market. The other key event is the upcoming inflation report for August is set to be announced tomorrow afternoon. The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) is projected to increase by 0.4% from July, marking what could be the fastest monthly rise since January. The headline inflation rate is also expected to climb for the second consecutive month to 3.4% year-on-year. This increase is largely attributed to the rising costs of energy and oil, which are reversing the broader downward trend observed throughout this year. Despite the volatility in food and energy sectors posing hurdles for a further reduction in headline inflation, the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is predicted to register its smallest annual increase in two years, at 4.3%. Should these projections hold true, they would likely affirm the Federal Reserve officials’ existing stance on interest rate plans. In addition to inflation data, the Federal Reserve will be paying close attention to several other forthcoming economic indicators. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, a key barometer of the health of small businesses in the U.S., could provide insights into the state of domestic economic growth. Meanwhile, Retail Sales Data serves as a critical measure of consumer confidence and spending trends. Similarly, data on Industrial and Manufacturing Production will give a snapshot of the health of the broader economy, including how supply chain disruptions and labour shortages may be impacting output. If these indicators suggest a stalling or slowing in economic activity, it might cause the Fed to reconsider its stance on interest rate hikes, potentially opting for a pause to support economic recovery. European Markets closed higher. The European Central Bank (“ECB”) finds itself in a tough position as it prepares for its upcoming monetary policy meeting. An unstable economic outlook coupled with persistent inflation has put the ECB in a tough spot. The bank is anticipated to halt its interest rate hikes, following a string of nine consecutive increases over the past year. Further rate hikes could potentially worsen the economic condition, but the failure to permanently de-anchor high inflation is deemed riskier by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.45% while Gold ended Monday’s session in New York with a 0.2% gain.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 201 points for September, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.67% higher at a price of 4487.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 87 points higher for a 0.25% gain at a price of 34,663.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.19% higher at a price of 15,461.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.33% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.95% higher at a price of 32,776.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.42% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0747.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 125.08.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.9% closing at $146.55.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.63%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.44%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.29%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.45% lower at $87.41 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1923.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K Employment Change which came in at -1K versus +97K Previously. Also released was German Wholesale Prices which rose 0.2% versus -0.2% expected. Next, we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am, followed by the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index. Finally, we have the 10-Year Treasury Note Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed 30 Handles higher yesterday from Friday’s close. In the process the 50-Day MA at 4480 was regained, closing at 4487. With the $NYSI near max oversold it is very difficult to make a bearish case despite the recent 7% fall in Apple shares. In recent years there have been three prior instances when the $NYSI was this oversold in August. In 2018, we went on to make new highs before a Q4 correction. In 2019, it drove into the Weekly 25MA/Daily 150 MA and then rallied higher, while in 2021 it too rallied higher first before a late September/October pullback into the Weekly 25 MA. Today, that level comes in at 4311. The 2021 scenario sits well with the Seasonality Chart and any sell-off to this key support will see me go aggressively long. The point is none of these examples in the $NYSI suggest a short S&P position in the here and now. Perhaps once the $NYSI has spiked for the next two weeks then we can re-visit. Yesterday’s move higher saw my 4485 T/P level triggered on my 4479 average long position from last week and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 4455/4470 with a 4443 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has an ‘’Open Gap’’ at 4496 which may attract some selling. I have no interest in being short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro has closed lower for eight consecutive weeks. This is extreme resulting in the Daily Sentiment Index is single digits. History tells that every time the DSI has such a reading it is not long before a rally ensues. I am still flat the Euro as the Market just missed Friday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0640/1.0710 with a higher 1.0585 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar at 104.70. I will continue to look to add to this position at 105.30 with the same 105.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 104.35. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash DAX
No matter what the news the DAX continues to hold in. The last two weeks saw the DAX tag its 200 Day Moving Average and its 150 MA with each test holding. The DAX has been choppy since February, and we are right back at that mid-point at 15800. Although the DAX has had a series of lower highs, one large rally from here will see the DAX break out to the upside. Remember this is all playing out against a German Economy that is close to recession. I am still flat the DAX. I will now raise my buy level to 15660/15740 with a higher 15585 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as shortly after I posted yesterday morning the market traded higher to my 7550-sell level before trading lower to my 7510 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE hit a low at 7470 before a late rally sees the FTSE trading at 7520 this morning. The FTSE has resistance from 7570/7630 where I will again be a seller with the same 7675 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
No change. The Dow is the only Index to still trade below its 50 Day Moving Average (34795). If the Dow can regain this key resistance level, then all three American Indexes can defy the ongoing scientism and rally hard. I am still flat. Given the recent strength of both the Dollar and Treasury Yields it is impressive how well the Dow has performed. The Dow has strong support from 34100/34350 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 33995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Tesla being upgraded saw the NDX surge 1.2% yesterday, with yesterday’s move higher seeing the NDX closing comfortably above its 50 Day Moving Average (15295). This level should act as strong support in the event that Apple disappoints at its latest iPhone launch this afternoon. Therefore, I will be a strong buyer from 15200/15350 with a higher 15095 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund again traded in a narrow range. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to129.60/130.40 with the same 128.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 131.00.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. The volatility in Gold over the past few months has been dreadful, making it hard to make points. I am still flat, refusing to chase Gold higher given the large selling on any move above 1960. I will continue to be a buyer from 1895/1910 with the same 1883 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 24.05. Silver is trading lower at 23.10 this morning. Buying the dip has worked almost every time in Silver over the past two years. However, just like Gold finding strong resistance from 1960/2000, Silver is seeing a lot of selling between 24.00 and 25.00. I will now lower my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to 21.95. If Silver drops from here, I will come back with a new level to add to my existing long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments