Yesterday was one of the busiest trading sessions in many months, packed full of data that led to some large intraday moves. ADP payrolls (better than expected) and the Non-manufacturing ISM (worse than expected) gave contrasting reads on the labour market, while the FOMC Minutes confirmed that a change to the reinvestment policy was likely later this year. Equities initially rose then fell along with US Treasury yields, while the US Dollar was broadly unchanged. On the FOMC Minutes, the US Treasury market focused in on the balance sheet comments with yields down 2.5 bps to 2.34%. The Fed said it was considering ending or slowing reinvestment of Treasuries and mortgages ‘later this year’ and there was no suggestion of actively selling assets. These comments were seemingly interpreted as implying less need for Fed rate hikes given a phasing down of the reinvestment policy could act as a defacto tightening, while the path of tightening could also be delayed as the Fed would want to assess the impact of the phasing down on the market (also conveyed by the Fed’s Dudley last week).

To mark my 1300th issue of Tradernoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1/4 updated emails throughout the trading day. This offer is open to both new and existing members and if anyone is interested can you please contact me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details.

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 183 points yesterday and is now ahead by 294 points for April, having made 1335 points in March, 1481 in February and 1734 in January. The previous seven months saw gains of 1351, 1971, 1582, 1142, 1782, 1682 and 2550 points respectively. Since I started this Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1750 points.

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