A stronger Dollar saw U.S. Equity Markets close lower yesterday, led by the 2.19% loss in the NASDAQ 100. Uncertainty surrounding inflation growth spurned the recent sell-off in American Indexes. The Bureau of Labour Statistics releases June’s Consumer Price Index tomorrow and Producer Price Index data on Thursday with markets extremely nervous ahead of these key releases. Wall Street’s unsure as to whether the growth metrics are going to back off or remain hot… But based on recent commentary from Federal Reserve governors like Christopher Wall, Loretta Mester, and James Bullard, we should not hold our breath for any let-up… You see, these three policymakers have called for another 0.75% interest-rate increase in July. They had also supported the 0.5% rate hike in May. So institutional money managers are worried upcoming policy changes would cool the outlook for borrowing and spending. Within the S&P 500, nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed lower. Markets fell on interest-rate hike worries. Over the weekend, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said the bank must be more aggressive in its monetary policies. He called for rates to increase by as much as 1.25% over the upcoming meetings in July and September… a significant jump from the 0.5% increase that investors are expecting. This potential steep hike means risk assets may not be appropriately pricing all of the bad news. In Asia, Markets fell, driven by growing concerns about more COVID-19 lockdowns in China. New cases were recorded in Shanghai, the country’s financial and manufacturing hub. Furthermore, Macau shuttered all casinos over the next week in an effort to quell the spread of COVID-19. Investors are worried lockdowns could exacerbate supply-chain delays, stoking inflation even further. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.15% while Copper fell 3% on growth concerns.
To mark my 2575th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 205 points yesterday and is now ahead by 785 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3371 points June, while making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.15% lower at a price of 3854.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 164 points lower for a 0.52% loss at a price of 31,173.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.19% lower at a price of 11,860.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.79% lower at a price of 26,333.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% higher.
The Euro closed 1.3% lower at $1.0053.
The British Pound closed 0.9% lower at 1.1890.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7% closing at $137.25.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points lower at 1.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 2.18%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points higher at 2.96%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.15% lower at $103.23 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.61% lower at $1730.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism at 11.00 am. Finally, we have a 10-year Treasury Note Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The relentless rally in the U.S Dollar which has hit a new 22-year high this morning above 108 saw the S&P get hit hard over the past 24 hours. Yesterday’s sell-off saw the S&P close below both its Weekly and Daily 5 EMA as markets focus on tomorrow’s CPI. The anticipation about CPI is huge, but also the expectation that whatever the print is, it may well be regarded as in the rearview mirror perhaps suggesting that any shock number will end up getting bought, especially with the view that PPI is more likely to show significant relief. Lower highs suggests risk remains lower but signal charts are still telling me not to be short the S&P with the hope that a ferocious rally can start at any time just like the mini-melt-up we had in the last two weeks of March. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3850 buy level before having a nice 30-Handle rally, enabling me to cover this position at my 3861 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will be a buyer on any further sip to 3795/3815 with a 3779 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Yesterday’s aggressive sell-off in the Euro saw the market trade the whole of my buy range for a now 100.55 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 101.20 while leaving my 99.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
March Dollar Index
Wrong!. Overnight, I was stopped out of my latest 107.20 short position at 108.15 and I am now flat. The Dollar is severely overbought with a Daily Sentiment Index reading at 92. The Dollar has further resistance from 108.40/109.10 where I will again be a seller with a 109.75 stop.
Cash DAX
This morning the DAX is opening 150 points lower on the back of the weaker Euro. I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 12580/12650 with a wider 12495 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12720.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE was the strongest of the Indexes yesterday and I am still flat as the market never came to close to my buy range. I am not going to chase the FTSE higher, leaving my 7020/7070 buy level unchanged with the same 6955 wider stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My latest, 31070 long Dow position worked well with the market rallying to an afternoon high at 31365. This move higher enabled me to cover my long position at 31200 and I am still flat. Despite the aggressive sell-off since Friday, the McClellan Oscillator still closed with a positive reading of 18 last night. Sentiment is still on the floor as shown by the ‘’Fear & Greed ‘’ Index which only fell slightly, closing at 27 which is still a reading of ‘’Fear’’. This morning the Dow is trading lower at 31000. We have strong support from 30550/30850 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 30395 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX broke a six-day winning streak by closing 2.19% lower yesterday on a day where we again saw low trading volumes. This move lower saw the NDX trade the whole of my second buy range for a now 11840 average long position. I will leave my stop on this portion unchanged at 11695 while lowering my T/P level to 11950. Lower Treasury Yields should support the NDX in Q3 and is the main reason why I continue to hold my April long position at 14327. I will leave my exit level unchanged at 12900 on this position.
September BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to my buy range before rallying over 100 points on weaker Equity Markets. I will now raise my sell level to 152.35/153.05 with a higher 153.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold sold off to my 1725 buy level overnight before rallying $10. This move higher enabled me to cover this position at my revised 1729 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1695/1710 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1683 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long at 19.40 with the same 20.10 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 18.35 stop unchanged.
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