U.S. Indices closed mixed as the risk tone was mixed on Wednesday, with European Indices rallying across the board, but US Indices were mixed. The SPX, NDX, and RUT closed little changed, but the Dow Jones again saw strong outperformance thanks to upside in heavyweights UnitedHealth (UNH) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Cisco (CSCO) also saw upside ahead of earnings. Breadth was more positive with the RSP rising while sectors were mixed – Health Care, Financials and Materials outperformed, but Energy, Communication and Consumer Discretionary lagged. Tech was flat despite the upside in AMD (AMD) after its analyst day. Crude prices plummeted on Wednesday, with pressure seen in the wake of Tass reporting that Russia is open to speaking to Ukraine, while the latest OPEC MOMR raised oversupply concerns after 2025 and 2026 world oil demand forecasts were left unchanged, but the 2025 supply forecast was raised. Meanwhile, in the STEO, the EIA marginally revised up world oil production and demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026, all by 0.1 million BPD, aside from the 2026 production forecast, which was revised up by 0.2 million BPD. In FX, the Dollar was flat, while the Swiss Franc was strong while the Japanese Yen underperformed. Gold and Silver rallied while T-Notes bull flattened with cash trade resuming from Veterans Day, which saw the soft weekly ADP report on Tuesday. The NY Fed President (Williams) believes that it will not be long before they reach ample reserves, and when they do, they will resume gradual bond buying. Williams described it as an ‘inexact science’ to determine whether the reserves are ample. Williams called the renewed balance sheet expansion technical, not monpol. He is closely watching markets for liquidity signals and said the standing repo facility is effective and should be used when needed, even without stigma. The Atlanta Fed announced that Bostic will be retiring as President from the end of February 2026, when his term expires. He issued a speech thereafter where he emphasised that price stability remains the clearer and more urgent risk, favouring keeping the Fed Funds Rate steady until there is clear evidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target. He described policy as marginally restrictive and signalled openness to changing stance if conditions shift. While the labour market is shifting rather than weakening, and real-time indicators show a curious state of balance, he sees no unambiguous signs of a cyclical downturn that would justify easing policy while inflation remains elevated. The Atlanta Fed President noted that core services and core goods prices remain high, and that inflation pressures—particularly from services ex-housing and firms’ pricing intentions—are expected to persist well into 2026. He warned against assuming a quick fade in inflation pressures, especially with tariff impacts and upward-drifting inflation expectations. Bostic also cautioned that surveys and other forward-looking indicators suggest inflation is unlikely to decline substantially for some time. That raises the concern that inflation expectations could drift upward and trigger behaviours which produce higher actual inflation. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 4.5% while Gold continued its latest move higher with a further gain of 1.67%.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 325 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2442 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% higher at a price of 6851.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 326 points higher for a 0.68% gain at a price of 48,254.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 25,517.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.71% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.43% higher at a price of 51,063.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% higher.
The Euro closed 0.06% higher at $1.1590.
The British Pound closed 0.19% lower at $1.3131.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.37% closing at $154.73
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points higher at 4.40%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.64%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.07%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.28% lower at $58.43 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.66% higher at $4195.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. GDP and Industrial/Manufacturing Production along with the Trade Balance at 7.00 am. Next, we have the ECB Economic Bulletin and Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The price action over the past month continues to reinforce the view that much of the market’s movement is being driven by options positioning and volatility dynamics. For instance, we have seen several Mondays marked by strong rallies, followed by quieter Tuesdays and Wednesdays—suggesting that implied volatility resets early in the week are influencing flows. Despite the S&P 500 finishing higher on Wednesday, the underlying dynamics painted a different picture. The S&P 500 Dispersion Index declined, while the 3-Month Implied Correlation Index rose—an unusual combination that typically signals the index should be moving lower, not higher. The spread between dispersion and 3-Month Correlation also contracted, which historically aligns with periods of market weakness rather than strength. In short, dispersion and correlation metrics continue to point to downside risk, suggesting that yesterday’s small gain was likely an outlier driven by light trading volumes rather than genuine risk appetite or improving fundamentals. The 1966 analog, which I am currently tracking on two separate paths, continues to suggest that the market may be approaching a turning point. The original track—used as a reference during the 2022–2023 period—and the updated version, which reflects the current year’s pace, both indicate a move lower in the days ahead. The newer, faster-moving track implies that the Index may be near a terminal peak, with a more meaningful drawdown likely to begin within the next day or two. Of course, analogs are never perfect and tend to fail when they are most anticipated, but this one has held up reasonably well over the past three years, making it a reference point worth monitoring closely. Softbank shares closed lower by 3% yesterday following the news that SoftBank has sold its stake in NVIDIA, raising questions about what has been driving its recent rally. It will be telling to see whether investors were attracted to SoftBank for its broader AI exposure or primarily as a vehicle for indirect NVIDIA exposure through Japan. Implied volatility in SoftBank has been rising steadily over the past few months, suggesting heightened speculative activity. If much of that speculation was tied to NVIDIA, the divestment could mark a turning point. The key question now is whether the removal of that NVIDIA link will deflate some of the speculative excess that has built up in Japan’s AI-related names. The next few trading sessions should provide valuable insight into whether this marks the start of a broader sentiment shift. I am still flat the S&P. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 6885/6905 with the same 6923 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is on a dip lower to 6755/6775 with the same 6739 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6801. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6863. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro continues to trade in narrow ranges and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1400/1.1480 with the same 1.1335 ‘Closing Stop’. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.1650/1.1730 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1540. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1590.
Dollar Index
No Change: Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 98.40/99.10 with the same 97.85 ‘Closing Stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.70. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
Even though the Russell closed lower on Wednesday my buy range was not challenged and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend, I will now lower my buy level to 2340/2400 with a lower 2295 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2445. I still do not want to be short the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
I have no idea why the FTSE continues to run higher. Growth is not great, inflation is still high and this month Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax hikes to fill the funding gap. Yet on the Monthly Chart the FTSE RSI is at its highest level since 2007 while the log chart is a vertical melt up. In normal times buying the Monthly Bollinger Band gets you spanked, now it is just a buy signal. I am still short the FTSE from Tuesday at a price of 9910 with the same 9850 T/P level. I will add to this position at 9980 while leaving my 10045 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! For the second consecutive trading session the Dow surged and in the process closed at a new all-time high. This move higher saw my 48205 wider ‘Closing Stop’ triggered on my latest 47750 average short position and I am now flat. None of us know but I shudder to think what happens if AI turns out to be the biggest BS story ever sold to the investing public which I suspect will happen. Wells Fargo downgraded the tech sector to neutral warning that sky-high valuations and bullish sentiment leave it vulnerable to disappointment. Tech stocks are currently 46X Earnings, far above the S&P’s 29X which in itself is historically extremely high. The Dow has further resistance from 48480/48730 where I will again be a seller with a higher 50005 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 48010. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time
Cash NASDAQ 100
My latest short 25580 NDX position worked well as the market sold off to my 25450 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 25700/25900 with a higher 26105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25520.
December BUND
No Change: I am still long at a price of 130.00 as the boring sideways price action in the Bund shows no sign of ending anytime soon. I will continue to look to add to this position at 129.00 with the same 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 130.20 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold closed a further 1.7% higher on Wednesday. Gold has support from 4020/4040 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 3985 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4073. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 50.20/51.20 with a higher 48.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 52.30.
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