U.S. Indices saw two-way action on Wednesday but ultimately closed mixed with a downward bias. The big-tech weakness continued to weigh on Indices, while the equal-weight S&P was marginally lower. Elsewhere, T-notes were firmer for a lot of the session but ultimately settled with little change. The initial upside was led by the front-end after Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, with reports suggesting he is considering firing her amid alleged mortgage fraud. However, the upside had faded into the FOMC Minutes and pushed lower thereafter. The Minutes leaned hawkish, with the majority of participants more concerned about risks to inflation over the labour market. Albeit, the Minutes do not incorporate the latest NFP data with chunky two-month revisions. This saw the Dollar pare some of its earlier weakness while T-notes pushed lower back to the near-unchanged mark. Stocks briefly sold off before paring in response. Elsewhere, oil prices were bid after chunky crude draws, while there was punchy rhetoric from Russia against Europe regarding the Ukraine peace talks. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel has begun its offensive in Gaza, calling up 60k reservists. In FX, the New Zealand Dollar lagged after a dovish RBNZ, which cut by 25bps as expected, but with two 50bps dissenters. Attention turns to Flash PMIs on Thursday, as well as Weekly Jobless Claims, ahead of Fed Chair Powell on Friday at Jackson Hole. Overall, the FOMC Minutes had hawkish elements, but it is worth stressing that the Minutes do not incorporate the latest NFP or CPI/PPI reports – so some views on the economy have since changed. Therefore, I will look to Fed Chair Powell on Friday to gather expectations for September, with money markets pricing in a 25bps rate cut with an 84% probability. There is still another NFP and CPI report due before the next FOMC meeting on September 17th. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 1.38% and 0.71% respectively.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 96 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2620 points for August after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.24% lower at a price of 6395.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 16 points higher for a 0.04% gain at a price of 44,938.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.58% lower at a price of 23,249.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.65% lower at a price of 42,619.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% lower.
The Euro closed 0.11% higher at $1.1659.
The British Pound closed 0.23% lower at $1.3460.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.24% closing at $147.19
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points lower at 4.67%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.72%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.29%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.38% higher at $63.21 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.71% higher at $3348.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am and a speech from Fed Member Bostic at 12.30 pm. Next, we have Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Composite PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have Existing Home Sales and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P made a low at 6344 on Wednesday afternoon. Subsequently buyers turned up, driving the market 60 Handles higher into the close. I am still flat as yesterday’s sell range was never threatened, and I am still flat. I expect a quiet session ahead of Powell tomorrow afternoon where hopefully his comments will lead to some two-way price action. Valuations are off the charts and a pull back is needed. If we do get a meaningful sell-off I will be a strong buyer at the support levels I outlined in yesterday’s commentary. Short-term the S&P will have support from 6330/6348 where I will be a small buyer with a 6315 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I will not chase the market lower as I continue to be a seller from 6438/6458 with the same 6473 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6366. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6412.
EUR/USD.
The Euro rallied to my 1.1670 sell level I am still short with a now higher 1.1625 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 1.1750 while leaving my 1.1825 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
Yesterday afternoon, the Dollar traded lower to my 98.10 buy level. I am still long with the same 98.70 T/P level. I will look to add to this position at97.40 while leaving 96.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Frustratingly the Russell missed my 2250 level by just one point before having a small rally into the close. I am still short the Russell from last week at an average rate of 2280. Today, I will leave my 2365 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2255. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to defy logic, rallying to close at a new all-time high on Wednesday. This move higher saw my second sell level at 9255 triggered for a now 9220 average short position. I will leave my 9305 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 9200. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow just missed Wednesday’s 45100 initial sell level before falling 300 points and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 45100/45350 with the same 45505 ‘Closing Stop’. Given how overbought the Dow is trading I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44870.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has closed lower for five consecutive trading sessions as investors rotate out of tech and into the Blue Chip stocks. I am still flat as Wednesday’s sell range was never hit. The NDX has support below from 22700/22850 where I will be a strong buyer with a 22555 ‘Closing Stop’. The NDX has resistance from 23500/23650 where I will again be a seller with the same 23755 ‘’Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 23030. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 23350.
December BUND
The Bund had a small rally on Wednesday. This move higher saw my revised 129.30 T/P level triggered on my latest 128.95 long position and I am now flat. Ahead of Powell’s speech tomorrow I will not chase the Bund higher. Therefore, I will only be a buyer on any dip lower to 128.00/128.80 with a lower 127.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.40. Despite the low yields I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will continue to look to buy Gold on any further dip lower to 3275/3295 with a the same 3259 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3318. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 37.20 long Silver position worked well as the market rallied to my revised 37.81 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 36.40/37.20 with the same 35.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37.90.
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