The VIX closing a huge 7.50% lower saw all three American Indexes reverse Thursday’s losses, led by the NASDAQ 100 which ended Friday with a gain of 1.85%. Thursday’s bearish engulfing reversal candle did not matter as the markets surged from the off, following better earnings from Intel. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency introduced new measures Thursday aimed to enhance the financial stability of banks but may result in reduced competitiveness for the country’s lenders. Under the proposed regulations, banks with assets of at least $100 billion would be required to increase their capital reserves by approximately 16%. The eight largest banks would face a 19% increase, while lenders with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion may see as little as a 5% increase. Intel shares rose as the chipmaker provided a positive revenue forecast for the current quarter, indicating potential improvement in demand for computer components and a potential comeback for the company. Intel expects sales in the third quarter to be as high as $13.9 billion, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $13.3 billion. The company also anticipates earnings of 20 cents per share, compared to a profit projection of 13 cents per share by analysts. This optimistic outlook suggests that Intel is seeing signs of recovery and better market conditions in the semiconductor industry. Exon Mobile reported its third consecutive drop in profit marking the longest decline since the 2014-2016 oil-market crash. The company’s adjusted earnings of $1.94 per share fell 6 cents below analysts’ expectations. Net income also dropped to $7.9 billion, less than half of the previous year’s level. Weaker natural gas prices and lower returns from fuel sales were cited as the main reasons for the disappointing performance. This year U.S. Office space is on track to experience a historic decline, with the amount of office space decreasing for possibly the first time ever. The decrease is attributed to a combination of factors, including a lack of new construction and the repurposing or demolition of aging office buildings. Jones Lang LaSalle predicts that less than 5 million square feet of new office space was constructed this year, while a significant 14.7 million square feet of office space has been removed, often to be converted into buildings for other purposes. This net decline in office space is unprecedented in data going back to 2000, making it likely the first of its kind in history. European Markets again closed higher. ECB President Lagarde is facing the challenge of implementing tighter monetary policy to control inflation while simultaneously driving the Euro-Zone economy into a downturn. In Thursday’s statement, Lagarde expressed a pessimistic outlook for the economy, acknowledging the negative impact of the ECB’s interest rate increases. Unlike the Federal Reserve’s optimistic view of the U.S. economy, ECB officials are adopting a more cautious stance, recognising the consequences of their actions on economic activity. As they consider further tightening measures, assessing the impact on growth becomes crucial in their efforts to curb inflation. In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s decision to ease its control on Bond Yields had significant impacts on financial markets. Japan’s 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2014, causing fluctuations in the Japanese Yen’s value and sparking debates about the country’s policy normalisation. In response to the news, US bond markets experienced a decline as investors speculated that higher yields in Japan might lead to cash repatriation, considering Japanese investors are major holders of US government debt. Treasury 10-year yields remained flat at 4%, following a 16 basis points increase on Thursday. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.50% while Gold Friday with a 0.60% gain.
To mark my 2850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 50 points on Friday and is now ahead by 238 points for July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.99% higher at a price of 4582.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 178 points higher for a 0.50% gain at a price of 35,459.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.85% higher at a price of 15,750.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.70% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.34% higher at a price of 33,198.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1012.
The British Pound closed 0.5% higher at 1.2860.
The Japanese Yen fell 1.2% closing at $141.70.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.51%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.33%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.99%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.4% higher at $80.55 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $1956.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which fell 0.8% versus +0.2% expected. At 9.30 am we have U.K. Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Money Supply, followed by Euro-Zone GDP and CPI at 10.00 am. Finally, we have the Chicago Fed Purchasing Managers’ Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 2.45 pm and 3.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Following important technical signals have made my Platinum Service numerous points over the past 10 years. However, I am challenged in way that I have never been challenged before given the way investors are just piling into stock markets at these absurd valuations. Normally when we have a bearish engulfing pattern that we saw across all American Indexes on Thursday, you see follow-through to the downside over the coming days. However, the S&P gapped higher on Friday, rising 60 handles from Thursday’s low. This move higher has me short at an average rate of 4574. The S&P is now back to nine ‘’Open Gap’s since March. We still have no evidence of a proper breakdown despite ‘’technicals’’ keep signalling ever more market danger, but it will not matter until it does. Today may see some more month-end shenanigans but August seasonality turns weaker soon even when buybacks are coming back. I will have a 4560 T/P level on the S&P short position with the same 4608 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
Ni Change. I am still long from Thursday at an average rate of 1.1030. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.1070 with the same 1.0935 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar sold off to my 101.40 buy level on Friday before rallying to my revised 101.60 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Dollar is trading unchanged at 101.60. We have support from 100.50/101.20 where I will again be a buyer with a 99.95 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Wrong! I was stopped out of my latest 16270 average short position at 16405 and I am now flat. The DAX keeps making new highs despite the sluggish economy. Retail Sales fell 0.8% in June, yet the DAX is trading higher. The DAX has further resistance from 16520/16600 where I will be a small seller with 16705 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
The boring sideways price action in the FTSE is back after a volatile few days trading the week before last. I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7570/7630 with the same 7495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. The Dow had an inside day following Thursday’s aggressive reversal lower. I am still short from Friday morning at 35368 with a now 35250 higher T/P level. I will add to this position at 35640 while leaving my 35805 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Much to my frustration the NDX rallied almost 2% on Friday. This move higher has me short at an average rate of 15675. I will leave my 15905 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 15590. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
My Bund call worked well as the market rallied to my 132.65 T/P level on Friday’s 132.00 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.30/132.00 with a lower 130.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase Gold higher, preferring to leave my 1920/1935 buy level unchanged with the same 1909 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from Thursday at a rate of 24.60. I will continue to look to add to this position at 23.80. My T/P level remains unchanged at 25.30. I have no stop on this position and if this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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