U.S. Equity Markets closed higher after an earlier dip, led by 0.77% gain in the NASDAQ 100. This move higher saw the VIX close lower by a further 3.60% at a price of 18.23. Treasury yields surged higher on expectations that the current Federal Reserve terminal rate might not be high enough to tamp down inflation. Industrial Production for January was unchanged, according to the Federal Reserve. This marks the fourth straight month that production has not expanded. Manufacturing Production for January rose 1% following the prior month’s decline of 1.8%, as motor vehicles and parts rebounded. Retail Sales for January surged 3% from December as consumers spent more on motor vehicles, furniture, and clothing. Finally, the National Association of Home Builders rose seven points in February, its largest monthly increase since 2013. Within the S&P 500 Index, nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets again closed higher. U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is due to meet with EU leaders this week in a final push for a Brexit deal on Northern Ireland. ECB chief Christine Lagarde affirmed the central bank’s plan to raise its interest rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting. U.K. CPI growth for January was 10.1% year over year, the lowest figure since last September thanks to easing energy costs. Euro-Zone Industrial Production Figures for December showed a weakened outlook with a 1.1% decline from November as the region struggled to handle the ongoing energy crisis. In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said his new Bank of Japan nominees will work cooperatively with the government to manage monetary policy and create price stability. A Nikkei survey found that Japan’s First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product growth is expected to pick up following Q4 2022’s lacklustre results. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said that while rate hikes have created economic pain, more will be needed to tackle rising inflation. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.70% lower while Gold fell 0.88% after a volatile session.
To mark my 2700th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 2294 points for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.28% higher at a price of 4147
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher for a 0.11% gain at a price of 34,128.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.77% higher at a price of 12,687.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.42% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.8%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.37% lower at a price of 27,501.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.5% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0689.
The British Pound closed 1.1% lower at 1.2038.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.5% closing at $133.73.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.49%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 3.49%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 3.79%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.70% lower at $78.51 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.88% lower at $1839.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am, followed by a speech from ECB Member Panetta at 9.15 am. Next, we have U.S. PPI, Weekly Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. Finally, we have speeches from ECB Members Lane at 3.00 pm and De Guindos at 7.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the VIX falling 15% in the past three days bulls have found it difficult to get any move higher in the S&P. Clearly rising Bond Yields do not matter at the moment as the NASDAQ 100 again led yesterday’s move higher. None of my calls got close to being hit yesterday and I am still flat as we wait for this afternoon’s PPI release. You know my game plan. I will be an aggressive seller from 4215/4230. This is where the Monthly 20 MA and Weekly 100 MA come in, with a wider 4251 ‘’Closing Stop’’ if triggered. The S&P has short-term support from 4095/4110. I will move my buy level to this area with a higher 4079 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 4020/4035 with no stop or T/P level for now as I want to give this trade some room on any test.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded heavy yesterday, hitting my initial 1.0670 buy level. I am still long with the same 1.0725 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any move lower to 1.0600 with the same 1.0545 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market goes on hold ahead of PPI which will be released at 1.30 pm. Given how oversold the Dollar is trading I have no interest in being short. Therefore, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 102.10/102.80 with the same 101.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
No Change. The price action continues to see strong buying on any dip. Despite the DAX being extremely overbought there is no point in trying to go short. For me to turn bearish I need the DAX to break and close below 15,000 for two consecutive trading sessions. I will now raise my DAX buy level to 15300/13380 with a higher 15195 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE closed at yet another new all-time high as the market is now trading over the key 8000 resistance level. I am still flat as the market again missed my buy range by just 2 points before having a nice 100-point rally. I will now raise my buy level to 7870/7940 with a tight 7815 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow continues to find support above its 50-Day Moving Average. I am still flat as the market fell shy of yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 33650/33900 with a higher 33495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in selling the Dow is still on a rally higher to 34420/34670 with the same 34855 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly the NDX just missed yesterday’s buy level before having a nice 200 point rally into the close. I will now raise my buy level to 12420/12570 with a higher 12195 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
March BUND
The rise in Treasury Yields saw the Bund hit my second buy level at 135.00 for a now 135.35 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 135.90 while leaving my 134.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from yesterday morning at 1837. I will continue to add to this position at 1825 while leaving my 1817 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. With Gold trading at 1842 as I go to press, I will leave my 1847 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver has traded sideways since we saw the market fall 3% on Thursday. I am still convinced that it is only a matter of time before Silver takes out the key 24.00/25.00 resistance area. Remember in May 2011, Silver was trading above $50. I am still long at an average rate of 23.10 with the same no stop policy. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 23.50. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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