U.S. Indexes closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading session, The NASDAQ 100 again led the rally, closing higher by 0.56%, helped by a further sell-off in the U.S. Dollar. American home prices have risen for the fifth straight month with a 0.7% increase in June. National home prices remained flat on a year-over-year (“YOY”) basis, but recent data from real estate company Redfin showed prices climbed 3% YOY for the four weeks through August 6. Demand has remained strong in the face of rising borrowing costs, which is largely due to limited inventory. This highly competitive and undersupplied market has made for the most unaffordable housing period since 1984. U.S. Job Openings fell to 8.83 million for the month of July, surpassing a two-year low and marking the sixth decline in seven months. The “quits rate,” which measures voluntary job leavers, also dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2021. The recent job openings report suggests Americans are less confident about finding another job as labour demands cool. Despite this decline in labour demand, the unemployment rate remains historically low – fuelling hope that the U.S. can avoid a recession. Hurricane Idalia briefly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane early Wednesday morning while moving towards Florida’s west coast. Just before making landfall, wind speeds slowed, downgrading the storm to a Category 3 hurricane. With sustained winds at 125 mph, the storm brought a “catastrophic storm surge” to the Big Bend area, as stated by the National Hurricane Centre, bringing large scale flooding and power outages through western Florida and South Georgia. Grayscale Investments took one step forward toward launching a spot-based bitcoin (BTC) fund in the U.S., after judges overturned a previous ruling on Tuesday. The fund is tied to the spot bitcoin price and could potentially draw billions of dollars from everyday investors. The ruling to overturn the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s initial block sent bitcoin’s price higher – surging more than 7% during mid-day trading. The decision is a significant milestone for the crypto industry, as a Bitcoin-based fund is viewed to bring cryptocurrency exposure to traditional investors. European Markets closed mixed. The German DAX reversed earlier gains following the higher than expected 6.1% Y/Y print for German CPI. In Asia, China’s largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits in an effort to stimulate growth in the country’s economy. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank are reportedly considering cutting deposit rates for the third time in a year in an attempt to encourage consumer spending. China’s banks are cautiously trying to stimulate the economy without compromising financial stability. The decision to cut mortgage rates follows previous measures to lower benchmark rates and average mortgage costs. But the impact on consumer confidence is still uncertain. Meanwhile, Chinese investors are feeling less confident in China’s economy today. So many investors are instead turning to overseas assets like exchange-traded funds and mutual funds with the hope of diversifying their portfolios, seeking better returns abroad, and hedging against the challenges of their home market. As demand for foreign investments surge, fund managers are clawing for more shares under a highly regulated process. Despite regulatory challenges, experts believe that demand for offshore funds will persist due to those investors searching for diversification. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.58%, while continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar saw Gold close higher by 0.30%.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday as none of my calls were hit and is still ahead by 1445 points for August following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.38% higher at a price of 4514.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 37 points higher for a 0.11% gain at a price of 34,891.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.56% higher at a price of 15,462.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.12% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.88% higher at a price of 32,619.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0912.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 127.08.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $146.10.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.55%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 4.43%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.11%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.58% higher at $81.63 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $1945.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German July Retail Sales which fell 0.8% versus +0.3% expected. Next, we have speeches from the ECB’s Schnabel at 8.00 am and the Bank of England’s Pill at 8.15 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI and the Unemployment Rate at 10.00 am. At 12,30 pm we have the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts from last month’s 0.25% rate increase. This is followed at 1.30 pm by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Personal/Income Spending including the PCE Price Index. Finally, we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has now rallied 180 Handles since last Thursday’s low print. This is a 4.1% rally in four trading sessions. It took almost four weeks for the S&P to fall 6% and only four days to reverse most of this sell-off. This move higher has now negated the potential Head & Shoulders formation on the S&P chart. Bears have nothing for now as the Seasonal Chart is bullish until Mid-September. The aggressiveness of this S&P rally means any subsequent sell-off should be met by strong buying at the 50 Day Moving Average which comes in at 4464 this morning. I am still flat the S&P as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 4480/4495 with a wider 4463 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 4560/4575 where I will be a small seller with a 4491 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat the Euro as the market continues to build value off its recent 1.0780 support level which of course is the 200-Day Moving Average. This morning the Euro is trading at 1.0915. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0800/1.0870 with a higher 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat. I will now lower my Dollar sell level to 103.60/104.30 with a lower 104.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dollar has short-term support from 102.00/102.60 where I will be a small buyer with a 101.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
I did not like the price action in the DAX yesterday. The DAX having hit a morning high at 16005, fell 100 points from this high into the European Close. This fall came against a new recovery high for the S&P. The DAX has resistance from 16010/16100 where I will be a small seller with a 16075 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my buy level to 15700/15780 with a wider 15595 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still flat as I continue to be a seller on any further rally to 7550/7630 with the same 7705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still no longer want to be a buyer of the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow has rallied over 1000 points since Monday as yet again anyone trying to be short the American Indexes for any sustained period pays a heavy price. I am still flat the Dow as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. With the 50 Day MA moving higher to 34697, I will now raise my buy level to 34550/34800 while leaving my 34395 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustrating. The NDX missed yesterday’s 15280 initial buy level with a 15320 low print before rallying to sit at 15,470 as I go to press. I have mentioned a few times how never to be short the NDX when the 14-Day RSI for Apple was below 30. In the past few days, Apple Shares have rallied over 12% helping the RSI to close last night at 59. Apple’s announcement of their latest iPhone event on September 12 has helped the NDX to mount this huge 900-point rally since last Friday as the market has now closed higher for the fourth consecutive session. Even though the NDX is short-term overbought I have now interest in being short, preferring to be a buyer of dips. Today, I will now raise my buy level to 15220/15370 with a higher 15095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 15485.
September BUND
Frustratingly, the Bund missed yesterday’s initial 131.70 buy level by 9 points before having a subsequent 60-point rally into the close. I am not going to chase the Bund higher as we are seeing a lot of selling near the 132.50/132.80 resistance area. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 131.00/131.70 with the same 130.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a high of 1949 yesterday before having a small retracement into the New York Close. I am not going to chase Gold higher as we are approaching the 1960 pivot point that has generated a lot of selling over the past two months. Therefore, I will continue to be a strong buyer from 1902/1917 with the same 1889 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat Silver having exited my latest long position on Tuesday. Silver has short-term support from 23.70/24.40 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 25.10.
Recent Comments