Ten-Year Treasuries rising to a three-year high saw U.S. Equity Markets close lower led again by the NASDAQ 100 which started the week with another loss of 2.35%. Money Managers and traders are concerned about the future policy implications ahead of this afternoon’s key Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) release from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics – which will offer a look into the latest inflation readings that are likely to show accelerating costs. Meanwhile, rising bond yields are weighing on growth stocks like Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT), as yields hit three-year highs and major equities received downgrades. Oil investors in the U.S. and around the world are also becoming increasingly concerned about demand. The lack of activity in China due to ongoing lockdowns is boosting fears within the oil market, as China is the world’s largest importer – accounting for 25% of all global demand. So, if the restrictions continue for a prolonged period, it may lead to reduced consumption and an increase in overall supply. Within the S&P 500, all 11 of the sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. The European Central Bank will announce its latest policy update later this week, with investors paying close attention to updates on the timing of interest rates. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to potentially resolve the war in Ukraine. Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings downgraded Russia’s debt to “selective default,” adding that investors in international debt face increasingly difficult challenges in recovering funds. The World Bank cuts its economic projection for Emerging Market Economies in Europe and Asia from 3% growth to a contraction of 4.1% due to the conflict in Ukraine. In Asia, China’s CPI growth for March was in line with expectations, rising compared with February due to increased energy costs. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the country’s economy is starting to recover… but the central bank won’t hesitate with more support if needed. Bank of Korea Governor nominee Rhee Chang-Yong said the growth of household debt must be constrained before it hampers overall economic output. China’s stock and bond markets experienced over $6 billion worth of overseas assets pulled during the first quarter – one of the worst quarterly outflows on record. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.5% as China’s ongoing lockdowns stroke demand fears, while Bitcoin fell over 6% after China made all cryptocurrency transactions illegal following its closure of bitcoin mining operations in the Sichuan Province.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 145 points yesterday, and is now ahead by 771 points for April after closing March with a gain of 5883 points. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.69% lower at a price of 4412.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 413 points lower for a 1.19% loss at a price of 34,308.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.35% lower at a price of 13,990.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.79% lower at a price of 26,609.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0885.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3028.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.8%, closing at $125.29.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points higher at 0.81%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 1.85%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points higher 2.81%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.5% lower at $94.66 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.48% higher at $1953.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI along with U.K. Average Earnings and Unemployment at 7.00 am. Next, we have Euro and German ZEW Survey at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index and CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Brainard at 5.10 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Sometimes, you just get the markets wrong and that is what happened to me yesterday as rising Global Yields saw U.S. Indexes get slammed, with all three markets closing on their lows. After the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4455 average long position the market fell shy of my 4482 T/P level with a 4479 high print before stopping me out of this trade at 4429 and I am still flat. Thankfully, I had no further buy levels in either the Dow or S&P given the large sell-off into the close. The S&P is now comfortably below its 200 Day MA (4493) while the late sell-off saw the 5O-Day MA broken as well (4426). All eyes will be on the CPI release at 1.30 pm where the expectation is for an 8.5% print, well above last month’s 7.9% release. The S&P has resistance from 4470/4490 where I will be a seller with a 4506 stop. The S&P has strong support from 4340/4360 where I will be an aggressive buyer with no stop for now.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still a seller on any rally higher to 1.0945/1.0995 with the same 1.1031 stop. The Euro has short-term support from 1.0760/1.0820 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 1.0695 stop.
March Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller from 100.25/100.75 with the same 101.21 stop.
Cash DAX
Having held in for most of yesterday, the DAX sold off into the New York close and is now trading at 14030 as I go to press. I will now lower my buy level to 13780/13880 with a lower 13695 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
It took a while but finally the FTSE sold off to my 7630 T/P level on my latest 7670 short position and I am now flat. Subsequently, the FTSE fell 70 points into the New York close and is trading at a price of 7565 this morning. The FTSE has resistance from 7620/7680 where I will be a seller with a 7718 tight stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 7580.
Dow Rolling Contract
I was lucky yesterday as after the Dow traded lower to my 34490 buy level we had a small rally enabling me to cover this position at my revised 34565 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am still flat. This morning the Dow is trading lower at 34230. The Dow has strong support from 33880/34080 where I will be a strong buyer with a 33745 wider stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34305. I do not want to be short the Dow at this time given the extent of the decline since last Monday.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has now fallen over 1300 points or 9% since last Monday as one long position after another gets slammed. (Including me). Yesterday’s move lower saw the whole of my second buy level filled for a 14125 average long position. Adding this trade to my original 14630 long position I am now aggressively long at a price of 14327. The only reason I am still in this trade is because I believe that Technology Stocks are now good value plus we can afford to hold the position after the tremendous gains of Q1. I will continue to hold this trade with no stop and I will come back later today for an update to my Platinum Members after we get the CPI release.
June BUND
The Bund got hit hard yesterday and this move lower is certainly not helping the ECB who are now sitting on massive losses on their Bond Holdings. I am still long at a price of 158.30. I will now add to this position at 154.50 with a now 153.95 stop. If any of these levels are filled, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1912/1927 with a higher 1899 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and today I will continue to be a buyer from 23.60/24.30 with the same 22.95 stop.
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