U.S. Indexes ultimately closed mixed on Wednesday, with the NASDAQ 100 in the green while the S&P 500 finished marginally lower. The Dow and Russell 2000 were the clear laggards. Sector performance was predominantly weaker, although Technology and Energy closed in positive territory, while Materials underperformed amid broad weakness in metal prices. Technology was supported by gains in Broadcom (AVGO) after the company signed a deal worth more than USD 30 billion develop and supply chips for Apple (AAPL), helping underpin the NASDAQ despite broader market weakness. The primary driver throughout the session was the renewed escalation in Middle East tensions. Overnight, the US struck targets in southern Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with attacks on US military sites in the Gulf. Later in the day, President Trump said he believed the ceasefire was over, further lifting geopolitical risk sentiment. Also, in late trade, explosions were heard across southern Iran. The renewed tensions pushed crude prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and weighing on Treasuries, while also limiting demand for precious metals as higher Treasury yields offset the typical safe-haven bid. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the Dollar failed to benefit, with the New Zealand Dollar leading G10 gains following the RBNZ’s hawkish rate hike overnight, while the Japanese Yen underperformed. Elsewhere, the June FOMC Minutes generated little market reaction but reinforced the hawkish tone delivered at last month’s meeting, highlighting the broad range of views among policymakers on the appropriate future path for interest rates. The USD 39 billion 10-year Treasury auction was also met with strong demand but had little impact on broader price action, with markets remaining focused on developments in the Middle East. The FOMC Minutes largely echoed the hawkish June press conference and showed the committee was divided about the outlook for rates, similar to what the dot plots suggested. A few said that there was a case for hiking rates but ultimately supported maintaining rates in June. Meanwhile, most pointed to a scenario of stable labour conditions and elevated inflation, where the Fed would need to tighten policy. Meanwhile, those who felt inflationary pressures would dissipate and return to 2%, almost all said it would be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower rates. Regarding the level of restrictiveness, several said they did not see it as restrictive, while a few others said they saw it as slightly restrictive. Regarding the statement changes, a majority saw advantages of shortening the statement, and some welcomed the opportunity to review communication tools and practices. Most preferred not to repeat the easing bias within the statement. Summarising the Minutes, Wall Street Journalist Timiraos said, “The June FOMC minutes are interesting: they frame the committee’s divide as a split over the outlook, not necessarily over tactics’’. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 5% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 1.3% loss.
To mark my 3400th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 485 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2454 points for July after ending June with a new record of 10527 points after ending May with a loss of 1104 points, having ended April with a gain of 1730 points, after ending March with a massive gain of 9002 points, having closed February with a strong gain of 5482 points after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a previous record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 7482.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 576 points lower for a 1.09% loss at a price of 52,348.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.27% higher at a price of 29,252.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.76% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.38% higher at 67,743.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.18% lower at $1.1415.
The British Pound closed 0.12% lower at $1.3360.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $162.13.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 7 basis points higher at 4.98%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 9 basis points higher at 3.09%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 4.58%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 5.2% higher at $74.56 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.37% lower at $4084.10 an ounce.
This afternoon on the Economic front we have the latest Minutes from last month’s ECB Meeting at 12.30 pm. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm and a speech from Fed Member Williams at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm and a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as shortly after I posted on Wednesday the S&P hit my 7432 buy level before rallying to my revised 7462 T/P level and I am now flat. Futures Markets are higher this morning with the S&P trading back above 7500. We have short-term, resistance from 7535/7560 where I will be a seller with a 7581 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is still on a move lower to 7405/7430 with a tight 7389 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 7509. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7463. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The boring sideways price action continues. I am still long the Euro at an average price of 1.1460 with the same 1.1345 ‘Closing Stop’. Today, I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1485 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. The Dollar has support below from 99.90/100.60 where I will be a buyer with a 99.35 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 101.20.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 3020/3090 with the same 3155 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2970.
FTSE 100
My FTSE plan worked well as after the market hit my 10710-sell level we sold off to my revised 10658 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 10700/10780 with the same 10855 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 10630.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 53300-sell level before selling off to my 52910 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 53250/53550 with the same 53805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 52910. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 29070 average long position before rallying to my revised 29230 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has short-term support below from 28600/28800 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 20395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29050.
December BUND
Bond Yields rose across the board on Tuesday. The subsequent sell-off in the Bund saw the market hit my 125.90 buy level. I am still long with a lower 126.55 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 125.20 while leaving my 124.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold has support below at 3970/4070. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 3855 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4140.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as after the market hit my 59.60 buy level we rallied to my revised 60.30 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 56.00/59.00 with a lower 53.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 61.15.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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