U.S. Indices closed higher on Wednesday, tracking Europe higher throughout the morning. US indices peaked around the US open before paring into the European close, before pushing higher into the US close. Sectors were predominantly green with Utilities, Communication and Technology leading, with Consumer Staples, Energy and Real Estate lagging. NVIDIA (NVDA) was responsible for some of the upside, with the stock becoming the first company to reach a USD 4 trillion market cap. There was little US data to digest, but the Q2 Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was maintained at 2.6%. With the focus largely on trade updates, Trump continued to reveal more tariff letters (Philippines 20% vs 17% Liberation Day tariff; Libya 30% vs 31%; Iraq 30% vs 39%, Brunei 25% vs 24%, Algeria 30% vs 30%, Sri Lanka 30% vs 44%, Moldova 25% vs 31%), with the Brazil numbers set to be announced later. On the EU, reports suggest they are not going to receive a letter from the US, but it is aiming to reach a US deal before 1st August, and potentially over the coming days. It was also reported that the EU will face a higher tariff than the UK, but talks are ongoing. The FOMC minutes saw little reaction but confirmed a split rate outlook view on the Fed, in fitting with the June 2025 dot plots, although it did seem to confirm that only Waller and Bowman are willing to consider a July rate cut. It also revealed that several participants said the current Fed Funds rate may not be far above its neutral rate. T-notes rallied in the European session despite the upside in equities, with apparent short-covering the driver for the move higher, given the surge in yields since the beginning of July (yield from 4.187% to 4.435%). Meanwhile, the 10-year T-note auction was in line with recent averages. Oil settled flat in a choppy session, seeing upside on EIA data and Senator Thune’s commentary about Russia sanctions, but paring on Gaza ceasefire hopes. Gold prices were bid with the upside largely a function of the move lower in UST yields. FX majors saw little change, although the Canadian Dollar underperformed with the Dollar flat. However, the Brazilian Dollar lagged in the EMFX space in anticipation of Trump’s tariff announcement later. Note, Brazil’s Liberation Day tariff was the baseline 10% rate. Overall, the FOMC minutes revealed a split committee on the outlook for rates (as was alluded to by the June Dot Plots). The latest FOMC Minutes showed most participants saw some reduction in the Fed Funds rate this year as appropriate, though only a couple—likely Waller and Bowman—would be open to considering a cut as soon as July if data evolves as expected. Some participants judged no rate cuts would be needed, citing elevated inflation readings, sticky expectations, and resilient economic activity. However, most participants saw some reduction in the Fed Funds rate this year as appropriate. On the neutral rate, several said that the current policy rate may not be far from neutral, while all agreed in June that it was appropriate to keep rates on hold. On inflation, a few noted limited recent progress on core inflation, while there were also concerns that lower- and moderate-income households are increasingly trading down due to price pressures. On the labour market, most believed higher tariffs or greater policy uncertainty would weigh on demand, with many expecting a gradual softening; a few flagged emerging signs of weakness and said they would watch for further deterioration. While participants agreed risks of higher inflation and weaker employment had diminished, they remain elevated, and although uncertainty has eased slightly—helped by fewer announced or expected tariffs—it is still high. Elsewhere, Fed staff revised up their 2025 real GDP growth forecast and saw slightly lower inflation than before. Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s SOMA chief noted market participants now expect the balance sheet runoff to conclude by February 2026 (vs January 2026 prior), with the Fed’s portfolio projected at USD 6.2 trillion (around 20% of GDP), with reserves at USD 2.9 trillion and ONRRP balances remaining low. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a small 0.4% gain.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 180 points yesterday and is now ahead by 975 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.61% higher at a price of 6263.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 217 points higher for a 0.49% gain at a price of 44,458.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.72% higher at a price of 22,864.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.66% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.61% lower at a price of 39,577.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% higher.
The Euro closed 0.13% higher at $1.1724.
The British Pound closed 0.04% lower at $1.3589.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $146.64.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.61%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.63%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points lower at 4.38%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.10% lower at $68.26 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% higher at $3315.10 an ounce.
This morning on Economic front we already had the release of German Final CPI for June which came in at +2.0% versus +2.0% Y/Y Preliminary. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm and a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Waller at 6.15 pm and Daly at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Just when you think that the S&P may have topped last week the market soared to a rebound high at 6270 before falling 40 Handles and rallying 30 Handles off its 6231 afternoon low into its Chicago close. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a 6258 average short position before selling off to my revised 6240 T/P level and I am now flat. With the 14-Day RSI closing above 70 last night and the $NYSI close to being max overbought I have no interest in buying the S&P at these levels as I cannot see the risk/reward especially with the Fear & Greed Index again closing with an ‘’Extreme’’ print. The ongoing ‘Open Gaps’ below feast is something that I have never seen before and we are in unchartered territory in that regard. However, the price action remains clean as the trend keeps getting saved on any minor retracement. Liquidity is getting added at a huge rate almost on a daily basis making it extremely difficult to have a short position for any sustained period. The S&P has resistance from 6280/6300 where I will be a small seller with a 6321 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 6140/6160 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 6125 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6257. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6182.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 1.1770/1.1840 with the same 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level again at 1.1700. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
As we know the Dollar Index has had its worst first half of the year since 1973. Back then, the Dollar bottomed on July 2, 1973 and rallied 21% to January 1974, retracing the entire first half decline. Over the past three weeks Institutional Managed Money Accounts have accrued their largest net-short stance in U.S. Dollar Futures Contracts in 15 years. A net 31% of managers are underweight the Dollar which is the most in 20 years. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg Pulse Survey of Bloomberg users finds that the Dollar is’’ hanging on to its safety haven role by a thread.’’ Survey respondents are ‘’overwhelmingly bearish’’ the Dollar as a ‘’weaker Dollar is here to stay.’’ The 30-Day Daily Sentiment Indicator (DSI Courtesy of Trade-Futures.com) for the Dollar is at its lowest level in four years. Given all of the above it is only a matter of time before the Dollar puts in a sustainable bottom which will last for many weeks at least in my opinion. I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 97.40 with the same 96.35 ‘Closing Stop.’’ I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 98.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer of the Russell on any dip lower to 2100/2180 with the same 2065 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2240.
FTSE 100
I am still short the FTSE from Tuesday at 8870 with the same 9005 ‘’Closing Stop.’’ I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 8940. Meanwhile, I will leave my 8810 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow missed Wednesday’s 44600 initial sell range by 45 points before falling 300 points and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my Dow sell level to 44800/45050 with a higher 45305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44540. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short the NDX at an average rate of 22750 as frustratingly the NDX keeps missing my T/P level. I have had this position too long and I will now raise my T/P level to 22700. Meanwhile, I will leave my 23005 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund at 129.90 with a now lower 129.95 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 128.70 with the same 128.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher as I prefer to wait for a move lower before buying. Gold has support below from 3240/3260 where I will continue to look to buy the market with the same 3225 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3282.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to trade sideways near its high for the year as the market tries to work off some of its severely overbought condition. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 34.80/35.80 with the same 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 36.70.
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